December 10, 2018
Summary: Temperatures this morning are uniformly in the upper 40s all the way from Kern County through the lower Sacramento Valley. This, of course, is due to a low overcast which is generally based between 800 and 2,000 feet, depending upon weather station. A weak trough of low pressure will be moving through today and tonight. Satellite imagery shows there’s a considerable amount of higher clouds above the low cloud deck with a few radar returns. It’s possible a few sprinkles could occur today and tonight, but nothing measurable is expected.
The main challenge will be whether this trough has enough low wind energy to mix out the fog and low clouds. This system will be quickly followed by another one moving through to the interior west late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will also be dry, but could aid in scouring out the fog and low clouds. This could allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s Wednesday through Friday mornings. The fog and low clouds may very well reform as ground fog Wednesday night and eventually lift into a low overcast once again by next weekend. So, as you can see, there are many variables to deal with the next few days.
By the late part of the weekend and into early next week, models continue to indicate a strong low will be off the northern California coast leading to widespread rain over northern California. The chance of rain from Fresno County northward looks pretty good for Sunday and Monday with smaller chances down into Kern County. Models had indicated there would possibly be more storminess behind this low. Some are backing off on that solution.
Forecast: Overcast today and tonight with a slight chance of a few sprinkles. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday night with areas of night and morning fog. Widespread fog and/or low clouds Thursday through Saturday with partial afternoon clearing. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night leading to a chance of rain Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/45/55/42/55 | Reedley 53/46/54/41/55 | Dinuba 52/47/54/41/55 | |
| Porterville 55/46/55/40/55 | Lindsay 54/44/54/39/56 | Delano 54/46/54/42/57 | |
| Bakersfield 56/48/58/42/58 | Taft 59/49/57/43/58 | Arvin 56/45/56/40/59 | |
| Lamont 55/46/55/42/58 | Pixley 54/46/54/39/55 | Tulare 53/45/53/41/55 | |
| Woodlake 56/44/55/39/55 | Hanford 55/46/54/41/56 | Orosi 53/45/53/41/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 44/57 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 43/56 |
Saturday
PM showers possible 38/58 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 47/61 |
Monday
Chance of rain 48/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 17 through December 23: This model is back to giving central California a better than even chance of rain during this period. It does show at least one Pacific storm moving through with possibly more. The main flow will be out of the west to northwest, so temperatures should run a bit above average, unless the fog takes over.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Doppler radar is actually indicating a few returns with showers over the valley floor, however most of it is evaporating before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles could occur today and tonight, but for now nothing measurable is expected. The next chance of measurable rain will be Saturday night from Fresno County north as a significant low approaches the northern California coast. Central California will be on the wet/dry line Sunday through Monday with the lowest chance of rain being over Kern County and the highest probability from Fresno County north. Earlier models had indicated the chance of more storms following the Sunday/Monday system would be pretty high, but that’s not how it’s looking now. A high center is now projected to build off the southern California coast with the storm track sliding up into the Pacific Northwest and northern California later next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight. Low temperatures Wednesday through Friday will largely be determined by fog and low clouds. We may have enough wind energy today and Tuesday to mix out the lower level moisture, allowing skies to clear. If this occurs, low to mid 30s would certainly be possible Wednesday through Friday mornings. It is, however, still to be determined whether this system has enough low level wind energy to remove the low clouds. If this cloud deck remains, overnight low temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 40s. Still nothing longer term that looks threatening.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 75%/95%
Actual Humidity December 9, 2018: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/75%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0% tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .15, Parlier .18, Blackwell .27, Lindcove .18, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .19, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 54, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 458 -212
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.7 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.92 season. or -.19, Month to Date: .15 -.26
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or +.01. Month to Date: .52 +.27
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 204, Parlier, 235 , Arvin, 189 Shafter, 245 Stratford, 207, Delano 214, Lindcove, 281, Porterville, 424
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:01 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 55 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 52 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 57 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 56 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 3.87 126 0.91 30 3.08 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.05 120 0.98 39 2.54 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 119 1.03 45 2.27 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 103 0.32 14 2.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 91 0.37 18 2.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 99 0.37 22 1.72 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 101 0.03 3 1.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 132 0.16 16 0.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 3.87 156 0.75 30 2.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 136 0.25 12 2.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 80 0.09 4 2.44 13.95
Next report: Monday December 10/pm