November 23, 2018
Summary: Periods of light rain are still moving through northern and central California, mainly as far south as Fresno County. Precipitation was moving northwest to southeast. The continuing low risk of light showers will be there tonight south of Fresno County and even from Fresno County northward, amounts will be fairly light as the main dynamics of this system continue to move into Oregon and northern California. Some lingering showers may be apparent for a time Saturday morning, but as the trough finally shifts to the east of the Sierra Nevada, dry weather will begin by midday Saturday and continue through at least Tuesday night as a weak ridge of upper level high pressure builds in from the west. A weak low will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night, but too far to the north to produce precipitation over the central valley. That will all begin to change Wednesday through Friday as models are still showing a strong low developing off the north/central California coast by Wednesday night. One model is showing an atmospheric river of air trying to move into central California Thursday. That, of course, would enhance the potential for heavier rainfall amounts in the valley and heavy snow over the high country.
The position of this low would still favor strong winds in Kern County and up the west side. It’s not quite as favorable as I observed yesterday at this time and not quite as strong, in other words, fewer isobars on surface charts, but it’s still something to monitor closely.
Once this storm moves east of the Sierra Nevada Friday, dry weather will return over the weekend. Earlier models were depicting a good potential for rain the first week in December, however that does not appear to be the case now as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds eastward into California and eventually the interior west. Through this time frame, the winds aloft will be largely either out of the west or northwest, maintaining fairly mild conditions.
Beginning next weekend, fog and/or low clouds may become more entrenched in the valley as upper level high pressure forms a cap, sealing all that moisture in the lower couple thousand feet.
Forecast: Periods of light rain tonight from Fresno County northward. Just a small chance of a few light showers south of Fresno County. A chance of a few lingering showers for a time Saturday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning except remaining mostly cloudy over most of Tulare and Kern Counties into Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain during the afternoon. Rain likely at times Wednesday night through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times, with areas of strong, gusty winds possible in Kern County and up the west side.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/63/49/62 | Reedley 51/64/49/62 | Dinuba 49/63/48/61 | |
| Porterville 50/65/48/63 | Lindsay 49/64/48/63 | Delano 51/64/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 53/65/50/64 | Arvin 52/66/50/65 | Taft 53/65/51/64 | |
| Lamont 52/64/50/64 | Pixley 50/63/49/62 | Tulare 49/63/49/61 | |
| Woodlake 50/64/50/62 | Hanford 51/65/50/62 | Orosi 49/63/48/61 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH then will be mostly out of the northwest Saturday at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally less than 6 MPH with long periods of near calm conditions.
We are still monitoring the forecast, especially surface models, for late Wednesday night through early Friday. As compared to 24 hours ago, models are not quite as strong on the potential for strong, gusty south to southeast winds over the valley portion of Kern County and up the west side during this time frame. By midday Friday, the threat of significant winds should be over.
Rain: Periods of light rain will continue through the night from Fresno County north. South of Fresno County, only a slight chance of widely scattered light showers exists. From this point on, from Fresno County north, anywhere from .10 to .25 is possible, especially in Madera County. South of Fresno County, only a few hundredths are possible. Lingering showers will continue for a time Saturday morning. By midday, any shower activity should be confined to the Sierra Nevada. Expect dry weather from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday, especially during the second half of the day. For now, Thursday through Friday still looks like a very wet period with .50 plus totals possible on the valley floor and possibly as much as two to three inches in the foothills and mountains. The rain will taper off late Friday with dry weather beginning Saturday. Unfortunately, it appears from Saturday on, dry weather will return as upper level high pressure takes over the eastern Pacific Ocean and builds inland through California. The main storm track will then move north of us into Washington and Oregon.
Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing for the next week to ten days.
Next Report: Saturday morning/November 24
November 23, 2018
Summary: Periods of light rain are still moving through northern and central California, mainly as far south as Fresno County. Precipitation was moving northwest to southeast. The continuing low risk of light showers will be there tonight south of Fresno County and even from Fresno County northward, amounts will be fairly light as the main dynamics of this system continue to move into Oregon and northern California. Some lingering showers may be apparent for a time Saturday morning, but as the trough finally shifts to the east of the Sierra Nevada, dry weather will begin by midday Saturday and continue through at least Tuesday night as a weak ridge of upper level high pressure builds in from the west. A weak low will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night, but too far to the north to produce precipitation over the central valley. That will all begin to change Wednesday through Friday as models are still showing a strong low developing off the north/central California coast by Wednesday night. One model is showing an atmospheric river of air trying to move into central California Thursday. That, of course, would enhance the potential for heavier rainfall amounts in the valley and heavy snow over the high country.
The position of this low would still favor strong winds in Kern County and up the west side. It’s not quite as favorable as I observed yesterday at this time and not quite as strong, in other words, fewer isobars on surface charts, but it’s still something to monitor closely.
Once this storm moves east of the Sierra Nevada Friday, dry weather will return over the weekend. Earlier models were depicting a good potential for rain the first week in December, however that does not appear to be the case now as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds eastward into California and eventually the interior west. Through this time frame, the winds aloft will be largely either out of the west or northwest, maintaining fairly mild conditions.
Beginning next weekend, fog and/or low clouds may become more entrenched in the valley as upper level high pressure forms a cap, sealing all that moisture in the lower couple thousand feet.
Forecast: Periods of light rain tonight from Fresno County northward. Just a small chance of a few light showers south of Fresno County. A chance of a few lingering showers for a time Saturday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning except remaining mostly cloudy over most of Tulare and Kern Counties into Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain during the afternoon. Rain likely at times Wednesday night through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times, with areas of strong, gusty winds possible in Kern County and up the west side.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/63/49/62 | Reedley 51/64/49/62 | Dinuba 49/63/48/61 | |
| Porterville 50/65/48/63 | Lindsay 49/64/48/63 | Delano 51/64/48/63 | |
| Bakersfield 53/65/50/64 | Arvin 52/66/50/65 | Taft 53/65/51/64 | |
| Lamont 52/64/50/64 | Pixley 50/63/49/62 | Tulare 49/63/49/61 | |
| Woodlake 50/64/50/62 | Hanford 51/65/50/62 | Orosi 49/63/48/61 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 MPH then will be mostly out of the northwest Saturday at 5 to 12 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally less than 6 MPH with long periods of near calm conditions.
We are still monitoring the forecast, especially surface models, for late Wednesday night through early Friday. As compared to 24 hours ago, models are not quite as strong on the potential for strong, gusty south to southeast winds over the valley portion of Kern County and up the west side during this time frame. By midday Friday, the threat of significant winds should be over.
Rain: Periods of light rain will continue through the night from Fresno County north. South of Fresno County, only a slight chance of widely scattered light showers exists. From this point on, from Fresno County north, anywhere from .10 to .25 is possible, especially in Madera County. South of Fresno County, only a few hundredths are possible. Lingering showers will continue for a time Saturday morning. By midday, any shower activity should be confined to the Sierra Nevada. Expect dry weather from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday, especially during the second half of the day. For now, Thursday through Friday still looks like a very wet period with .50 plus totals possible on the valley floor and possibly as much as two to three inches in the foothills and mountains. The rain will taper off late Friday with dry weather beginning Saturday. Unfortunately, it appears from Saturday on, dry weather will return as upper level high pressure takes over the eastern Pacific Ocean and builds inland through California. The main storm track will then move north of us into Washington and Oregon.
Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing for the next week to ten days.
Next Report: Saturday morning/November 24