Updates
  • Out/pneumonia Pardon the interruption again, folks. John had been coughing more and more frequently lately. Difficult breathing yesterday resulted in an ambulance ride to the local…
  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
  • May 6, 2024 report May 6, 2024 Summary  An elongated trough of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest while high pressure is setting…
  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

Christmas Eve/2018

 December 23, 2018

Summary: A low cloud deck remains in place this morning along the eastern flank of the valley and the adjacent foothills.  The base of the overcast is lifting, meaning pressures aloft are falling so look for the cloud deck to dissipate.  Rain is currently spreading over  northern California with precipitation as far south as Sacramento.  The main low, however, is off the northwest California coast and is barreling southeastward.  It will send a cold front through the valley later this evening accompanied by widespread, mainly light rain.  Precipitation will last into early Christmas morning with a chance of lingering showers during the afternoon, mainly in the south valley near the foothills.  A strong northwest push of air will move down the valley Christmas night, forming upslope clouds against the Sierra and the Kern County mountains.  The west side of the valley may very well clear with local frost possible Wednesday morning.

 

As the low centers over the Desert Southwest, a north/northeast flow will develop both at the surface and aloft.  Add to that a new low pressure system rapidly moving southeastward into the Great Basin Thursday tugging behind it a marginally colder air mass, and some frosty mornings will be coming up beginning Friday and lasting through New Year’s Eve.  There is a chance fog and low clouds could take over again, but with that north/northeast flow continuing, there is a higher chance of skies being generally clear.

 

Unfortunately, some models have flipped yet again, showing a potential cold weather episode beginning December 31 and lasting through the first few days of the new year.  That massive high is again being shown as dominant over the eastern Pacific with a large ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada.  While this develops, a possible dry low pressure system may set up shop over southern California or possibly Arizona or northwest Mexico.  Between that high and that low to our southeast, arctic air will plunge into the western U.S. Where the bulk of this air mass will end up is unclear at this time, but this morning’s models are flipping back to a more ominous projection.  We’ll keep you posted.

 

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today.  Rain spreading southeastward tonight.  Periods of mainly light rain continuing into early Christmas morning.  A chance of a few lingering showers Christmas afternoon, mainly along the foothills of Tulare and Kern Counties.  Partly to mostly cloudy Christmas night and Wednesday morning.  Clearing, especially along the west side, Wednesday afternoon and elsewhere Wednesday night.  variable cloudiness late Wednesday night and Thursday.  Becoming mostly clear and somewhat colder Friday through New Year’s Eve.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 57/46/53/37/54 Reedley 58/45/54/36/53 Dinuba 57/45/53/36/54
Porterville 58/44/54/38/55 Lindsay 58/42/54/35/55 Delano 59/47/54/38/54
Bakersfield 60/47/55/42/55 Taft 61/49/56/41/55 Arvin 61/47/55/40/56
Lamont 61/47/54/39/54 Pixley 58/45/54/37/54 Tulare 56/44/54/36/54
Woodlake 58/43/54/36/54 Hanford 58/47/54/38/54 Orosi 58/44/55/35/55

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Variable clouds

36/53

Friday

Areas of fog/mostly clear

31/52

Saturday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

27/51

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

28/53

Monday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

28/54

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 31 through January 6:  This model still indicates possibly well below average temperatures during the first week of January.  A blocking ridge of high pressure appears anchored off the Pacific coast, so the chance of precipitation remains low.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the southeast through the late evening hours at 5 to 15 MPH then will switch, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH later tonight through Christmas Day.  Winds will decrease Tuesday night to 5 to 10 MPH.  winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally light with the possible exception of the far west side which may have winds out of the north to northeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain: Rain is already spreading over northern California.  Precipitation will not arrive in the valley until probably after sunset with periods of light rain through the night and into early Christmas morning.  There will be a chance of a few lingering showers mainly near the foothills of Tulare and Kern Counties Tuesday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts will range from .25 to locally .33 in Fresno and Madera Counties, possibly upwards of .25 over the eastern side of Tulare County and around .20 in Kings and western Tulare Counties.  A tenth or two is possible over the valley portion of Kern County.

 

Expect dry weather Wednesday through the end of the year and, if models hold, possibly through the first week of 2019.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing this Christmas Eve night and more than likely Wednesday morning, as well.  There is a chance in areas with clear skies Wednesday morning that readings could dip into the low to mid 30s, especially along the west side which generally clears out first.

The air mass behind the incoming storm is colder.  Couple that with a second system which will dive through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Thursday and you have the recipe for a north/northeast flow as a low center develops over the Desert Southwest.  On Friday, and each day for the remainder of the year, temperatures could potentially get down into the 26 to 29 degree range with possibly 24 to 25 degree readings in isolated river bottom type spots.

Yesterday afternoon, I was getting hopeful we would not have to deal with a very cold weather episode the first week in January.  However, most of the models have switched gears again and show the massive high over the eastern Pacific with a big ridge extending into Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada.  While that’s developing, a low will be carving itself out possibly over southern California or even northwest Mexico.  Either way, between these features, a strong northerly flow would develop, plunging arctic air into the western U.S.  This potential pattern is still more than a week away, so I really hesitate to pronounce potentials other than to say this pattern will bear close scrutiny.  If models continue to show this type of pattern developing, I will certainly keep you informed.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield:  65%/95%

Actual Humidity December 23, 2018: Delano, 85%/70% Porterville, 90%/70%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 10%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .19, Parlier .18, Blackwell .23, Lindcove .16, Arvin .30, Orange Cove .20, Porterville .18, Delano .22  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 54, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 54, Delano 52

 

Record Temperatures: 70/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 668 -293

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for December so far: 49.7 +5.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 2.27 season. or -.65, Month to Date: .50 -.72

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.20, or -.45.  Month to Date: .52 -.19

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 288,  Parlier, 316 ,  Arvin, 244 Shafter, 333  Stratford, 292, Delano 309, Lindcove, 465, Porterville, 654

.   Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:10 am  Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:39

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  62 /  52 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  57 /  52 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  58 /  50 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  58 /  43 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  57 /  52 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  56 /  51 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1549 /  57 /  46 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  57 /  50 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  55 /  44 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    5.00   122    0.96    23     4.10    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    4.20   121    1.03    30     3.48    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    3.56   120    1.11    37     2.97    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    2.85    90    0.41    13     3.17    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    2.27    78    0.41    14     2.92    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    1.80    73    0.41    17     2.46    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.20    73    0.07     4     1.65     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.31    98    0.16    12     1.34     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    4.47   133    0.78    23     3.35    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    3.52   116    0.27     9     3.03    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    2.29    67    0.12     4     3.40    13.95

 

Next report: Monday afternoon/December 24