November 17, 2018
Summary: Another quiet, calm weather day is ahead as we start out the day on the chilly side with most locations again in the low to mid 30s. A strong warm air inversion is still in place above the valley floor, trapping haze, smoke, and smog which, of course, just makes the air quality awful. There finally appears to be light at the end of the tunnel as the persistent high pressure ridge will begin to move eastward Monday night, allowing a weak low pressure system to move into southern California and northern Baja. There will be no active weather, but model trends are in the right direction now for rain for central California from possibly the Kern County mountains northward. A strong trough of low pressure will dig southward from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading precipitation over our region Wednesday afternoon, just in time for the Thanksgiving commute. Still, this system will be more of a blessing than a curse as rain appears likely, especially for Thanksgiving Day when the main cold air dynamics move through. This system will be quickly followed by a second colder system which should arrive late Thanksgiving night and Friday for another shot at showers. This one will bring lowering snow levels. It’s too early to discern just how much precipitation we could pick up, but it now appears northern California will do well and the Sierra Nevada, especially from Yosemite northward. Most models are currently keeping southern California south of Kern County dry.
About the 28th, some models are showing a high building northeastward into the Pacific Northwest while a dry low center develops over southern California. This will create a northeast flow aloft which could pump some considerably colder air into the valley. Theoretically, this could lead to some frost concerns. For now, we’ll just watch this for trends and discuss potential instead of discussing this as reality.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday night. Continued hazy. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with showers spreading in from the northwest. It appears now that showers will be likely Wednesday night through Thanksgiving Day with a chance of showers Thursday night and Friday. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/31/70/33/66 | Reedley 71/32/69/33/67 | Dinuba 68/31/69/31/66 | |
| Porterville 72/32/69/33/67 | Lindsay 71/31/70/32/68 | Delano 72/35/71/36/68 | |
| Bakersfield 73/44/71/44/69 | Taft 72/52/71/51/68 | Arvin 74/37/72/37/70 | |
| Lamont 73/39/70/38/70 | Pixley 72/32/70/33/68 | Tulare 68/30/69/31/66 | |
| Woodlake 71/32/69/32/67 | Hanford 71/33/69/34/66 | Orosi 71/31/69/31/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 43/69 |
Wednesday
PM showers likely 49/68 |
Thanksgiving Day
Showers likely 49/62 |
Friday
Chance of showers 48/65 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 40/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Expect winds of approximately 7 MPH or less through Tuesday.
Rain: Some decent trends are finally showing up on models pointing towards an increasing probability of rain and higher elevation snow for central California. The high will finally break down Monday through Tuesday, allowing a fairly strong trough of low pressure to dig southward into northern and central California Wednesday. The chance of measurable rain will really increase Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day, continuing through Friday night due to a secondary disturbance. It appears the southern limit of this event may be the Kern County mountains. Most models at this time show southern California remaining dry. Once we get past next Saturday, the best indications are that we will return to dry pattern for a while as yet another high builds along the Pacific coast. For now, it looks like the northern half of California could do pretty well with precipitation amounts, especially from Yosemite northward along the Sierra and Fresno northward in the valley.
Frost Discussion: Almost a carbon copy of previous nights is what we experienced last night. The coldest temperature I could find as of 6:30 was 29.9 at Ivanhoe with many other locations in the low to mid 30s. I would anticipate similar conditions Sunday and Monday mornings. There is one wild card, however, which comes in the form of high level clouds which are a bit more dense off the central and southern California coast. The winds aloft are very weak, generally out of the west, so it’s possible these clouds could be dense enough overnight for a marginally milder outcome. Whatever the case, conditions will remain safe. Once we get beyond Monday, all locations will be above freezing next week due to a progressively more active pattern coming in. clouds and precipitation will maintain above freezing conditions.
Some models are indicating a sharp ridge of high pressure will build northeastward along the Pacific Northwest while a low center develops over southern California starting about the 28. This, in turn, would create a northeast flow aloft, driving colder air into the region. This could potentially lead to frost concerns. Right now, it’s in the speculation stage as no real trends have developed this far out. But we will definitely watch this situation as we move forward.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
34 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 30%/95% Bakersfield 25%/60%
Actual Humidity November 16, 2018: Delano 82%/29% Porterville, 93%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80% tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .62, Parlier .56, Blackwell .64, Lindcove .53, Arvin .70, Orange Cove .63, Porterville .56, Delano .55 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 57, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 61, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 57, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 81/29. Average Temperatures: 64/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 176 -97
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.7 +1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.08 Month to Date: .00 -.55
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.61. Month to Date: .00 -.31
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 89, Parlier, 124 , Arvin, 84 Shafter, 129 Stratford, 104, Delano 112, Lindcove, 93, Porterville, 149. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:10
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / 70 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 70 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1544 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 77 0.76 46 1.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.72 54 1.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.81 55 1.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.09 6 1.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 8 0.10 8 1.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 3 0.06 5 1.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.02 3 0.61 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 71 T 0 0.56 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 55 0.40 33 1.22 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.23 20 1.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 28 0.04 3 1.25 13.95
Next report: Saturday, November 17/pm