December 6, 2018
Summary: Currently, light showers are falling mainly over Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Doppler radar is quite impressive with heavy amounts of precipitation over Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, counties closest to the current center of circulation. The low will continue to move southeastward, moving through southern California and northern Baja tonight and Friday morning. The best chance of precipitation today will be in the south valley with showers possibly lasting through the afternoon. Dry weather will return tonight.
Upper level high pressure will begin to fill in behind the current storm and will dominate our weather Friday into Monday. With more recent rains and a warm air inversion which will develop over the weekend, fog and low clouds will be the main challenge in our weather.
The chance of rain Monday night and Tuesday is much reduced as models are showing a weak trough of low pressure moving through Monday night and Tuesday morning. There will be just a minimal chance of light rain with this system, mainly from Fresno County north, but by and large, any precipitation that does occur will be quite light, even over the mountain areas.
From midweek through next weekend, the main storm track will ride over the top of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, moving moist storms into the Pacific Northwest and about the northern one-fourth of California. The two week model this morning indicates there will be active weather in the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California during the thirteenth through the nineteeth with northern California right on the dividing line between all that wet weather to our north and dry weather to our south.
Forecast: Showers likely this morning, mainly south of Fresno County. A chance of showers this afternoon, mainly in Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday morning with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds. A slight chance of light showers primarily from Fresno County northward Monday night and Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/40/59/34/57 | Reedley 58/42/59/35/57 | Dinuba 56/40/59/34/56 | |
| Porterville 58/42/60/35/60 | Lindsay 57/41/59/35/59 | Delano 58/42/60/38/60 | |
| Bakersfield 58/45/61/43/61 | Taft 60/46/61/42/61 | Arvin 57/45/60/40/60 | |
| Lamont 59/45/61/41/61 | Pixley 57/43/59/36/57 | Tulare 56/40/58/34/57 | |
| Woodlake 56/43/59/35/57 | Hanford 58/44/59/35/59 | Orosi 57/43/58/34/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 38/55 |
Monday
Chance of showers 43/57 |
Tuesday
AM showers 45/56 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 40/56 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 37/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 13 through December 19: This model indicates the main storm track will migrate north into the Pacific Northwest and northern California with central California on the dividing line between wet weather to the north and dry weather to our south. That would likely result in a low chance of rain. Temperatures will be determined by the amount of fog and low clouds.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will generally be variable at 5 to 10 MPH today. Winds tonight through Sunday will be generally less than 6 MPH with extended periods of dry conditions.
Rain: As expected, rainfall amounts from the current storm have been light, ranging from a few hundredths to as much as a tenth of an inch. Currently, from Fresno County north the precipitation has ended. There is a swath of light rain extending from the Tehachapi Mountains northward into mainly eastern sections of Tulare County. Most of the rain will end by the afternoon with the possible exception of Kern County which will be on the northern rim of the low. Heavy amounts of precipitation are occurring over the coastal and mountain areas of southern California, but that precipitation will remain to our south as the low continues to track southeastward into extreme southern California and northwest Mexico on Friday. Dry weather will continue through at least Monday morning, if not beyond. Models are still unimpressive regarding a trough of pressure which will be moving through Monday night or Tuesday. We’ll just keep a minimal chance of light rain in the forecast, mainly from Fresno County northward. In all likelihood the rest of the valley will remain dry. Beyond Tuesday. A zone of upper level high pressure will be anchored off the southern California coast with the main storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California. For now, though, it appears central California will remain dry through next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. Coldest locations Saturday and Sunday mornings will dip to between 33 and 35 or so but subfreezing temperatures are not expected. The next trough of low pressure to move through will do so Monday night and Tuesday. Cloud cover will maintain above freezing conditions. The flow behind this system will be out of the west to northwest, keeping cold air masses to our east and north.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 90%/100%, Bakersfield: 80%/95%
Actual Humidity December 4, 2018: Delano, 99%/43%, Porterville, 95%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20% tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .27, Parlier .27, Blackwell .40, Lindcove .24, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .24, Delano .30 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 57, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 70/28. Average Temperatures: 57/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 400 -191
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.4 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.91 season. or -.00, Month to Date: .14 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: .89, or -.18. Month to Date: .21 +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 195, Parlier, 233 , Arvin, 165 Shafter, 230 Stratford, 202, Delano 213, Lindcove, 221, Porterville, 329
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 4:42 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 51 / 0.08 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 51 / 0.02 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 49 / 0.15 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 55 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 58 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1558 / 56 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 46 / 0.02 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.09 3.83 136 0.91 32 2.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 3.02 131 0.98 42 2.31 13.11
MERCED 0.03 2.63 123 1.03 48 2.13 12.50
MADERA 0.08 2.33 106 0.32 15 2.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.02 1.84 96 0.37 19 1.91 11.50
HANFORD T 1.57 98 0.37 23 1.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.87 81 0.03 3 1.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 144 0.16 18 0.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.03 3.69 164 0.75 33 2.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.27 2.81 149 0.25 13 1.88 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 1.90 87 0.09 4 2.19 13.95
Next report: December 6/pm