November 19, 2018
Summary: In the short term, upper level high pressure will continue to keep the warm air inversion in place and with it the haze and smoke. There are major changes in the wind, however. If you look at GOES 17 high resolution satellite imagery, what appears to be a well developed low pressure system shows up nicely about 500 miles west/southwest of Santa Barbara. This system will rapidly weaken over the next 24 hours as it moves through northern Baja late tonight and Tuesday. This system, even though it will be a DOA, will efficiently remove the blocking ridge which has been over us for the past two months. The first signs will occur later Tuesday night and early Wednesday as air quality and visibilities will improve from south to north as a south/southeast surface flow develops. In the meantime, a significant trough of low pressure will be diving southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California by late Tuesday and central California Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving morning with widespread precipitation. The flow aloft during this event will be out of the west/northwest, favoring strong rain shadow development along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County, so rainfall amounts in those regions are not expected to be significant. From Fresno County northward in the Sierra, heavier precipitation will occur with as much as 2 inches possible from Wednesday through Thursday. It appear snow levels will be about 6,000-7,000 feet.
Precipitation will taper off Thanksgiving Day then a second low pressure system will dive into the area Friday with the main dynamics slipping just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. The precipitation pattern Friday and Saturday will be scattered with just light amounts expected. On Saturday night and through much of next week, dry weather will return for a time, however models are still hinting at the possibility of more precipitation around the 29th and possibly on and off during the first week in December as a zonal flow sets up across the Pacific, potentially resulting in heavy precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and northern California and lesser amounts further south.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Tuesday and continued hazy. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night leading to an increasing chance of rain, especially Wednesday afternoon and night. Rain likely for a time Thanksgiving morning then becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thanksgiving afternoon through Saturday evening with a smaller risk of scattered showers. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/32/69/37/64 | Reedley 67/33/69/38/66 | Dinuba 66/32/69/37/64 | |
| Porterville 70/32/70/38/68 | Lindsay 69/31/69/36/65 | Delano 70/38/71/41/68 | |
| Bakersfield 70/42/72/46/70 | Taft 69/47/72/47/68 | Arvin 72/41/72/44/69 | |
| Lamont 71/40/73/44/70 | Pixley 69/32/69/37/65 | Tulare 67/31/69/36/64 | |
| Woodlake 68/32/69/38/64 | Hanford 68/33/69/39/66 | Orosi 67/32/69/38/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thanksgiving Day
AM rain 50/62 |
Friday
Chance of showers 49/64 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 48/63 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 47/63 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 44/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 26 through December 2: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions. Winds later Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be mainly out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially along the west side and from Fresno north. Winds Thanksgiving Day will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue through at least Tuesday night. The deeper we progress into Wednesday, the higher the risk of rain. Later Wednesday afternoon through Thanksgiving morning appear to be the time we’ve locked into as far as potential for significant precipitation. Rain fall totals Wednesday through Thursday in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and parts of Tulare County will range between .25 and .33 with locally as much as .50 in northern Fresno and Madera Counties. For now, only the west side of Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties look to pick up less than .25. Over the valley portion of Kern County, I expect only about .10 to .20. From Thursday afternoon through Saturday, there will be a reduced chance of showers and I don’t expect anything significant during that time frame. For now, it appears dry weather will return Saturday night and continue well into next week.
Some models indicate a system will try to push through about the 29th and medium range models are pointing in the direction of the possibility of multiple chances of rain the first week in December.
Frost Discussion: Last night was the same old song and dance. We could be a few degrees milder tonight if we observe enough cloud cover from a Pacific storm about 500 miles to the west/southwest of Santa Barbara. It’s entirely possible these clouds could be too thin, and for this forecast that is the assumption I’ll make in formulating numbers for tonight. Generally, the very coldest locations will be about 30 with many locations in the low to mid 30s. In Kern County, which has the greatest possibility of cloud cover, I expect mid 30s to lower 40s.
For Wednesday morning and beyond, all locations will finally be above freezing with abundant cloud cover and a Thanksgiving gift of rain. For now, there is nothing on the weather horizon which would favor a frost pattern, so easy sailing from this point on for now.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
34 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 35%/95% Bakersfield 30%/60%
Actual Humidity November 18, 2018: Delano, 87%/32% Porterville, 92%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .60, Parlier .56, Blackwell .63, Lindcove .54, Arvin NA, Orange Cove .64, Porterville .55, Delano .55 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 56, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 83/29. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 203 -98
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.3 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.15 Month to Date: .00 -.62
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.66. Month to Date: .00 -.36
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 101, Parlier, 136 , Arvin, 96 Shafter, 144 Stratford, 123, Delano 119, Lindcove, 105, Porterville, 171. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 4:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:07
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 73 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 67 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 72 0.78 44 1.79 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.72 50 1.43 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.82 53 1.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.21 13 1.61 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 8 0.31 25 1.25 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 3 0.17 14 1.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.66 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 67 0.16 27 0.60 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 51 0.40 30 1.32 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 2 0.23 19 1.22 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 26 0.05 4 1.34 13.95
Next report: Monday, November 19/pm