November 19, 2018
Summary: Visibilities as of 1:00pm ranged from two miles at Hanford to four miles at Porterville. There are also considerable amounts of mid and high level clouds over all of central and southern California from a weakening low which will eventually move through northern Baja Tuesday morning. The sounding above Fresno has put the base of the overcast at near 20,000 feet. This will mean a milder night as this cloud cover does appear to be dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process. This may possibly put and end to the string of frost nights we’ve observed lately. By Wednesday morning, a strong trough of low pressure will begin to move onshore into northern and central California. This is still shaping up to be a significant precipitation event for northern California and also for central California, mainly north of Kern County.
The fact that a strong westerly flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be apparent means rain shadows will form along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County where rainfall amounts are expected to be quite light. The eastern side of Tulare, Fresno, and Madera Counties should record the heaviest amounts of rain as the air is again lifted as it approaches the Sierra Nevada. The most likely time for rain to be falling will be later Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving morning, tapering off after midday Thanksgiving. Precipitation should end later Thanksgiving through the night with another chance of showers Friday into Saturday morning. The main thrust of this system will be through Oregon and northern California so the chance of rain this time around will be mainly from Fresno County north.
Dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the weekend and well into next week. There are some pretty significant differences on models once again for late November and the first week of December. Models are at least giving a chance of rain from time to time with near to even marginally above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight through Tuesday night. Cloudy Wednesday through Thanksgiving morning with precipitation spreading over the area mainly Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon and night. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers Friday through Saturday morning, mainly from Fresno County north. Mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear Monday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/70/41/65 | Reedley 34/69/41/65 | Dinuba 34/68/40/66 | |
| Porterville 35/71/42/64 | Lindsay 33/68/39/67 | Delano 37/70/43/68 | |
| Bakersfield 45/72/48/68 | Arvin 42/73/49/69 | Taft 48/72/49/69 | |
| Lamont 41/72/44/68 | Pixley 36/70/41/67 | Tulare 33/68/40/64 | |
| Woodlake 35/69/41/65 | Hanford 37/70/42/66 | Orosi 34/68/41/64 | |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 7 MPH with near calm conditions at times through Tuesday. Winds late Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side north of Kern County. Winds Thursday will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range with some possible stronger gusts.
Rain: Finally, rain will begin Wednesday, possibly as early as sometime Wednesday morning north of Fresno, spreading over the area during the day and continuing on and off Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Dry weather will return later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. There is a chance of another round of showers from mainly Fresno County north on Friday into Saturday morning. The precipitation from this system will be more scattered and pretty light. Rainfall amounts in eastern Madera, Fresno, and Tulare Counties from basically about Exeter northward should be in the .25 to .33 range with possible .50 amounts, especially near the foothills. South of a Visalia/Exeter line, about .25 seems like a good possibility. Along the west side, I do anticipate a good rain shadow will develop with rainfall amounts to up to .25 from Wednesday through Thursday. Over the valley portion of Kern County, .10 to .20 seems plausible. Keep in mind, Bakersfield has had no measurable rain since last spring.
Dry weather will return by Saturday afternoon and will continue through at least the middle of next week. There are a decent number of model differences for late November and early December, but there is enough information to call for a reasonable chance of rain during this period.
Frost Information: I do believe this cloud deck above the valley floor which is based at about 20,000 feet will hold together pretty well tonight. All locations, as a result, will be above freezing. It is possible thin spots could develop sometime during the night which could conceivably lower temperatures in the cold spots down into the lower 30s, but by and large this should be the mildest night we’ve seen in a while. Above freezing conditions will also prevail Wednesday morning and through the remainder of the Thanksgiving weekend and more than likely through the middle of next week as a west or northwest flow continues. Nothing longer term at the moment pointing to a serious frost or freeze event.
Next Report: Tuesday morning/November 20