November 20, 2018
Summary: This is the last day of the horrible haze and smoke situation we’ve been enduring as the upper ridge along the west coast is beginning to break down. A rapidly weakening low is currently moving through Baja and is the system with enough muscle to finally break that ridge down. A trough is rapidly digging southward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and will begin to spread rain over northern and central California Wednesday afternoon with precipitation continuing Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning. Currently, it looks like Thursday afternoon and night will be dry, however a second storm system, which is also quite potent will be moving in further north for more significant precipitation for northern California and the northern and central Sierra Nevada. Showers will be likely Friday into Saturday morning, mainly from Fresno county northward with only a chance of light showers south of Fresno County. At any rate, this will be the first significant winter storm of the season, dumping between one and two feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada near Yosemite and eight to sixteen inches southward to the Kern County line. Potential rainfall amounts for the valley are discussed below.
The pattern will begin to dry up Saturday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over and along the west coast. This will form another warm air inversion. However, this time around, instead of dealing with haze and smoke, we will have haze and areas of night and morning fog. How extensive the fog will become is always a poker hand. But, with abundant moisture on the valley floor, the potential is certainly there for widespread fog.
Models are still showing a low pressure system moving into California either the 28th or the 29th. This doesn’t look like a blockbuster system, but it does seem to open the door for potentially more active weather the first week in December. Actually, from later November into December, a zonal flow shows up on some models. In other words, a west to east flow. Any storms out there would have the potential to move into California from time to time, which would be a sweet pattern for high Sierra snow and rain from time to time in the low lands.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hazy today. Increasing cloudiness late tonight. Rain spreading down the valley Wednesday afternoon. Rain at times Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning. Becoming mostly cloudy Thanksgiving afternoon and night. Showers likely Friday into Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday with potential areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/36/64/48/61 | Reedley 71/34/65/47/62 | Dinuba 69/32/65/44/61 | |
| Porterville 72/35/67/46/61 | Lindsay 70/32/67/45/62 | Delano 72/36/71/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 73/45/70/50/63 | Taft 72/50/70/52/62 | Arvin 74/41/72/49/63 | |
| Lamont 73/41/70/50/63 | Pixley 72/36/66/48/61 | Tulare 70/32/65/46/61 | |
| Woodlake 71/35/66/48/61 | Hanford 72/36/66/48/61 | Orosi 70/32/67/47/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Chance of showers 49/65 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 43/62 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 41/64 |
Monday
Areas of fog/hazy sunshine 37/63 |
Tuesday
AM fog/pm sun 37/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 26 through December 2: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds today will generally be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds late tonight into Thursday morning will be out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. there will be local gusts to 25 MPH from Fresno north and along the west side. Winds Thursday night through Friday will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: A big Thanksgiving blessing is at hand. The first major winter storm of the season will begin to bear down on northern and central California in about another 30 hours or so. Rain will begin to spread southward over the valley Wednesday afternoon, continuing on and off Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning. There could actually be locally heavy amounts, mainly in Madera and eastern Fresno Counties and, to a lesser extent, eastern Tulare County from roughly a Visalia/Exeter line northward. As much as ½ inch with locally ¾ of an inch could accumulate, especially near the base of the Sierra. The main flow aloft, or main dynamics, initially will be out of the southwest, creating a rain shadow in the south valley, mainly in Kern County and, to a lesser extent, up the west side. Even so, locations mainly further away from the coast range could pick up .25 to .33 with possibly as much as .25 over the valley portion of Kern County.
The rain will end about midday Thanksgiving Day with a temporary dry slot Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Storm number two will arrive late Thursday night and on through possibly early Saturday morning. This system will be tracking a bit further north, so the chance of showers from Fresno County north is pretty high, but south of that line, amounts, if any, will be quite light.
Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon and will continue well into next week. Some models are still pointing to a change about the 28 or 29, possibly a zonal or westerly flow may develop across the Pacific. This could move storms into northern and central California the first week of December. Right now, we’re just talking possibilities. The good thing is, the persistent high no longer shows up and so the potential of more rain down the road is certainly there.
Frost Discussion: This morning was a few degrees colder than anticipated due to the fact the cloud cover moved eastward quicker than expected, revealing clear skies during the early morning hours. It is possible a few locations could reach the 32 degree mark tonight. It will depend upon the arrival time of cloud cover from a major Pacific storm and how low level winds begin to react later tonight. At some point up ahead of this system, a southwest wind will develop, moving up the valley, blowing towards the low off shore. If this occurs early enough in the night, all locations will be above freezing. If winds remain near calm and that cloud deck remains off shore too long, then a few lower 30s will be possible which I will reflect in this forecast.
Blessed rain will begin tomorrow afternoon with an active pattern maintaining above freezing conditions through the remainder of the week. Upper level high pressure will take over the second half of the weekend and well into next week, creating the next warm air inversion. With expected abundant moisture on the valley floor, no doubt areas of fog will form.
Dew points will be much higher than we’ve become accustomed to, so I don’t look for freezing weather through the middle of next week. Models continue, in the longer term, to show either a west or northwest flow, keeping polar air masses well to our north and east.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
33 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
33 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 35%/95% Bakersfield 30%/60%
Actual Humidity November 18, 2018: Delano, 86%/43% Porterville, 94%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .53, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .51, Arvin .65, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .51, Delano .51 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 80/27. Average Temperatures: 63/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 219 -96
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 54.9 +0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.18 Month to Date: .00 -.65
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.68. Month to Date: .00 -.38
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 123, Parlier, 161 , Arvin, 105 Shafter, 159 Stratford, 137, Delano 145, Lindcove, 126, Porterville, 188. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:43 am Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 32 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1559 / 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 64 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 69 0.78 42 1.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.72 49 1.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.82 51 1.60 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.21 13 1.65 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 8 0.31 24 1.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 3 0.17 14 1.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 4 0.68 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 65 0.16 26 0.62 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 49 0.40 29 1.37 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 2 0.23 18 1.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 25 0.05 4 1.39 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, November 20/pm