Summary: There are still a few batches of low level clouds stacked against the Sierra Nevada foothills and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis. These clouds continue to be regenerated by a northwest flow aloft. A cold low is now dropping through the Pacific Northwest and will dive southeastward into the Great Basin Thursday and Thursday night then into southeast California and Arizona Friday. In the meantime, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will ridge into the Pacific Northwest. The squeeze play will generate a northerly flow Friday then northeasterly Saturday through Sunday. This will pump a colder air mass into central California and, more importantly, a drier air mass which will lower dew points. Also, on Friday and Saturday there will be a surface high over the Great Basin which will generate an off shore surface flow. Add all this up and it means cold nights will be ahead beginning Friday morning but more so Saturday and Sunday mornings. More on potential temperatures is discussed below.
Once we get into New Year’s’ Eve and New Year’s Day, believe it or not some models are going back to showing a north/south flow from western Canada into the western United States. However, a westerly flow into British Columbia will cut off this charge of polar air so the bulk of the really cold stuff will remain east of California. Still, considering all the model variances of late, it does leave me a bit shaky. My gut feeling on this, though, is that we should be okay. Nevertheless, stay tuned.
Once we get to the third of January through the eighth, a mild westerly flow is projected on most models, resulting in above average daytime temperatures. One model actually shows a subtropical system trying to make its way into California about the fifth or sixth. That’s the odd model out for now, though.
Forecast: Outside of some lingering low clouds along the eastern and southern foothills, it will be mostly clear tonight with periods of high clouds at times. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night but upslope clouds may develop along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Becoming mostly clear and chilly Friday. Mostly clear Saturday and Sunday with possible patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to partly cloudy New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and/or low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/53/30/53 | Reedley 34/52/31/53 | Dinuba 32/52/31/52 | |
| Porterville 33/53/31/52 | Lindsay 31/53/29/53 | Delano 34/52/32/53 | |
| Bakersfield 39/54/35/55 | Taft 42/53/38/53 | Arvin 37/54/33/54 | |
| Lamont 35/53/33/54 | Pixley 32/53/30/52 | Tulare 32/52/29/52 | |
| Woodlake 32/53/30/52 | Hanford 33/53/31/52 | Orosi 30/52/28/53 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through mid morning Thursday. Winds Thursday afternoon and night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with possible gusts to 30 MPH along the west side. Winds Friday will be out of the north to northeast along the west side at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts with generally light winds elsewhere. Winds Saturday will be generally light and variable.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.
Frost Discussion: Skies are mostly clear this afternoon with the exception of the far eastern and southern flanks of the valley where a ribbon of lower level clouds remains. Dew points this afternoon have fallen into the low to mid 40s, which is certainly not a critical situation, but certainly will allow widespread low to mid 30s tonight with upper 20s possible in the coldest low lying frost pockets. To our north, a blanket of high clouds is moving through northern California and will arrive in central California overnight. They may be dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process, but that’s not a given. Also, areas of fog and low clouds may form after midnight, mainly along the east side and in Kern County. As a cold low drops into Nevada, and eventually into southern California and Arizona, a northerly flow will develop late Thursday, eventually turning northeasterly Thursday night and Friday, pumping colder and drier air into central California. Considering the Christmas Eve storm scoured out most of the valley, this system should have no trouble moving colder and drier air down the west side, eventually filtering into the remainder of the valley. Still, there’s always that possibility these northwest winds which will be lifted by the Sierra, could remain high enough in the atmosphere to fail to disturb the valley floor, thus the opportunity for fog and low clouds to develop would be there. For now, it appears Friday morning will see most locations in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. on Saturday and Sunday mornings, I have concerns that coldest locations could drop down to 24 to 25 degrees with many locations between 26 and 29. Hillsides would be in the low to mid 30s. we may see some moderation Monday morning. Some models show a low pressure system dropping in off shore, but probably too far off shore to do us any good. Most models show upper level high pressure building back into the region, capping the valley and possibly allowing for the formation of fog and low clouds. It’s also possible that dew points may remain too low for that, so we could see frost on the ground for the first few days of January.
Speaking of the first week in January, some models are again showing polar air plunging into the interior western United States, but so far it still appears most if not all of this air mass would remain to our east. It is, though, enough to make me feel uncomfortable, especially considering the inconsistencies of modeling information lately.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
34 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange cove
31 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
34 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
34 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
34 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Thursday morning/December 27