November 18, 2018
Summary: Upper level high pressure is centered almost right overhead this morning with its warm bubble of subsiding air. The freezing level will come down marginally, but currently stands at 11,400 feet, possibly indicating a slight weakening of the high. A low is located roughly 1,000 miles west of the central coast and is rapidly moving southeastward . It will weaken as it approaches the northern Baja, California coast Monday and Tuesday. Even though there will be no active weather associated with this system, it will effectively remove the semi-permanent high-pressure system along the California coast, finally leading to rain in the valley and snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
As the first low moves inland late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, precipitation may become locally heavy over the foothills and mountains and possibly significant amounts may fall along the eastern sides of Fresno and Madera Counties. Through this entire event, the flow aloft will be out of the west, meaning the winds aloft will be lifted by the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada, resulting in a rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County, zapping the potential for significant precipitation.
The weather may quiet down a bit Thanksgiving then storm number two will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska. It now appears the main dynamics of this system will be just to our east. In other words, a classic inside slider. Nevertheless, if this low passes far enough to the west we could pick up some precipitation late Friday and Saturday. Unfortunately, the potential for significant rain is low.
Once we get beyond Saturday night, the chance of precipitation will decrease as the storm track migrates back into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Currently, it would appear the next chance of rain will occur the first week in December.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Monday night. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with rain from Fresno County northward and light showers and along the west side and in Kern County. Showers possible Thanksgiving Day, mainly along the east side north of Kern County. A chance of showers Thanksgiving night and at times through Saturday. Mostly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/32/66/36/69 | Reedley 70/31/65/35/68 | Dinuba 67/31/65/34/68 | |
| Porterville 70/32/66/36/69 | Lindsay 70/31/65/34/68 | Delano 70/34/65/36/69 | |
| Bakersfield 71/43/68/42/71 | Taft 70/49/68/48/71 | Arvin 71/39/69/41/71 | |
| Lamont 70/39/69/41/71 | Pixley 68/33/65/36/69 | Tulare 68/31/65/35/68 | |
| Woodlake 69/32/65/35/69 | Hanford 69/33/65/36/69 | Orosi 69/31/65/34/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Showers likely 50/68 |
Thanksgiving Day
Chance of showers 49/63 |
Friday
Chance of showers 48/63 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 47/62 |
Sunday
Mostly cloudy 46/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: The dry weather will continue through Tuesday night. Finally, precipitation will spread southeastward over the area Wednesday, continuing Wednesday night and tapering off Thanksgiving. A strong westerly flow at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will result in rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County where rainfall totals should be quite light, especially in Kern County. Generally, east of Highway 99 from Tulare County northward will have more significant rainfall potential. For now, I’ll go with .25 to .50, generally north of Visalia with lesser amounts further south. There will be a lull in the action Thanksgiving Day through the night. The next system appears to be a bit more disappointing as the main energy in the system will slide more to the east and into the Great Basin. Showers will continue to be likely along the Sierra Nevada, but the chances are considerably lower over the valley floor, especially south of Fresno County. At any rate, the chance of showers will continue through Saturday night with dry weather returning Sunday. After that, it looks like the next legitimate chance of rain will occur after December 1st as some models show the storm track moving south.
Frost Discussion: Last night was again quite chilly with widespread low to mid 30s in Madera, Fresno, Tulare Counties. Kern County was a bit milder, mainly due to high clouds that finally arrived after midnight. The only wild card for tonight’s forecast is mid and high level clouds. These clouds are bumping up against that ridge of high pressure over California. If they finally break through…which they have in Kern County…lows could be a bit milder tonight.
It’s possible all locations could be above freezing Tuesday morning due to increased cloud cover, but for now it’s not a given. At any rate, nothing dangerous is in the foreseeable future. An active weather pattern will develop Wednesday and lasting through the remainder of the week, keeping conditions above freezing. Unlike yesterday’s model, a cold pattern does not appear today. It had appeared that a northeast flow would develop, but most models are now showing winds aloft from late November to early December out of the west/northwest which would block potential cold air masses.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31` |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 35%/95% Bakersfield 30%/65%
Actual Humidity November 17, 2018: Delano NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .61, Parlier .56, Blackwell .62, Lindcove .52, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .56, Delano .53 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 61, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 64/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 188 -99
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.6 +1.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.11 Month to Date: .00 -.58
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.63. Month to Date: .00 -.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 97, Parlier, 132 , Arvin, 94 Shafter, 137 Stratford, 115, Delano 119, Lindcove, 101, Porterville, 163. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 4:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:08
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1609 / 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / M / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 72 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 73 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 74 0.78 45 1.73 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.72 52 1.38 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.82 54 1.52 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.21 13 1.57 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 8 0.31 26 1.21 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 3 0.17 14 1.18 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.63 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 69 0.16 28 0.58 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 53 0.40 31 1.27 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 3 0.23 19 1.18 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 27 0.05 4 1.30 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 19/am