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Forecast

November 28, 2018/pm report

November 28, 2018

Summary: A steady stream of subtropical moisture has formed a train across the eastern Pacific Ocean then inland from Monterey County on the north to San Luis Obispo County on the south.  In the valley and over the Sierra it’s Madera on the north and roughly Visalia on the south.  This moisture is supported by a 130 knot jet stream which is flanked underneath a powerful low which will approach the coast just north of San Francisco late tonight and Thursday morning.  There may be a brief break in the rain later tonight as this feed of moisture we’re currently under moves southward as the low approaches from the northwest.  Strong differences in pressure will increase tonight and Thursday morning, spawning strong, gusty, south to southeast winds throughout the valley.  Interestingly enough, one model shows sustained winds of 27 MPH at Porterville tomorrow morning which is just as high as any location in the valley with the exception of Kern County where the potential for high winds will especially begin after midnight and lasting from mid to late morning Thursday.  There are models showing sustained winds of 28 MPH at Bakersfield, gusting to 40 MPH near sunrise and a few hours thereafter.  In the extreme south valley, the pattern is proper for 60 plus MPH winds at the bottom of the Grapevine and locally elsewhere.

 

Precipitation has already been heavy over Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno Counties.  As of 11:00am, Madera had already picked up .55, Fresno .65, Hanford .26, with just a trace at Bakersfield.  Yosemite by that same time had already tallied 1.17, Mariposa .80, Oakhurst .80, and Shaver Lake .79.  by now all of these locations have already recorded well over an inch of rain.

 

Satellite imagery indicates a classic comma shaped cloud deck wrapping around the eastern and northern sectors of the storm.  This will slam us late tonight or tomorrow morning with waves of locally heavy rain and very heavy precipitation continuing in the foothills and over the high Sierra where as much as two to three feet of new snow is expected.

 

The rain will break off into showers Thursday afternoon.  Models continue to show a marginal risk of thunderstorms for Thursday afternoon and evening.  Showers will begin to taper off later Thursday night with dry weather Friday through Friday night.  Storm number two will roll right down the coast of British Columbia into western Washington and Oregon then into northern and central California Saturday and Saturday night.  The rainfall pattern with this system will be more showery so the possibility of this being a big rain event is low.

 

Dry weather will finally return by Sunday morning but possibly will not last long.  A brief ridge will pop up along the west coast Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday.  Models are showing another low moving into California late Tuesday night into Thursday.  Models this afternoon are showing it moving in a bit further north but with a continued risk of rain.

 

The two week model is interesting this afternoon.  It indicates northern and central California will have the greatest potential for rain of any location in the continental U.S. during this period.

 

Forecast: Rain tonight through about midmorning Thursday, locally heavy at times, especially from roughly midnight through 8:00am.  Expect strong gusty winds to develop overnight and continue Thursday morning.  Showers Thursday afternoon and evening with the possibility of a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.  Showers tapering off later Thursday night.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday through Friday night.  Increasing cloudiness Saturday with showers spreading over the area again from late morning on through Saturday night with a chance of lingering showers Sunday morning.  Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through early Tuesday.  Increasing cloudiness late Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                            

Madera 53/60/45/57 Reedley 54/61/46/57 Dinuba 53/59/45/57
Porterville 54/61/45/58 Lindsay 53/61/45/58 Delano 55/62/47/58
Bakersfield 56/63/47/57 Arvin 55/63/46/57 Taft 56/63/51/57
Lamont 55/62/47/57 Pixley 54/62/45/56 Tulare 53/60/44/56
Woodlake 54/60/45/57 Hanford 55/61/46/58 Orosi 53/60/44/57

 

Winds: Winds from Fresno County north this afternoon are generally out of the southeast at around 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  These winds will steadily increase during the night with many locations experiencing winds in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts.  Gusts from 40 to 45 MPH are possible in western Fresno and Kings Counties.  In Kern County, winds out of the south to southeast, if models are correct, will be sustained at 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH possible.  Near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, winds at places such as the bottom of the Grapevine could possibly exceed 60 MPH.

 

Winds will die off by late morning with winds generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.  Winds Friday will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Saturday.

 

Rain: Signiifcant rain has already occurred in Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno Counties with most locations on the valley floor already picking up more than a half inch by noon.  Fresno was up to .65.  In the foothills and mountains of Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa Counties, many locations are approaching 1.50 inches of rain due to a pipeline of subtropical moisture which has been training over the same area for the past 15 hours.  This band will move southward tonight as the main low pushes inland.  Another round of heavy rain will begin after midnight, continuing into Thursday morning.  With rain already tallying up, Fresno and Madera Counties could easily see 1.50 from this storm with possibly between .50 and 1.00 in Kings and central and southern Tulare Counties.  A quarter to one half inch could fall over the valley portion of Kern County, assuming a rain shadow doesn’t form and lap it all up.

 

The rain will turn to showers mid to late morning Thursday.  There is also a chance of thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon and evening.  From late Thursday night through Friday night, it looks like we’ll see some dry weather.  This won’t last long, however, as the next low slides southward from the Gulf of Alaska, spreading showers over the area Saturday and Saturday night with some possible lingering showers into Sunday morning.  Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning appear to be dry.  Models continue to indicate a new storm will  move into our region Wednesday through Thursday for more rain which could again be fairly significant.

 

The two week model is interesting as it shows the greatest potential for rain in the U.S. will be over northern and central California.

 

Frost Information: The air mass behind the Saturday/Saturday night storm is cold and will shoot southward from the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into California Monday and Tuesday.  It will be quite difficult for a major frost or freeze event to get going as I do anticipate there will be plenty of residual cloud cover and possibly fog and low clouds Monday morning.  It’s also possible that by Tuesday morning, clouds will be increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm, also precluding any frost.  This storm will be mild and will be followed by a west/northwest flow which would maintain marginally above average temperatures.

 

Next Report: Thursday morning/November 29