November 24, 2018
Summary: Much of the west side north of Kern County and portions of central Fresno County along with extreme western Tulare County have cleared. Most of Tulare County, eastern Fresno County, and the valley portion of Kern County still have mostly cloudy skies. In fact, some light upslope showers are occurring along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Much of the cloud cover, especially over Tulare and Kern Counties, may not clear until after midday Sunday. Where it does clear tonight on the west side and in portions of the central valley, dense fog will have no problem forming as dew points are way up in the low to mid 50s throughout the five county area.
Upper level high pressure is already beginning to move in from the west, but it is a progressive system, meaning it is on the move and will be east of the Sierra Nevada by early Tuesday morning. A weak trough will move through northern California Tuesday and Tuesday night for increasing amounts of cloud cover, but for now I don’t anticipate any precipitation until Wednesday, especially later in the afternoon. Some models for later Wednesday night through Thursday night are quite interesting. A couple of models show an atmospheric river of air, albeit a short one, forming along the central coast and moving directly into central California. This could lead to heavy rain in the mountains and possibly significant amounts of rain on the valley floor. All the action will wind down in a hurry Friday morning.
The other element of this storm we’re studying very closely is the potential for wind. One model suggested sustained winds of 27 MPH at Fresno during the day Thursday and 22 MPH in Bakersfield. With sustained winds possibly this strong, gusts in the 30s to even lower 40s cannot be ruled out. What’s interesting this afternoon is the fact that strong winds are shown along the east side as well as the west side, which is a bit unusual. Whether or not this comes to fruition is a bit early to tell. I still believe there’s a chance of strong, gusty winds over the valley portion of Kern County Thursday and Thursday evening. For now, I don’t want to forecast velocities, not until we‘re closer in time.
A weak low may move into northern California for a minimal chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north, Saturday. Sunday looks dry, along with the early part of next week, which means fog and low clouds will have no problem forming.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy in Tulare and Kern Counties through Sunday morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy elsewhere. Becoming mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of rain sometime Wednesday afternoon. Periods of rain likely Wednesday night through Thursday night, possibly locally heavy at times with strong gusty winds possible. A few lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/62/41/63 | Reedley 51/63/44/63 | Dinuba 49/61/42/62 | |
| Porterville 50/64/41/65 | Lindsay 49/64/40/66 | Delano 52/64/44/63 | |
| Bakersfield 53/65/45/67 | Arvin 51/65/43/68 | Taft 53/65/49/67 | |
| Lamont 52/65/45/67 | Pixley 51/64/41/65 | Tulare 49/62/41/64 | |
| Woodlake 48/63/40/64 | Hanford 51/63/42/65 | Orosi 50/63/40/64 | |
Winds: winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with extended periods of near calm conditions. Beginning Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday evening, the potential for strong, gusty winds will begin to pick up. What is interesting about this possible event is the fact that models are showing these winds throughout the San Joaquin Valley, including eastern Tulare County which is unusual. One model spit out a number of 27 MPH sustained at Fresno on Thursday and 22 MPH at Bakersfield. Sustained winds in the 20s typically have gusts well into the 30s, possibly into the lower 40s. of course, the area we always watch under these configurations is the valley portion of Kern County where downslope winds occur off the Tehachapi Mountains. Sometimes they reach the valley floor, other times they don’t. for now, the risk factor seems higher than other patterns we’ve seen this winter. The best I can do is 50/50 for strong winds, especially the closer you get to the base of the mountains. Winds will die off quickly later Thursday night with much lighter winds Friday and beyond.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Tuesday night. The chance of rain will begin to increase from Fresno northward Wednesday afternoon, becoming likely throughout the valley later Wednesday night. Some models actually show a short atmospheric river of air forming off the central coast, moving inland Thursday. This would certainly increase the potential for very significant amounts of rain and higher elevation snow. On the flip side, this event does appear to have the possibility of strong surface winds. Typically, when you see strong, gusty winds headed towards the center of the low, you get big time rain shadows in the south valley and along the west side. A few lingering showers may continue into Friday morning.
A much weaker trough will move through the northern half of California Saturday for a chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County. Models are still having difficulties for the first week of December. It does look like the first half of the following week will be dry.
Frost Information: All locations will be above freezing for the next week to ten days.
Next Report: Sunday morning/November 25