November 23, 2018
Summary: As of the time of this writing, light rain had spread as far south as Monterey along the coast and just north of Merced inland. As the day progresses and a low pressure system moves through, the northern half of California will see light showers become more widespread. I’m still going with just a minimal chance of light showers in the south valley. If they occur at all, probably a few hundredths of an inch would be recorded. The main emphasis of this storm is through northern California. The low will move into northern and central Nevada by early Saturday. A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will then build in from the west, shoving the storm track further north for a few days.
Wednesday still appears to be the turnaround day as the chance of rain will then increase. One weak weather system will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night, probably not producing precipitation. However, models indicate an impressive system west of San Francisco by Thursday and some models place the center of circulation right over central California Saturday. If this model comes to fruition, we would not only see significant rain in central California, but also the potential for a high wind event. Since this is five or six days out, much can change between now and then, but the configuration on the surface chart was rather ominous for wind in Kern County and up the west side.
After the second of December, most models are backing off potential storminess.
Forecast: Cloudy with light showers spreading southward to about Fresno County through tonight with only a small chance of light showers south of Fresno County. A small chance of showers from Fresno County north on Saturday morning, becoming mostly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday morning but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties through at least midday Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday morning with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of showers, mainly Wednesday afternoon and night. Rain likely Thursday through Friday with the potential for strong gusty winds.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/49/62/46/62 | Reedley 62/50/64/47/62 | Dinuba 59/49/63/45/61 | |
| Porterville 62/50/64/48/64 | Lindsay 63/49/64/47/63 | Delano 63/50/64/48/64 | |
| Bakersfield 64/53/64/50/64 | Taft 64/53/64/51/64 | Arvin 65/51/65/50/64 | |
| Lamont 64/51/63/50/64 | Pixley 63/50/64/48/62 | Tulare 61/49/62/46/61 | |
| Woodlake 60/48/63/45/62 | Hanford 61/50/63/46/62 | Orosi 60/49/63/46/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/pm sun 45/63 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 44/63 |
Wednesday
PM showers likely 48/67 |
Thursday
Rain likely 50/65 |
Friday
Rain likely 51/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 30 through December 6: There is one notable switch on this model. It portrays below average temperatures for the first week in December. One piece of good news is that it also continues to show at least a marginally higher potential for rain during this time frame.
November: This model really does not give much of a grasp on chances for precipitation. It does indicate rain will be below average over the Pacific Northwest which would tend to lean towards a below average precipitation period for central California as well. As usual, these long range models indicate above average temperatures.
November, December January: According to this model, temperatures overall will be above average, indicating higher than average pressures over the Golden State. Precipitation, with a little bit of luck, should at least range near seasonal averages. However, what concerns me a bit is this model shows drier than average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest. Usually, this does not bode well for decent rains for California.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast tonight and tonight at 5 to 15 MPH with periods of lighter winds. Winds Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing Saturday evening. Winds Saturday night through Monday will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
I do feel it necessary to point towards late Wednesday night through Friday morning of next week. Models show a powerful low forming west of San Francisco. This is the proper configuration for high winds in Kern County and up the west side. We’re much too far away from this potential event and much could change between now and then. Still, I believe I would be irresponsible in not mentioning this even though we’re just discussing this as a chance for the moment.
Rain: Light showers will spread down Fresno County today and tonight, however amounts will no doubt be less than .25 at most locations. The chance of showers south of Fresno County is low, although I cannot rule out a few hundredths at some locations between now and early Saturday.
Dry weather will return Saturday night through Monday night. A weak weather system will move through northern California Tuesday through Tuesday night. For now, precipitation appears doubtful with this system. It’s Wednesday through Saturday which appears to be an intriguing time frame. We’re looking at the possible development of a very strong low west of San Francisco. The potential for significant rain over central California will certainly be there. There will also be the potential for strong winds which could produce big time rain shadows.
After the 2nd, models are showing the pattern drying up as high pressure builds in from the west.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 for the next week to ten days or longer.
Next report: Friday, November 23/pm