November 16, 2018
Summary: Very stable conditions prevail over central California. A warm bubble of subsiding air remains above the valley floor, trapping haze and areas of smoke in the lowest level of the atmosphere. Visibilities as of 1:00 pm were ranging from 2 ½ miles at Hanford to 5 miles at Porterville. Some areas of the north valley have excessive amounts of smoke in the area. Modesto and Stockton are each reporting a visibility of under a mile. The winds aloft continue to be very light and are generally out of the west. Freezing levels have also changed little and are still hovering at about 12,000 feet. Very little change will occur in the overall pattern through Monday with daytime highs marginally above average and overnight lows marginally below. Dew points all the way up and down the line this afternoon are in the low to mid 30s, plenty dry enough for areas of frost once again tonight. More on that below.
A low will begin to break down the high Tuesday, and eventually move through extreme southern California and northern Baja. The only impact here will be some high clouds. Models this afternoon are just not showing a really wet signature to a weather pattern coming up next Wednesday and through the Thanksgiving weekend. The main energy in the upper atmosphere will move into Oregon and northern California during this period with only a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.
Temperatures will turn cooler, however, as a strong northwest flow begins to take shape out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. There are possible longer term frost concerns that are detailed below.
Forecast: Other than periods of high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear and hazy through Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. Variable cloudiness Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving, mainly from Fresno County north. Mostly cloudy Thanksgiving night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/71/32/71 | Reedley 32/71/33/70 | Dinuba 31/69/31/68 | |
| Porterville 32/72/32/71 | Lindsay 31/73/32/71 | Delano 34/72/34/72 | |
| Bakersfield 42/73/44/72 | Arvin 37/74/37/72 | Taft 51/73/51/72 | |
| Lamont 39/74/39/72 | Pixley 33/73/33/72 | Tulare 31/70/31/71 | |
| Woodlake 32/70/32/69 | Hanford 32/71/32/70 | Orosi 31/71/31/70 | |
Winds: Expect winds either at or less than 7 MPH through Monday with occasional periods of near calm winds.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. Some models this afternoon only spit out a minimal chance of light showers Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving and mainly from Fresno County north. The flow in the upper atmosphere will be out of the west across the eastern Pacific Ocean and into Oregon and northern California. Even in northern California, as of now it does not appear rainfall amounts will be anything to write home about. Once we get towards the late part of the Thanksgiving weekend and towards the end of the month. There are too many model discrepancies to be able to accurately nail down a pattern. There will be a chance of showers during this period, however models this afternoon are not showing the strong low moving through between the 26 and 29 which had earlier shown up nicely.
The new two week model, though, still favors above average precipitation.
Frost Information: I have every reason to believe that tonight will be pretty much a carbon copy of the string of nights of late where low to mid 30s have been widespread. Coldest locations tonight potentially could drop to 29 to 31 with most other locations being in the low to mid 30s. Kern County will be a bit milder, dropping into the mid 30s to the lower 40s. dew points all the way up and down the line this afternoon are pretty uniform for a change with all locations reporting dew points in the low to mid 30s, indicating the very dry air mass is still very much with us. Look for similar conditions through Monday.
Above freezing conditions will begin Tuesday morning as a mild westerly flow develops with increasing amounts of cloud cover.
We’re still looking at the 28 through early December for a possible frost challenge period. The latest models don’t paint quite as dramatic a picture, showing a lower risk for a widespread frost or freeze event, but still do point to a colder weather pattern. For now, it doesn’t look critical weather is on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next Report: Saturday morning/November 17