December 1, 2018
Summary: Light showers have rapidly spread as far south as a Salinas/Merced line at this hour and have spread down the Sierra Nevada into Fresno County. Light showers will continue to move down the valley today, though I must admit Doppler radar returns are rather anemic. We’ve been advertising this as a light precipitation event and it is showing every sign so far that that will be the case.
Freezing levels ahead of this system are actually fairly low. The freezing level over Oakland overnight was 5,800 feet with the freezing level dropping to 3,500 feet up at Medford, Oregon. A colder air mass will invade the region later today and tonight with local frost possible but not likely Sunday morning due to a chance of showers before midnight and upslope clouds developing along the eastern and southern sectors of the valley, not to mention a northwesterly wind.
Weak upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the west Sunday and Monday for a clearing trend, although at least areas of fog and low clouds will develop Monday and possible Tuesday morning. Monday will be the best chance for subfreezing temperatures, but nothing critical is expected.
Most of the models going out to Wednesday and Thursday of next week show a low pressure system approaching the central coast then sliding southeastward parallel to the coast but staying off shore. Models this morning are a bit more favorable for bands of rain moving in Wednesday into Thursday as they place the low a bit closer to the coast. The low will move in well south through northern Baja Friday with dry weather continuing Saturday through Monday. This will very likely lead to fog and low clouds possibly lasting through the day.
Our next chance of rain shows up on longer range models about a week from Tuesday. By and large, later that week and beyond will see a low pressure system off the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a strong zonal flow across the eastern Pacific and into California. This would allow whatever is out there to move into California from time to time.
Forecast: Light showers spreading southward today, continuing tonight but ending by midnight. Mostly to partly cloudy late tonight and Sunday morning, becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with areas of fog and low clouds developing. More fog and low clouds will form Monday night and early Tuesday with increasing mid and high level clouds during the day Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday with a small chance of showers Tuesday night. Periods of rain possible Wednesday through Thursday. A chance of showers for a time Thursday night. Becoming partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday
Short Term:
| Madera 51/34/52/32/53 | Reedley 52/35/52/31/53 | Dinuba 52/35/51/31/53 | |
| Porterville 54/36/52/32/54 | Lindsay 54/35/53/30/53 | Delano 55/38/53/34/55 | |
| Bakersfield 57/41/52/36/56 | Taft 56/42/52/40/55 | Arvin 57/39/52/35/53 | |
| Lamont 55/39/52/35/55 | Pixley 54/34/52/32/53 | Tulare 51/34/53/31/53 | |
| Woodlake 53/33/52/31/53 | Hanford 53/35/52/32/52 | Orosi 51/35/52/30/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/55 |
Tuesday
AM fog/mostly cloudy 34/58 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 45/58 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 46/59 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 41/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 8 through December 14: This model shows a possible wide area of low pressure over the interior west with possibly a northwest flow into California. This would bring marginally below average temperatures. Precipitation during this time frame appears to be marginally likely.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds today through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Sunday through Monday night will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Light showers have spread as far south as Merced County at this hour and will move quickly southeastward, especially along the east side of the valley. So far, radar returns are rather anemic, even over the mountain areas, but a the main low passes to our northeast this afternoon and evening, the risk for light showers will increase. Activity in most areas should end by about midnight.
Rainfall amounts from this system will be light and generally a tenth or two in Fresno and Madera Counties sloping to just a few hundredths over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Sunday and last through at least Tuesday morning. A considerably juicier, milder low will approach from the west Tuesday then will take a right turn, moving southeastward along the California coast. Models this morning are a bit more encouraging in showing the center of circulation moving close enough for it to rotate bands of rain inland Wednesday through at least part of the day Thursday. By Friday, the low will have weekend and will be heading through northern Baja, returning dry weather Friday through Monday. Models are indicating more chances of rain exists beginning a week from Tuesday.
Frost Discussion: The freezing level over Oakland last night was down to 5,800 feet and down to 3,500 feet at Medford. This is the beginning of a colder air mass which will arrive later today and tonight, resulting in possible below freezing temperatures late tonight through Sunday morning. Models show a rather robust northwest flow above the valley floor tonight and Sunday which should cause lower level clouds to bank up against the west facing slopes of the Sierra and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains, providing necessary cloud cover for above freezing conditions. It’s possible isolated river bottom type locations could drop into the upper 20s tonight, but most locations will be in the 30s.
Monday morning has the potential for more locations to dip below freezing. We have the advantage now of a wet ground plus we may see residual cloud cover well into Monday morning in some areas. It’s possible unprotected locations could dip to 27 to 29 briefly before sunrise with most locations ranging between 30 and 35. That same rule of thumb will apply for Tuesday morning, however we may begin to see mid and high level clouds increase over the valley by that time. That would either slow or halt the radiational cooling process.
Periods of rain are due in later in the week for above freezing conditions. The flow after that will be out of the west or west/northwest which is a mild flow, especially this time of year, maintaining above freezing conditions. There’s currently nothing on long range models suggesting any serious problems on the weather horizon.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 65%/95%
Actual Humidity November 30, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/66%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .34, Parlier .27, Blackwell .40, Lindcove .25, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .23, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 58, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 62, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 76/29. Average Temperatures: 59/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 312 -167
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 55.1 +3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.77 season. or +.07, Month to Date: 1.67 +.60
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .68, or -.26. Month to Date: .68 +.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 148, Parlier, 191 , Arvin, 134 Shafter, 189 Stratford, 166, Delano 171, Lindcove, 157, Porterville, 257
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:50
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
33 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
33 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
33 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
33 |
AF=Above Freezing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 53 / 0.17 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 52 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 52 / 0.08 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 51 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 52 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 51 / 0.19 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 60 / 51 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 51 / 0.07 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 57 / 52 / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 60 / 52 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.53 141 0.91 36 2.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 2.42 119 0.98 48 2.04 13.11
MERCED M 1.56 78 1.03 52 1.99 12.50
MADERA 0.01 2.12 104 0.32 16 2.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.02 1.77 104 0.37 22 1.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.02 1.45 97 0.37 25 1.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.68 72 0.03 3 0.94 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 160 0.16 20 0.82 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.56 180 0.75 38 1.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.37 144 0.25 15 1.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.12 1.81 94 0.09 5 1.93 13.95
Next report: December 1/pm