November 30, 2018
Summary: Doppler radar at this hour indicates some lingering light showers are falling over Tulare County and eastern Kern County this morning. By and large, though, this massive storm system has moved off to the east. A strong west/northwest flow aloft is packing in behind the storm and will keep upslope clouds in place against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada. Some clearing will occur, especially along the west side, as the day progresses, but in the eastern and southern flanks of the valley, sunshine will be at a premium.
The next storm, which is considerably weaker and colder, will slide southward into western Nevada Saturday. Light showers will spread over the area late Saturday through Saturday night with precipitation amounts generally less than .25. the snow level, however, will lower as a chilly air mass swings in behind the low from the north/northwest. Upslope clouds will continue in the eastern and southern flanks of the valley through at least Sunday morning. By Sunday, the only shower activity will probably be over the Kern County mountains, mainly along the valley facing slopes. Some clearing will occur by Monday morning as a weak ridge builds in from the west, however with a soaking wet valley floor, areas of fog and low clouds will no doubt form, especially Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Still a tricky forecast for a low pressure system off the central California coast by midweek. Model trends both yesterday and today track this system too far off shore for a significant rain event. If the low positions itself closer to the coastline, rain will become likely. One thing models do agree on is that this system will move through southern California and northern Baja Friday for a return to dry weather. Next weekend also looks dry with plenty of low clouds and fog. Most of the medium range models still favor above average precipitation week after next, although models vary widely on various solutions.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy skies today after a few lingering showers this morning in the south valley. Mostly to partly cloudy tonight. Light showers spreading over the area Saturday and Saturday night. A few lingering showers possible Sunday morning, mainly near the foothills. Otherwise it will be partly to mostly cloudy through Monday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Monday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing by Tuesday morning. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday with a slight chance of showers Tuesday night and a chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/37/52/33/52 | Reedley 55/38/53/34/52 | Dinuba 54/36/52/32/52 | |
| Porterville 55/39/51/34/51 | Lindsay 54/37/53/34/52 | Delano 56/39/52/35/53 | |
| Bakersfield 54/41/55/40/51 | Taft 56/44/55/40/51 | Arvin 53/40/55/40/53 | |
| Lamont 54/40/55/40/52 | Pixley 55/39/52/34/53 | Tulare 54/38/51/33/52 | |
| Woodlake 55/39/52/32/52 | Hanford 56/40/52/34/53 | Orosi 55/37/52/32/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55 |
Tuesday
AM fog/mostly cloudy 34/58 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/58 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 46/59 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 7 through December 13: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH through tonight then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Saturday. Winds will be out of the northwest 10 to 15 MPH Saturday night and for a time Sunday. Winds Sunday night through Monday will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The major winter storm of the past 48 hours is now history, other than a few lingering light showers in Tulare and Kern Counties this morning. Expect dry conditions this afternoon through tonight. Light showers will spread over the valley Saturday, especially from late morning through late evening. Rainfall amounts from this storm will be much less, generally at or less than .25 from Fresno County north and .10 or two in the south valley. Dry weather will return Sunday morning and continue through Monday night. The low pressure system that will be approaching the central coast at midweek will head south before moving inland. Some models this morning continue to indicate the track of this system will be a bit too far off shore to move anything significant into the region, although light showers are possible Wednesday through Thursday. If models are a bit off, and the low tracks closer to the coast, a more significant rain event would occur Wednesday through Thursday. Models do agree the system will move eastward through southern California and northern Baja Friday with dry weather next weekend and possibly into the first few days of the following week. The two week model continues to be adamant that northern and central California will be in the bulls eye for more storminess between the 7 and the 13.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. It’s possible that in low lying areas on Sunday morning, low 30s could occur. For now, it appears there will be abundant amounts of upsloping going on along the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains, meaning cloud cover may preclude a frost situation Monday morning. However, where it clears , colder low lying spots could drop into the upper 20s with most locations in the low to mid 30s. That same rule of thumb will apply for Tuesday morning, as well, although higher clouds may be increasing from the west. From Wednesday through Thursday, we should see significant cloud cover to maintain above freezing conditions. A west to northwest flow is evident for Friday morning, maintaining above freezing conditions with night and morning fog.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 85%/100%, Bakersfield: 85%/100%
Actual Humidity November 29, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/70%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .25, Blackwell .36, Lindcove .27, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .28, Porterville .25, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 58, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 61, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 77/29. Average Temperatures: 59/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 312 -167
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.1 +2.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.75 season. or +.09, Month to Date: 1.65 +.62
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .67, or -.25. Month to Date: .67 +.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 146, Parlier, 191 , Arvin, 134 Shafter, 189 Stratford, 166, Delano 171, Lindcove, 156, Porterville, 242
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 54 / 0.52 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 55 / 0.32 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 54 / 0.64 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 53 / 0.37 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 54 / 0.28 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 58 / 54 / 0.47 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 61 / 54 / 1.33 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / M / 54 / 0.35 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 62 / 52 / 0.19 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 53 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.12 2.64 111 0.91 38 2.38 14.06
MODESTO 0.11 0.97 50 0.98 51 1.93 13.11
MERCED 0.57 1.30 68 1.03 54 1.92 12.50
MADERA 0.81 1.43 73 0.32 16 1.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.80 1.40 86 0.37 23 1.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.39 0.73 50 0.37 25 1.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 0.39 44 0.03 3 0.89 6.47
BISHOP 0.14 0.55 71 0.16 21 0.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.52 2.37 127 0.75 40 1.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.35 0.77 49 0.25 16 1.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.12 0.69 38 0.09 5 1.83 13.95
Next report: Friday, November 30/pm