November 27, 2018
Summary: Light showers have spread as far south as the northern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon. A few showers may reach as far south as Fresno County tonight, but it appears conditions will remain dry, at least for tonight anyway. Satellite imagery is quite telling this afternoon as it depicts a rapidly developing low pressure system several hundred miles off the north central coast/moving steadily east/southeast. Short term models continue to indicate there will be large differences in surface pressure between the low and southern California. High wind watches have been hoisted from Monterey County northward where winds are expected to gust to 50 to 60 MPH range. Strong winds will spread down the valley Thursday, generally in the 15 to 30 MPH category, but stronger gusts are certainly possible, especially towards the center and west side of the valley and over the valley portion of Kern County. The trick in the wind forecast for Kern is the anticipation of strong downslope winds blowing off the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains. Sometimes these winds can crash right down into the valley, but other times they don’t. the configuration necessary for one of these wind events is certainly there on paper. Winds of 50 to 60 MPH would not be a surprise near the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly other locations right at the lip of the Tehachapis. All I can do is take a wait and see attitude towards this but again, emphasize that the configuration from Thursday into Thursday evening is certainly there.
Precipitation has the potential for being quite heavy. However, if those strong winds develop, especially in the south valley, they would create a rain shadow, greatly reducing rain totals there. Elsewhere, .50 to 1.00 is certainly possible.
The flow behind this system will be out of the west/northwest, which will maintain upslope showers along the west facing slopes of the Sierras and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. There will be a short break Friday night before showers spread over the valley again Saturday into early Sunday. The origins of this storm are from the Gulf of Alaska, so the potential for heavy precipitation is much lower. However, snow levels along the Sierras and the Kern County mountains could drop to 3,000 to 4,000 feet, especially Saturday night and early Sunday.
Dry weather will return by midday Sunday and will more than likely continue through Thursday of next week. With weak upper level high pressure trying to build in, fog will become a challenge during the first half of next week.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight with a slight chance of light showers from Fresno County north. A chance of rain Wednesday morning. Becoming likely in the afternoon. Rain Wednesday night and Thursday, heavy at times. Showers Thursday night into Friday morning. Mostly cloudy Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Showers spreading over the area later Saturday into Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/59/50/60 | Reedley 48/60/52/61 | Dinuba 48/59/50/59 | |
| Porterville 48/62/52/62 | Lindsay 47/62/52/61 | Delano 49/63/52/62 | |
| Bakersfield 50/66/53/63 | Arvin 48/66/54/64 | Taft 51/65/53/62 | |
| Lamont 50/66/53/63 | Pixley 50/62/52/61 | Tulare 48/59/50/60 | |
| Woodlake 47/60/51/61 | Hanford 49/60/52/62 | Orosi 47/61/50/61 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast tonight at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH later Wednesday afternoon. By late Wednesday night and on through Thursday, expect strong gusty southeast winds ranging from 15 to 30 MPH with possibly much stronger gusts, especially along the center and west side of the valley. The wind forecast for Kern County is challenging, from Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Strong, downslope winds will begin along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis, possibly moving out into the valley as far north as Bakersfield. Gusts of 50 to 60 MPH are possible near the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly 30 to 40 MPH winds as far north as Bakersfield. It’s always a monumental task to try to determine if these downslope winds will make it down to the valley floor, but the configuration on surface models are proper for this to potentially occur. Winds will die off to 15 to 30 MPH Thursday night and Friday and 10 to 15 MPH Friday night and Saturday.
Rain: High resolution short term models are still indicating a significant rain even t for the valley floor from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Strong winds will also be a factor in some areas and may form rain shadows in the south valley and along the west side. Even so, high resolution models are still trending towards .50 to 1.00 totals north of Kern County and generally east of Highway 99. Amounts of more than .50 are possible along the west side of Fresno County and much of Kings County. Amounts over the valley portion of Kern County will be highly shaped by possible rain shadows. Even with this, models are still indicating as much as .50 could fall in this area. There will be a short dry slot Friday afternoon and night before a colder low pressure system moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and slides into northern and central California Saturday and early Sunday. Precipitation amounts with this system should be considerably less. Snow levels may drop to as low as 3,000 to 4,000 feet Saturday night and Sunday morning. It still looks like there will be dry weather from Sunday night through Thursday.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through at least Sunday morning and even Monday through Wednesday of next week do not appear to be quite as cold. Over the past couple of days, it had appeared a north to south flow would inject cold air into California. However, models are now indicating more of a northwest flow. This is still chilly, but nothing threatening. Low to mid 30s will certainly be possible Monday through Wednesday of next week with a small chance of upper 20s in the usual trouble spots. For now, even medium range outlooks through next week are showing a west to northwest flow, maintaining largely above freezing conditions.
Next Report: Wednesday morning/November 28