November 29, 2018
Summary: This has been one heck of a storm event which is by no means winding down as of yet. Numerous showers are occurring throughout the valley. In addition, heavy thunderstorms are pounding parts of Kings County and on a line from Visalia to Delano. These storms are moving east at about 30 MPH and will affect the Lindsay/Porterville area shortly. Strong winds are pounding the west side of the valley where wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH are common. Twisselman, which is just in the Coast Range east of Bakersfield, is reporting wind gusts of 58 MPH.
The center of circulation will move through northern and central California this evening with showers and thunderstorms continuing well into the night. The low will finally slide to the east of the Sierra Nevada late tonight and early Friday, allowing matters to finally settle down.
However, a strong west/northwest flow in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be lifted by the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains where light showers will continue through Friday. A short slight of dry weather will occur Friday night, but a new low is sliding southward along the British Columbia coast and will move southeastward with the center of circulation near northwest Nevada Saturday afternoon. This storm is colder with much lighter amounts of precipitation anticipated. Snow levels will drop to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet.
Upslope clouds will hang tough through Monday morning as a strong, northwesterly flow moves in behind the system. Partial clearing is expected Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday. Where it clears Monday morning, frost will certainly be possible. But, with a soaking wet valley floor and possible low clouds and fog, most locations will probably end up in the low to mid 30s. Mid and high levels clouds will begin to increase Tuesday as a lower latitude storm approaches the central coast. This one may be a teaser. Some models show the low sliding southward to off the California coast Wednesday and Thursday. If the track of the storm is too far off shore, the chance of rain will be greatly reduced.
By Friday, the storm will be moving through southern California with a high risk of significant rain south of the Kern County mountains. Right now, the following weekend and into the following week look to be under an umbrella of high pressure for dry weather and, more than likely, increasing amounts of valley fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, slowly tapering off after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy Friday with a small chance of light showers, mainly over the foothills. Partly cloudy Friday night. Mostly cloudy Saturday with periods of light showers, continuing Saturday night. Clearing will be slow Sunday with a few lingering showers Sunday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning with areas of fog and low clouds possible. Mostly clear with areas of fog and low clouds Monday night into Tuesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers. A slight chance of showers Tuesday night leading to a greater risk of rain Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/59/39/53 | Reedley 46/59/40/53 | Dinuba 44/57/38/52 | |
| Porterville 46/58/40/53 | Lindsay 45/59/39/54 | Delano 47/59/42/53 | |
| Bakersfield 48/58/43/54 | Taft 48/58/46/56 | Arvin 49/58/44/52 | |
| Lamont 47/59/42/53 | Pixley 47/59/40/54 | Tulare 45/57/39/53 | |
| Woodlake 46/58/40/53 | Hanford 48/58/40/52 | Orosi 45/58/39/53 | |
Winds: Winds have cranked up along the west side this afternoon with gusts between 30 and 40 MPH common. Twisselman, just over the first Coast Range near the Kern County line, was reporting gusts to 58 MPH. as the low finally moves inland later tonight, these winds will begin to wane as pressure differences between to slacken. Winds Friday and Saturday will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH Saturday night and Sunday with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: The following are 24 hour rainfall totals as of 11:00am today. Keep in mind, all of these stations have recorded considerably more in the previous 24 hours with storm totals between one and two inches in portions of Tulare, Fresno, and Madera Counties. So, over the past 24 hours, Madera .70, Fresno .48, Hanford .63, Lemoore .29, Bakersfield .27, Lemon cove .66, Lindsay .69, Coalinga .86, Kettleman Hills .86, and Wasco .43.
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are currently pounding the valley. As of the time of this writing, a line of thunderstorms stretched from the Exeter/Visalia area down to near Delano. These storms will affect places like Ducor north to Lindsay shortly before moving into the foothills. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening then will begin to taper off after midnight. Rainfall amounts from now through late tonight will be somewhere between .10 and .25. Much higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms strike. A west/northwest flow will follow this storm for strong upsloping along the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains where light showers are likely to be Friday with the valley being dry through Friday night. Light showers will spread over the area Saturday and Saturday night. This storm is considerably colder and carries much less water, so amounts of between .10 and .25 seems plausible. Our next chance of rain will be later Tuesday night through Thursday. This will be a tricky forecast as some models track this system southward further off shore, reducing the chance of precipitation. If this turns out to be a coastal hugger, significant precipitation would certainly be possible. For now, it appears rain will move through southern California Friday with dry weather next weekend and into the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday morning. There is a chance of local frost Sunday morning where skies clear. Many locations, especially on the eastern and southern flanks of the valley will still be dealing with upslope clouds through Monday morning, staving off the chance of frost. Low to mid 30s are likely Monday morning with the chance of the coldest locations in the upper 20s. Tuesday morning will in part be determined by an approaching low pressure system off shore. If the clouds from the system arrive too late, upper 20s to mid 30s would also be possible Tuesday morning. Increasing cloud cover and a chance of rain will keep conditions above freezing Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The mid week system will be followed by a west/northwest flow which is fairly mild. This will keep temperatures above freezing.
Next report: Friday morning/November 30