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Forecast

December 3, 2018/pm report

December 3, 2018

Summary: Clouds from a low pressure system several hundred miles to our west/northwest are already crossing over the central coast and will be moving over the valley from west to east tonight.  These clouds will lower and thicken as the night progresses.  Doppler radar is already showing virga, which is rain not reaching the ground, west of San Francisco.  All along, forecast models had indicated that this storm would approach the central coast then turn southeastward parallel to the coast late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  For now, I see no reason to deviate from that solution.

 

If there’s any change in model output this afternoon compared to prior modeling information it would be rainfall amounts will probably somewhat lighter than first anticipated.  All along, we’ve been discussing this as a low precipitation event and now it appears some of the wetter locations on the valley floor may approach .25.  The fact that this system will never really cross southern California means orographics will not come into play over the mountain areas so amounts will be fairly insignificant along the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains.

 

There will be a slight chance of light showers Tuesday morning with a slow increase in the chance for measurable rain during the afternoon.  Later Tuesday night through Thursday morning, I anticipate periods of light showers then the low will open up into a low pressure wave, moving across southern California and into the Desert Southwest later Thursday into Friday.

 

High pressure at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will build in from the west later Friday through Sunday night which should create enough of a warm air inversion to allow extensive fog and low clouds to develop, especially Saturday and Sunday.

 

Models are still pointing towards the next Pacific storm spreading precipitation into California Monday night and Tuesday, although a few models show the chance of rain starting a bit earlier.  This afternoon’s models do not show this storm to be quite as strong as previously depicted, but this far out it’s the normal flip flop situation, so we’ll make adjustments as necessary.  Models seem to be backing off on the chance of another rain event later next week.  Even the two week outlook this afternoon is not pointing to either dry or wet spells in terms of averages.

 

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight.  Mostly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday with a slight chance of showers Tuesday morning.  The chance will increase a bit during the afternoon.  Periods of light showers Tuesday night into Thursday morning.  Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night with extensive fog and low clouds, especially Saturday and Sunday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Monday with a chance of rain in the afternoon.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 36/56/43/57 Reedley 36/57/42/55 Dinuba 35/55/43/56
Porterville 36/59/44/58 Lindsay 34/57/42/58 Delano 40/58/44/58
Bakersfield 44/62/47/59 Taft 43/63/46/58 Arvin 44/64/46/59
Lamont 40/61/45/58 Pixley 37/56/44/57 Tulare 36/56/43/57
Woodlake 36/55/43/56 Hanford 37/57/44/57 Orosi 34/57/43/58

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast tonight at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 5 to 15 MPH Tuesday with local gusts to 20 MPH, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side.  Winds in Kern County Tuesday will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH Tuesday night and early Wednesday with stronger gusts.  Winds Wednesday afternoon will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH with winds of generally less than 10 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

Rain:  There will be a small chance of a few light showers as early as Tuesday morning with the chance increasing to around 50/50 during the afternoon.  Expect periods of light showers later Tuesday night through Thursday morning with dry weather returning Thursday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts will not be that significant.  It appears now that most locations will pick up a tenth or two with some locations picking up locally more.  Expect dry weather to return Thursday afternoon, continuing through Monday night.  The next opportunity for precipitation should manifest itself by Monday night.  Models are not showing this system to be quite as robust as previous modeling runs had indicated.  Even so, Monday night through Wednesday will see active weather with at least a chance at significant precipitation.  Most models are now showing the tap of storm events ending by about Wednesday of next week and lasting through the following weekend.  Even the two week outlook is showing the chance of rain to be only about 50/50, moving us out of the likely category for a change.

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but only slightly above in the coldest locations.  Above freezing conditions will also prevail for the remainder of the week, although Saturday and Sunday mornings could see coldest locations down to 32 to 36 or so.

Next week, or at least the first half of next week, will be governed by clouds and a reasonably good chance of rain, keeping conditions relatively safe.

There’s still nothing on paper medium term suggesting polar air masses anywhere next California through next week.

                  

Next report: Tuesday morning/December 4