December 23, 2018
Summary: Once again this morning, it is extremely mild for this time of year with lows in the lower 50s. a low overcast remains over the valley, based between 2,200 and 2,400 feet, depending upon location. Clearing this afternoon is unlikely in most areas, so readings will only warm into the mid 50s at most locations. If the sun does break through temperatures could rise to near 60. The low clouds will disperse either later tonight or Monday morning as a low center moves out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California, spreading precipitation down to a Bay Area/Sacramento line. The low and its associated cold front will move through the valley coinciding with Santa’s arrival with the bulk of the precipitation possibly falling between midnight and six AM Christmas morning.
Lingering showers, mainly over the mountains, will continue into Christmas night, possibly into Wednesday morning over the Kern County mountains. Once this system moves through, it will carve out a new low circulation over southern California and Arizona. A dry north/northeast flow will wrap around that low, moving colder and drier air into central California.
A weaker low will dive southeastward through the Pacific Northwest Thursday then will be just east of the Sierra Nevada. Precipitation is unlikely with this system with the possible exception of over the high Sierra.
Friday through Sunday will see the northerly flow continue. Frost will become more and more likely, especially after Thursday. From New Year’s Eve through January 3, we are still looking at a potential cold weather episode. A massive upper level high will cover the eastern Pacific, ridging into Alaska and northwest Canada while a low parks over southern California or possibly northern Baja. This is an ideal weather pattern to pump cold, modified Arctic air into the United States. California remains on the western side of this possible air mass, so my main concern will be New Year’s morning through about January 4. Still much too early to project possible low temperatures.
By the time we get to January 5, some models are hinting that a mild westerly flow will break through with even a chance of…dare I say it…precipitation.
Forecast: Low overcast today and tonight, dissipating either late tonight or Monday morning. Increasing higher clouds Monday with rain spreading southeastward over the valley Christmas Eve night, lasting into Christmas morning. There is a chance of lingering showers Tuesday afternoon, mainly over the mountains. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Variable cloudiness at times Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with areas of fog and low clouds possible. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Sunday and turning colder.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/45/60/43/55 | Reedley 57/42/58/43/56 | Dinuba 56/42/57/43/55 | |
| Porterville 56/45/58/43/56 | Lindsay 56/43/59/43/57 | Delano 57/44/60/45/56 | |
| Bakersfield 57/45/60/47/57 | Taft 59/46/61/46/57 | Arvin 58/43/61/46/57 | |
| Lamont 58/45/61/46/57 | Pixley 56/44/59/44/55 | Tulare 55/43/58/44/55 | |
| Woodlake 57/43/59/44/56 | Hanford 56/44/60/46/56 | Orosi 57/43/58/46/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 37/53 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 34/54 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/51 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/53 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 28/52 |
Two Week Outlook: December 29 through January 4: This model is indicating below average temperatures from California all the way into the Midwest, especially after the first of the year. With a blocking ridge of upper level pressure just off shore, the chance for precipitation appears low.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 7 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing Christmas Eve night. winds Christmas Day will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, decreasing to around 5 to 10 MPH Christmas night with generally light winds Wednesday.
Rain: we are still on track for a wet Christmas Eve. A relatively cold low and its associated cold front will move through the valley later Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning. Precipitation amounts may range from a quarter to a third of an inch in Fresno and Madera Counties, a quarter inch or so in Tulare County, a tenth or two in Kings County, and a tenth or a bit more over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return Tuesday night and continue for the remainder of the year, and quite possibly through about January fourth. Some models are showing moist westerly flow trying to move into northern and central California after the fourth. Since this is a complete change from previous projections, this is not a confident forecast at all.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Christmas morning and possibly Wednesday morning. Low to mid 30s are certainly possible Wednesday where and if it clears. The flow behind the Christmas Day storm will be out of the north/northeast, moving somewhat colder but more importantly drier air, into central California. It’s quite possible dew points which have been running in the lower 50s, could tank down into the 30s by Wednesday morning and possibly even lower Thursday and Friday. A weak disturbance will move southeastward just east of the Sierra Nevada on Thursday, hopefully spreading variable amounts of clouds over the area.
Lows Friday through Sunday could dip down into the 26 to 30 degree range if skies remain clear.
We are still looking at potential trouble from the 31st through the 4th. Models have changed very little this morning and still indicate a massive high will be over the eastern Pacific with a huge ridge extending into Alaska and northwest Canada while a low center is carved out over southern California, or perhaps northern Baja. This will definitely feed arctic air into the western states. If models this morning are correct, California would be on the far western edge of this air mass, possibly feeding arctic air down the Sacramento Valley then on down the western side of the San Joaquin Valley, ultimately filtering into the rest of the growing area. Under this pattern, widespread mid to upper 20s would be likely, and possibly colder, depending upon how much of this air mass eventually moves in. there is still plenty of time for modeling to be kinder to us and generate a northwest flow, which would be a huge difference. For now, I’m just keeping my fingers crossed, but considering the consistency on models, there is cause for concern.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 80%/100%, Bakersfield: 75%/100%
Actual Humidity December 22, 2018: Delano, 100%/72% Porterville, 98%/71%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .24, Parlier .23, Blackwell .31, Lindcove .20, Arvin .34, Orange Cove .25, Porterville .23, Delano .27 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 53, Delano 52
Record Temperatures: 68/18. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 657 -283
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for December so far: 49.6 +4.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.27 season. or -.58, Month to Date: .50 -.65
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.20, or -.42. Month to Date: .52 -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 288, Parlier, 316 , Arvin, 241 Shafter, 333 Stratford, 292, Delano 309, Lindcove, 460, Porterville, 642
. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 56 / 51 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 51 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 54 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 56 / 43 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 5.00 124 0.96 24 4.02 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.20 124 1.03 30 3.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 3.56 122 1.11 38 2.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.85 92 0.41 13 3.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.27 80 0.41 14 2.85 11.50
HANFORD 0.02 1.82 76 0.41 17 2.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.20 74 0.07 4 1.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.31 101 0.16 12 1.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 4.47 136 0.78 24 3.28 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 3.52 119 0.27 9 2.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 2.29 69 0.12 4 3.32 13.95
Next report: Sunday afternoon/December 23