December 4, 2018
Summary: Winds are cranked up over the valley portion of Kern County this afternoon. They’re gusting to 45 MPH at Lamont, 34 MPH at Buttonwillow. At Meadows Field, winds are sustained at 30, gusting to 36. Winds are gusting to 37 at Mettler, 50 at the bottom of the Grapevine, and at the top of the Grapevine, winds are sustained at 46, gusting to 69. So, I’m sure it’s quite a rough ride over the hill this afternoon.
Distinct differences in pressure remain between the high deserts of California and the southern San Joaquin Valley. This will continue to cause winds to be cranked up in Kern County through the evening, slowly diminishing as the night wears on as the off shore low moves southeastward into a less favorable position for strong winds.
Doppler radar shows light showers spreading over the coastal range and into the valley north of Kern County. With the strong winds over Kern County, a good rain shadow is evident, but that will end later tonight. By Thursday morning, the center of circulation will be just southwest of Los Angeles and by Friday the low will open up into a wave, moving through southern California and from there into the Desert Southwest. Most of the precipitation should be over by midday Thursday with the possible exception of Kern County which will still be on the northern flank of the storm.
Upper level high pressure will build in from the west Friday through Sunday night, creating a warm air inversion for above average temperatures over the foothills and mountains. Temperatures over the valley floor this weekend will depend on how widespread the fog and low clouds become.
By Monday evening, a weakening weather system will be spreading light rain over northern California. It seems each set of models that comes across my desk continues to show the chance of rain from this system lessening. If precipitation occurs at all, Monday night and Tuesday will be the best opportunity.
Beginning Wednesday of next week, upper level high pressure will take over, driving the storm track northward into the Pacific Northwest. This will be our next opportunity for fog and low clouds in the valley with delightful weather just about everywhere else. Even the two week model shows a blocking ridge of high pressure, so the chance of rain appears low.
Forecast: Periods of light showers tonight through Thursday morning. Expect strong gusty winds to continue in Kern County through the late evening hours then begin to decrease. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon with the possible exception of Kern County which will still have a chance at light showers. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday night with widespread fog and low clouds Saturday and Sunday mornings. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a small chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/57/43/58 | Reedley 47/58/44/58 | Dinuba 44/57/43/57 | |
| Porterville 44/60/43/59 | Lindsay 43/59/43/58 | Delano 47/60/45/59 | |
| Bakersfield 50/62/47/59 | Taft 51/63/47/59 | Arvin 51/64/45/60 | |
| Lamont 49/62/45/58 | Pixley 46/59/43/58 | Tulare 43/56/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 45/58/42/58 | Hanford 46/57/44/59 | Orosi 44/57/42/58 | |
Winds: North of Kern County, winds will generally be out of the east to southeast at no more than 10 MPH tonight. In Kern County, gusty east to southeast winds will continue through the late evening hours at 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH possible and possible exceeding 50 MPH near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. These winds will taper off later tonight with variable winds Wednesday and Wednesday night at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Thursday through Friday will be light to near calm.
Rain: Doppler radar continues to show just light showers north of Kern County. More significant bands of showers are just off shore and will move in land tonight and at times through about midday Thursday. Since the west side of the valley is closer to the center of circulation, it’s possible rainfall amounts could be somewhat higher there. It still appears, however, the main dynamics of this store will unfortunately remain just off shore with most locations recording .25 or less from now through midday Thursday. Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon with the possible exception of Kern County which may still be on the northern flank of this system. Dry weather will prevail Thursday night and last through at least Sunday night. Models indicate there’s less of a chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday. The trend the past few days on projections just looks drier and drier, so we’ll fall back and call for just a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. From Wednesday through the following weekend, it’s likely dry weather will prevail under a blocking ridge of high pressure.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight. Above freezing conditions will continue through the weekend. Next week also appears pretty mild with generally a mild westerly flow in the atmosphere. Nothing on longer range outlooks suggesting a chance of below freezing temperatures at this time.
Next report: Wednesday morning, December 5