December 5, 2018
Summary: The center of circulation of low pressure is now about 300 miles west of Santa Maria and will be just west of Los Angeles tomorrow morning. The counterclockwise flow around the low is pushing bands of showers from south to north across the valley. The main dynamics, however, will remain off shore so the forecast of a light precipitation event appears to be holding. Winds have died off in Kern County, for the most part, although winds near the base of the Grapevine are still at 22 MPH, gusting to 35 while at Grapevine Peak, winds of 33, gusting to 46 MPH are being reported. The low will move across southern California Friday morning then into the Desert Southwest by evening. The chance for light showers will continue tonight and for the first part of the day Thursday, though showers are possible during the afternoon, mainly in Kern County.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Friday and will dominate our weather through at least Sunday night. With at least somewhat of a warm air inversion developing over the weekend, fog and low clouds may become quite extensive during the night and morning hours. The high will begin to give way Monday night and Tuesday, although models don’t show much of an event as the southern portion of the trough moves through. For now, we’ll emphasize the word chance for showers and pretty much leave it at that.
Models for later next week are also flip flopping as some are again indicating more of a dry pattern with the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California being the recipients of generous rains.
Forecast: Periods of light showers through Thursday morning with a chance of light showers Thursday afternoon, mainly in Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon with mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy skies Friday night through Sunday night but with areas of night and morning fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Monday with a small chance of light showers Monday night and Tuesday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/55/37/57 | Reedley 49/56/38/57 | Dinuba 46/55/36/57 | |
| Porterville 49/57/38/57 | Lindsay 47/56/36/58 | Delano 49/57/40/58 | |
| Bakersfield 50/57/43/59 | Taft 50/57/47/59 | Arvin 50/58/41/59 | |
| Lamont 51/58/41/57 | Pixley 48/56/38/57 | Tulare 46/56/37/57 | |
| Woodlake 46/57/36/58 | Hanford 48/57/38/57 | Orosi 46/56/37/57 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range through Thursday morning with locally stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Thursday afternoon through Saturday will be at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Light showers continue to rotate south to north across the valley this afternoon. This will continue tonight through Thursday morning, ending north of Kern County by afternoon with a chance of light showers mainly south of the Kern/Tulare County line Thursday afternoon. Expect dry weather Thursday night through at least Sunday night. The trough which will move across our region late Monday through Tuesday morning doesn’t appear significant at all on this afternoon’s models. For now, I’ll emphasize the word chance to describe the chance of showers north of Kern County. Some models are also flipping back to a drier scenario for later next week. They’re now showing the rain line moving to our north. Northern California and the Pacific Northwest could potentially do very well with this system.
Frost Discussion: River bottom and like locations could drop to near 32 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings, but no widespread frost is expected. A relatively mild air mass will follow the current system with most locations dropping into the 34 to 39 degree range. Clouds will increase early next week with a chance of light showers Monday night and Tuesday, keeping conditions above freezing. Models still indicate generally a westerly flow will follow the Monday/Tuesday system, cutting off any potentially cold air masses for safe conditions through next weekend, barring something unforeseen.
Next report: Thursday morning, December 6