We will be out of the office the remainder of Thanksgiving Day. We hope you have a blessed holiday. John and Trudy
November 22, 2018
Summary: The first significant winter storm of the season has moved into the Sierra Nevada where numerous showers continue this morning from Tulare County north. The precipitation has pretty much ended on the valley floor. For the remainder of the day into tonight, a dry Thanksgiving Day will be observed with very acceptable temperatures. Rainfall amounts north of Kern County in many cases exceeded the half inch mark, so for the first major storm, it was a great success.
The next chance of rain will begin to increase late tonight through early Saturday morning. This next system is also a strong one and will dump heavy amounts of rain over northern California and along the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County northward with lesser amounts further south. The more northern trajectory of this system means the southern half of the valley only has a minimal chance of light showers Friday and Friday night.
A ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the west Saturday and will dominate our weather through Tuesday. With a soaking wet valley floor, and much higher dew points along with a strong inversion, fog may well become widespread, especially Monday and Tuesday.
The next change in the overall pattern will occur at midweek due to a developing low that will stretch from the Gulf of Alaska eventually into central California. The main low center will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a west to east jet stream moving into northern and central California. This is a very favorable pattern for significant amounts of precipitation from time to time beginning Wednesday night and lasting through next weekend.
Models are all over the place in determining a pattern for the 3rd through the 6th of December. Some show wet weather while others do not. Throw the two week model into the scenario and there is at least a marginally high probability of rain during that time frame.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today with a chance of showers for a time this morning, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Increasing cloudiness later tonight. Showers likely late tonight through early Saturday, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday night with increasing amounts of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday, especially from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/46/58/46/61 | Reedley 62/46/59/49/62 | Dinuba 61/43/57/46/60 | |
| Porterville 63/45/58/47/62 | Lindsay 63/45/59/49/62 | Delano 64/46/59/50/61 | |
| Bakersfield 64/48/60/52/63 | Taft 63/49/61/52/62 | Arvin 65/45/61/52/63 | |
| Lamont 64/46/62/53/62 | Pixley 63/47/61/49/62 | Tulare 62/44/58/48/61 | |
| Woodlake 62/44/58/47/61 | Hanford 64/45/59/49/62 | Orosi 62/45/58/48/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 48/65 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 46/62 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 47/58` |
Wednesday
PM showers possible 49/67 |
Thursday
Chance of rain 50/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 29 through December 5: This model is still suggesting a better than even chance of rain from late November through early December. Temperatures during this period should be near to marginally above average.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH through this evening. Winds will then be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH later tonight through Friday night. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, becoming light and variable Saturday night through Sunday.
Rain: Significant amounts of precipitation have been recorded overnight. The rainfall amounts I have are only through midnight as some reports were difficult to get because of the Thanksgiving holiday. I did get one late report from Fresno where .57 were recorded. That tally could be higher by now. Other locations were Stratford .21, Parlier .30, Lindcove .34, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .06, Delano .08, with most locations in Kern County recording less than .10. Bakersfield at last report had recorded just .05.
The first major winter storm of the season is pretty much history as today will be dry with the exception of the Sierra Nevada where showers will linger this morning. The chance of light showers will begin to increase from Fresno County northward late tonight and continuing through early Saturday. The chance of measurable rain south of Fresno County is pretty low as this system, unfortunately, is tracking further north.
Dry weather will encompass most of Saturday and on through early Wednesday of next week. Models are still pointing at a big low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and possibly a strong jet stream running west to east into northern and central California. Even though models differ quite a bit, we could see multiple rounds of precipitation from the 28 through December 2nd. Beyond that, there are many model differences, but using the two week model as a guide, the risk factor during this period seems marginally high.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 for the next week to ten days or longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 50%/90% Bakersfield 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 21, 2018: Delano, 97%/27% Porterville, 95%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .53, Parlier .51, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .49, Arvin .62, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .50, Delano .51 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 56, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 77/28. Average Temperatures: 62/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 244 -101
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 54.6 +1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: .57 season. or -0.79 Month to Date: .73 -.26
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .05, or -.67. Month to Date: .05 -.37
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 142, Parlier, 182 , Arvin, 119 Shafter, 179 Stratford, 156, Delano 166, Lindcove, 146, Porterville, 208. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:45 am Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 42 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 36 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 40 / 0.08 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 1.28 65 0.78 40 1.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 0.02 1 0.72 46 1.58 13.11
MERCED T T 0 0.82 49 1.69 12.50
MADERA 0.08 0.08 5 0.21 12 1.74 12.02
FRESNO T 0.10 7 0.31 23 1.36 11.50
HANFORD T 0.04 3 0.17 13 1.31 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 4 0.72 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.40 62 0.16 25 0.65 5.18
SALINAS T 0.67 45 0.40 27 1.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 0.05 4 0.23 17 1.32 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 0.35 23 0.05 3 1.49 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 23/am