December 6, 2018
Summary: The last vestiges of rain are currently mainly focused over Tulare County but this area of light rain is shrinking with time and all of the precipitation will end by this evening. Surprisingly heavy amounts of precipitation have occurred over Kern County. Lamont has recorded .44, Mettler .25, and some unconfirmed reports of over half an inch elsewhere. Precipitation amounts further north were much lighter.
The center of circulation with this storm will be moving into Orange and San Diego Counties over the next few hours. The result in southern California has been heavy amounts of precipitation with heavy rain and thunderstorms still occurring in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. Some of the mountain areas in LA County have picked up between 2 and 5 inches of rain with 2 plus inches common along the coastal plain and in the intermediate valleys.
Upper level high pressure will begin to build eastward over California Friday from the eastern Pacific. The high will dominate our weather through at least the first part of the day Monday. The main weather challenge over the weekend will be increasing amounts of night and morning clouds and fog.
We’re still looking at a weak trough passing through central California Monday night and Tuesday morning. My gut feeling at this time is that we will remain dry, but just in case, I want to keep a minimal chance of light rain in the forecast, mainly from Fresno County northward. After Tuesday, a high center will develop off the coast of southern California. The high will expand far enough to the north to nudge the main storm track back into the Pacific Northwest and at times possibly northern California. If this pattern is correct, fog and low clouds will again be the main forecast challenge from midweek through next weekend. Temperatures, of course, during times of fog and low clouds will be governed by the amount of afternoon clearing.
The two week model this afternoon is a little more encouraging as it does indicate there’s a better than even chance of at least one and possibly more rain events between the 14 and the 20.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear from Fresno County northward tonight with areas of fog and low clouds developing after midnight. Just a slight chance of a few showers in Kern County through the evening hours. Remaining mostly cloudy south of Fresno County into Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday night. Mostly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with only a small chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward mainly Monday night through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Thursday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/58/35/58 | Reedley 41/59/36/58 | Dinuba 39/57/34/57 | |
| Porterville 43/58/36/58 | Lindsay 41/59/34/59 | Delano 42/60/37/59 | |
| Bakersfield 44/60/42/61 | Taft 45/61/42/61 | Arvin 42/58/38/60 | |
| Lamont 43/60/40/60 | Pixley 43/59/37/58 | Tulare 41/57/35/57 | |
| Woodlake 40/58/35/58 | Hanford 42/59/36/58 | Orosi 40/57/34/57 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally variable at 5 to 10 MPH this evening with locally stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers. Later tonight through Sunday, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extensive periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The last vestiges of precipitation are in the form of light showers over Tulare County at this hour. This area is shrinking with time so by the early evening hours, this event will be over. Surprisingly heavy rain has occurred over the valley portion of Kern County today. Lamont has recorded .44 with other locations possibly exceeding one half inch and with much lighter amounts elsewhere. Expect dry weather tonight through Sunday night then a weak trough of low pressure will move through Monday night and Tuesday. This is a rather anemic looking system along its southern flanks, the portion that will be moving through here. Therefore, there’s only a minimal chance of light showers and that would be mainly from Fresno County north. After Tuesday, dry weather will prevail through next weekend as the storm track migrates back into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California.
One hope for rain down the road is the two week model is indicating a better than even chance of some rain between the 14th and the 20th.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. It’s possible coldest low lying locations could drop down to 32 to 34 or so Saturday through Monday. For now, it appears most locations will remain in the mid to upper 30s. There will be increasing cloud cover Monday night and Tuesday, maintaining above freezing conditions. Clearing will occur by midweek with a good chance of dry weather through next weekend. It’s possible low to mid 30s could occur Wednesday through Friday of next week, but no real winter type air mass is expected with most locations remaining above freezing. It’s also possible fog and low clouds could become widespread, moderating the situation even more. Models through the 20th of this month are showing very little chance of a pattern that would result in frost or freeze conditions. The main flow across the Pacific and into California will be out of the west or northwest.
Next report: Friday morning/December 7