November 10, 2018
Summary: The gusty Santa Ana winds over the mountain areas have subsided with most locations over the Kern County mountains reporting winds of less than 15 MPH. this will be a very temporary situation as a new trough of low pressure is moving through the northern and central rockies, followed by another round of very cold air for this early in the season. By Sunday, surface high pressure will be setting up shop over the Great Basin and will be supported by north/northeast winds aloft which will enhance the Santa Anas. The only question for the San Joaquin Valley floor in Kern County is whether these winds make it all the way down to the flatland. With this last round, it was very close as strong winds buffeted areas near the mouth of the Grapevine, but only extended out a few miles along the valley floor. We will see a similar configuration Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with strong winds and very low dew points over the mountains, possibly making it all the way down into the extreme south valley. For now, it’s wise to just call this a chance and see what Mother Nature wants to do with the various players.
A strong upper high will be extending from off shore southern California Monday to northwest Canada, creating a north to south flow aloft, possibly even northeasterly. There is a reasonable chance dew points will lower even more, allowing additional locations to dip below freezing, especially Monday and Tuesday. The high will flatten out at midweek and weaken. The storm track will then move further south with some models indicating a closed low forming near central California by Friday and Saturday. However, if this occurs at all, it will be dry. The only chance of rain I see at all, at least on models, would be about the 22 through the 25 as a cold deep trough of low pressure is projected to move southward through California. Since it hasn’t rained since October 1, we are certainly way overdue.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday. Mostly clear skies continuing Monday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/30/71/30/72 | Reedley 71/31/70/30/71 | Dinuba 72/29/70/30/72 | |
| Porterville 73/31/71/30/72 | Lindsay 73/30/70/30/73 | Delano 73/33/72/32/72 | |
| Bakersfield 74/37/73/36/73 | Taft 73/45/73/39/73 | Arvin 75/37/74/37/73 | |
| Lamont 73/35/73/34/73 | Pixley 72/31/70/30/72 | Tulare 71/29/70/29/72 | |
| Woodlake 72/31/70/31/72 | Hanford 73/31/70/31/73 | Orosi 72/30/70/30/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/71 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 35/71 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/74 |
Friday
Mostly clear 37/73 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 39/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model still carries a low chance of precipitation for central California. However, it’s not quite as adamant as the string of previous model runs. The best way to word this is that there will be a low chance of precipitation with marginally above average temperatures.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Sunday morning. North of Kern County, winds will continue at or less than 7 MPH indefinitely, again with periods of near calm conditions. By later Sunday afternoon, the Santa Anas will again be pounding the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. The question again is whether these off shore winds make it to the Kern County portion of the San Joaquin Valley floor. This event may have a greater risk factor, especially down towards the bottom of the Grapevine and other passes along the Tehachapi Mountains. It they make it, it will be from Taft on the west to Highway 58 on the east. How far to the northwest these winds progress is always a challenge to predict. I would put the chance of winds making it to Bakersfield at roughly 30% and near 60% near the mouth of the Grapevine and other favored gaps and passes in the extreme south valley. For now, it looks like the greatest risk will be from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with light winds everywhere by Tuesday night.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost Discussion: Low to mid 30s were again widespread from the Kern County line north where winds were near calm. In Kern County, most locations were in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. Conditions tonight will be similar as the Santa Anas have died off, so for now I don’t look for radical changes in dew points through midday Sunday. Winds could make it back to the valley floor mid Sunday through early Tuesday with possibly marginally lower dewpoints north of the Kern/Tulare county line. By the time we get into Wednesday morning, we should see a westerly flow develop aloft, possibly mixing down a marginal amount of humidity, nudging dew points upward. Beyond Thursday, above freezing conditions are expected and possibly even a bit of cloud cover by the weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
34 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Mid 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity: Visalia: 25%/95% Bakersfield: 20%/65%
Actual Humidity November 9, 2018: Delano, %/ %, Porterville, 94%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100% tomorrow 100% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .90, Parlier .69, Blackwell .86, Lindcove .69, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .69, Delano .72 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 63, Blackwell 68, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 64, Delano 59
Record Temperatures: 83/35. Average Temperatures: 68/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 79 -109
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.5 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -0.83 Month to Date: .00 -.30
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.47. Month to Date: .00 -.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 15, Parlier, 35 , Arvin, 17 Shafter, 45 Stratford, 25, Lindcove, 10, Delano 27, Porterville, 56 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 4:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:20
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 74 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 74 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 57 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 73 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1545 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 99 0.17 13 1.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.25 24 1.04 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.17 14 1.23 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.08 6 1.27 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 11 0.10 11 0.93 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 4 0.06 7 0.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 4 0.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 93 0.00 0 0.43 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 74 0.32 35 0.91 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.21 23 0.92 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 37 0.04 4 0.94 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 10/pm