December 17, 2018
Summary: This storm has turned out to be a generous precipitation maker over northern California. The Mt. Shasta/Siskiyou region has received 1-3 inches with 2-3 inches over the northern half of the Sierra Nevada. Radar indicates the back side of the cold front will clear the valley later this morning. By this afternoon, the front will be east of the Sierra Nevada. There will be plenty of upslope clouds against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains this afternoon, more than likely lasting through the night and into Tuesday morning. There may be some clearing from mainly Fresno County north and portions of the west side.
High pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere will begin to take shape tonight and Tuesday off the southern California coast and will expand northward, driving Pacific storms back up into the Pacific Northwest. This high will dominate our pattern through Thursday, allowing a warm air inversion to develop and leading to extensive fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing beginning Wednesday.
A weak trough will move through mainly northern California Thursday night and Friday morning. There may be enough low level wind energy to temporarily break up the inversion, although that is questionable. Behind the trough, a new high center will develop several hundred miles off shore with California ending up on the eastern flank of the high, creating a northwest flow aloft. This high will be rather flat with storm after storm affecting the Pacific Northwest. The main challenge for us will continue to be fog and/or low clouds on the valley floor.
Some models are showing a fairly weak system moving through Christmas Day, possibly spreading light showers over the area. This is the first time this has shown up on modeling, so I don’t hold too much store in it at this time. On the flip side, some of the models are suggesting dry weather after Christmas through the new year, which is a change from the last couple of days. It will be interesting to see what Mother Nature provides.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers for a time this morning. Mostly cloudy this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some clearing Tuesday afternoon. Widespread fog and/or low clouds Wednesday morning, possibly lifting into a low overcast during the afternoon and with partial afternoon clearing. Fog and/or low clouds Wednesday night through Christmas Eve.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/40/56/36/56 | Reedley 61/40/56/37/56 | Dinuba 59/40/55/36/57 | |
| Porterville 62/41/56/37/58 | Lindsay 61/41/56/36/58 | Delano 62/42/58/37/60 | |
| Bakersfield 62/47/58/40/58 | Taft 63/47/57/43/62 | Arvin 61/44/58/44/60 | |
| Lamont 62/44/56/42/58 | Pixley 62/40/57/38/57 | Tulare 60/42/55/36/55 | |
| Woodlake 61/43/55/40/56 | Hanford 62/40/57/37/56 | Orosi 61/43/57/38/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 45/55 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 45/54 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 43/53 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 44/54 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 43/56 |
Two Week Outlook: December 24 through December 30: This model indicates there’s a fairly high risk of rain over the northern half of California, so we have a chance of rain after Christmas. This model also shows a cooler weather pattern with near average temperatures, possibly marginally below.
December: It’s been quite some time since this model has actually projected above average precipitation, but the good news is that is the case. It appears the dominant pattern for the month will maintain winds generally out of the west or northwest, which would favor above average temperatures.
December, January, February: It’s been a long time since the 90 day outlook projected above average precipitation for December through February, in other words the winter months. It also continues the better than even chance that over the next three months, temperatures will largely be above average. However, like any winter there will be below average periods as well.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through this evening with locally stronger gusts. Later tonight through Thursday, winds will generally be less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The showers currently over the valley will end by later this morning with dry weather returning this afternoon. So far, Madera has picked up .31, Fresno .24, Kettleman Hills .21 with generally less than .20 in the south valley. Dry weather begins tonight and will continue, more than likely, through the remainder of the week and in to early next week. There are a couple of models that have changed their tune and now predict the possibility of showers Christmas Day. Interestingly enough, the models that had projected the chance of rain between Christmas Day and New Year’s are backing off that possibility and are now predicting dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. There is the possibility of a cooler pattern setting up after Christmas due to a northwest flow developing. It’s by no means a freeze pattern, and we’ll keep you posted on developments.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 80%/100%, Bakersfield: 65%/100%
Actual Humidity December 16, 2018: Delano, 96%/44%, Porterville, 97%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 50% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .23, Parlier .24, Blackwell .30, Lindcove .22, Arvin .32, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .25, Delano .25 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 52, Delano 50
Record Temperatures: 70/25. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 574 -244
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.1 +3.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 1.93 season. or -.54, Month to Date: .15 -.61
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or -.21. Month to Date: .52 +.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 270, Parlier, 293 , Arvin, 228 Shafter, 309 Stratford, 264, Delano 286, Lindcove, 397, Porterville, 548
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:06 am Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 3.87 109 0.91 26 3.55 14.06
MODESTO T 3.05 103 0.98 33 2.97 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.69 105 1.03 40 2.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.42 89 0.32 12 2.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.92 78 0.37 15 2.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 1.71 86 0.37 19 1.99 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 85 0.03 2 1.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 115 0.16 14 1.14 5.18
SALINAS T 3.87 134 0.75 26 2.88 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 2.84 113 0.25 10 2.52 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.95 68 0.09 3 2.88 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/December 17