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Forecast

November 11, 2018/pm report

Summary: Winds at the CHP office near the bottom of the Grapevine have gusted to 56 MPH.  For now, anyway, it appears to be very localized.  The strongest pressure differences will be tonight through around midday Monday.  One model suggests winds gusting in the low 30s in the Bakersfield area tomorrow morning through midday.  Whether or not this comes to fruition remains to be seen.

 

Strong surface high pressure covers Nevada with considerably higher pressure off the southern California coast.  Just another classic Santa Ana wind event which should be over by Monday evening as pressures equalize between the coast and the interior.  Further north, winds are light with dew points near to marginally below what they were yesterday at this time.  There is an excellent chance of at least local frost again, especially north of the Kern/Tulare County line, but even there it will be spotty due to drainage winds off the Sierra.

 

In the big picture, a large upper high is building northward into western Canada and will reach southern Alaska and northwest Canada by Saturday morning.  This time, it’s a bit different, however, as the southern portion of this high will fortunately be over the interior west with coldest air masses moving into the Rockies and points eastward.  Anyway you shake all this out, it will be a dry  pattern, for sure.  However, later next week, there are hints of a change that could possibly bring low pressure systems in from the northwest, sliding southward  just off shore.  Depending upon the possible strength of these systems, rain is possible but at this point I feel uncomfortable putting that in the forecast.

 

Forecast: It will be mostly clear through Wednesday.  Generally clear skies will continue Wednesday night through Friday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 30/70/31/72 Reedley 32/70/31/71 Dinuba 30/69/29/70
Porterville 31/69/30/70 Lindsay 29/71/29/70 Delano 33/71/32/72
Bakersfield 36/71/35/73 Arvin 37/74/34/73 Taft 42/74/42/75
Lamont 34/71/33/73 Pixley 31/71/30/72 Tulare 28/70/28/71
Woodlake 29/71/29/72 Hanford 30/71/30/73 Orosi 29/71/30/72

 

Winds: Strong, gusty Santa Ana winds are commonplace through the mountains and valleys of southern California.  Windiest locations are currently reporting gusts in excess of 40 MPH.  pressure gradients will be tightest tonight then begin to slacken Monday afternoon.  These winds have hit the valley floor, but only in small areas like near the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine where winds have gusted to 56 MPH.  from this point on, it will be difficult to discern how much valley real estate these winds will eventually affect, but the bottom line is that similar configurations in the past have spread these winds even to a little north of Bakersfield.  We’ll just continue to forecast strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley, possibly increasing in coverage as the night wears on.  North of the Kern/Tulare County line, winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.  There may, however, be weak drainage winds out of the east off the Sierra Nevada foothills where the foothills meet the valley.  Basically, however, north of Kern County winds will not be a factor.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next week to ten days.

 

Frost Information: Dew points are all over the place, as compared to 24 hours ago.  For now, it appears temperatures in the particularly cold spots will remain low, but depending on primarily wind behavior, readings may be as much as 2 to 4 degrees warmer or colder tonight.  For now, I’ll go with the coldest locations back down into the mid to upper 20s with many locations in the low 30s.  it’s possible the valley portion of Kern County may be milder tonight, depending upon the behavior of the winds.

 

Coldest unprotected river bottom and like locations could potentially drop to 26 to 29 degrees overnight. Flatland topography not affected by local winds will generally be between 29 to 32.  Hillsides will again be freezing though perhaps just slightly above in the coldest regions.  As far as Tuesday morning is concerned, it will again be based on wind patterns and  mixing which could help to moderate the situation.  However, it does appear the very dry air mass currently in place will remain so with the coldest locations in the lower 30s Wednesday and Thursday.  There may be above freezing conditions Thursday and Friday.

 

For tonight, the inversion will be moderate with temperatures at 34 feet generally 3 to 5 degrees warmer.  The opposite will be true though where winds pick up as there would be no inversion at all.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

McFarland

31

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

31

Lindsay

29

Exeter

29

Famoso

34

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

33

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

32

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next Report: Monday morning, November 12