November 21, 2018
Summary: Believe it or not, light showers are occurring in portions of Merced County and western Fresno County. Satellite imagery, however, shows a great deal of instability with the deeper moisture field still off the northern and central California coast. Showers will begin to spread down the valley this afternoon, reaching Kern County probably by sunset. The main thrust of this storm will move through tonight and early Thanksgiving morning then will taper off by midday.
A short slot of dry weather will begin Thursday afternoon into Thursday night then the next trough of low pressure will dig southeastward through the eastern Pacific and move inland into northern and, to a lesser extent, central California late Thursday night through Friday night with a small chance of a few lingering showers for a time Saturday morning. The main dynamics of this system will move inland from roughly a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with lighter precipitation further south.
Later Saturday and on through at least the middle of next week, a ridge of upper level high pressure will once again build over the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western 1/3 of the U.S. That will set the stage for increasing amounts of night and morning fog and there’s even a chance of widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon sunshine. The very short days and low sun angle will ensure that.
Beginning the 28th, a major Pacific storm will develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, developing a strong west to east jet stream right into northern and central California. This, if it comes to fruition, is an ideal pattern for heavy amounts of precipitation along the Sierra Nevada as the mid and upper level winds move over central California perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. This is also the type of pattern where multiple systems could move inland from the 28th through December 2nd. Models are also quite interesting for the 3rd through the 6th of December as a strong low shows up just west of San Francisco. This will be a slow mover, if it occurs at all, for potentially more significant precipitation
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. Showers spreading southward this afternoon, possibly reaching Kern County by sunset. Periods of rain tonight and for a time Thursday morning, possibly locally heavy at times in Madera and Fresno Counties. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon and night. Showers again Friday and Friday night, especially from Fresno County northward. A chance of a few lingering showers Saturday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning but remaining mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, mainly in Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
Madera 66/48/62/45/59 | Reedley 68/48/62/44/58 | Dinuba 66/47/61/43/57 | |
Porterville 70/48/63/43/62 | Lindsay 68/46/63/43/58 | Delano 70/49/62/45/60 | |
Bakersfield 72/50/62/45/61 | Taft 70/51/65/47/61 | Arvin 72/49/63/45/63 | |
Lamont 71/48/63/44/62 | Pixley 69/48/62/44/59 | Tulare 68/46/61/42/57 | |
Woodlake 68/48/61/42/59 | Hanford 68/49/62/44/58 | Orosi 68/47/62/43/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
AM showers possible 46/65 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 45/64 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 43/65 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 42/59 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 43/58 |
Two Week Outlook: November 28 through December 4: This model is depicting the greatest risk for showers will be right over central California, in fact it looks like it will have the greatest possibility of rain of any place in the U.S. at that time. This would mainly occur between the 26 and the 29. Temperatures should fall well below average, at least during the last half of this period.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH tonight and Thursday morning. Winds will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County north. There will be periods where winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Thursday through Friday night then will become out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts Saturday.
Rain: Doppler radar at this hour is depicting a few light showers in western Fresno County and up through Merced County. The main energy of this storm is still off shore. It will be moving inland later this afternoon and more especially tonight and early Thanksgiving morning. Dry weather will briefly return Thursday afternoon and evening. The chance of lighter showers will then begin later Thursday night through Friday night with possibly a few lingering showers early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts in Madera County, eastern Fresno County, and the northern half of Tulare County will range from .33 to possibly as much as .75 of an inch, especially from Fresno County north. With the anticipated rain shadow along the west side, possibly .25 to .33 is plausible there with .25 or less over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will set up again Saturday afternoon and more than likely through Thursday of next week. Models are still indicating a major change in the pattern for the 28th with a strong trough developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with the jet stream sweeping from west to east across the eastern Pacific and into California from the 28th through December 2nd. This could potentially result in multiple rounds of precipitation as waves of low pressure follow the jet stream then move inland. The fact that these upper winds will move inland pretty much perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada means there is potential for heavy amounts of snow over the high country and periods of heavy rain in the foothills and possibly heavy precipitation on the valley floor. From the 3rd through the 5th, some models are showing a powerful low west of San Francisco which could possibly result in more rain and, this time, strong, gusty winds.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 for the next week to ten days or longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Porterville: 40%/95% Bakersfield 30%/80%
Actual Humidity November 20, 2018: Delano, 86%/24% Porterville, 95%/19%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .55, Parlier .53, Blackwell .58, Lindcove .51, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .51, Delano .51 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 81/30. Average Temperatures: 63/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 232 -98
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 54.8 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.22 Month to Date: .00 -.69
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .00, or -.70. Month to Date: .00 -.40
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 133, Parlier, 174 , Arvin, 112 Shafter, 171 Stratford, 148, Delano 158, Lindcove, 138, Porterville, 200. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:44 am Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:03
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 73 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 33 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 75 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 1.28 67 0.78 41 1.91 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.01 1 0.72 47 1.53 13.11
MERCED 0.00 T 0 0.82 50 1.64 12.50
MADERA 0.00 T 0 0.21 12 1.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 8 0.31 23 1.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.04 3 0.17 13 1.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 4 0.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 63 0.16 25 0.64 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.67 47 0.40 28 1.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.03 2 0.23 18 1.28 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.35 24 0.05 3 1.44 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, November 20/pm