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Forecast

December 27, 2018/pm report

December 27, 2018

Summary: There is still a batch of stubborn low clouds along the Sierra Nevada foothills and against the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains.  It is always a difficult task to try to discern exactly when, and if, these clouds will burn off.  As of 1:00pm, Porterville and Bakersfield were overcast with a temperature of only 46 at Porterville and 48 at Bakersfield.  In the meantime, strong, gusty winds continue to blow from Madera County northward and along the west side.  Up at Castle Air force Base, winds are gusting to 35 MPH and are sustained at 24 MPH at the Lemoore Naval Air Station.  Skies are clear from western Fresno County southward to the west side of Kern County where colder and drier air is moving down from the north/northwest.  Many times under these situation, this drier air begins to mix in to the eastern and southern flanks of the valley and it probably will this time, but that is by no means guaranteed.  Winds from eastern Fresno County down to Kern County on the eastern side of the valley are generally at or less than 10 MPH.

 

Low temperatures tonight will be quite variable, depending on cloud and wind conditions.  On the west side, we have mainly the wind factor and for now I anticipate winds will decrease, but stay high enough to maintain temperatures in the low to mid 30s.  along the east side of Tulare County and much of Kern County, we have cloud cover as the dominant player.  If that low overcast remains in places like Lindsay and Porterville, lows will only chill into the low to mid 30s.  however, if skies open up and the stars shine brightly,  readings could easily dip to 27 to 30 degrees, again that’s under ideal frost conditions.

 

The flow aloft Friday morning will become northerly and then northeasterly Friday afternoon through Saturday as they wrap around the western flank of a low pressure system centered over Arizona.  That low will move far enough to the east to bring back a northwesterly flow by New Year’s Eve, ending the flow of relatively cold, dry air into central California.

 

From New Year’s Day through the fifth, upper level high pressure will be just off shore then ridge into the Gulf of Alaska.  Another low will develop somewhere over the southwest, dragging cold, modified polar air into the interior western U.S., and especially the Midwest.  Models the past few days have consistently shown this air mass heading to the east of the Sierra Nevada.  Even though my confidence is not that high in this regard, it still looks to be the best bet.  As far as precipitation is concerned, the remainder of the year will be dry and more than likely the first five days of January will follow suit.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies towards the center and west side of the valley.  Remaining partly to mostly cloudy especially over eastern and southeastern Tulare County and the eastern half of Kern County.  These clouds may dissipate during the night.  becoming mostly clear Friday with patchy night and morning fog.  Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday and cold.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy New Year’s Eve through New Year’s Day.  Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 29/51/27/53 Reedley 31/52/27/53 Dinuba 30/51/26/53
Porterville 30/52/27/53 Lindsay 29/52/26/54 Delano 32/52/28/53
Bakersfield 36/51/30/53 Taft 39/51/32/53 Arvin 33/51/28/53
Lamont 33/51/29/52 Pixley 30/52/26/53 Tulare 29/51/26/53
Woodlake 29/52/26/53 Hanford 31/52/28/54 Orosi 29/52/26/53

 

Winds:  Winds along the west side tonight will continue to be out of the north/northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, decreasing to 5 to 15 MPH after midnight.  Winds in eastern Fresno County and eastern Kern County and in Tulare County will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday through Saturday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions during the overnight hours.  Winds Sunday will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next seven to ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: Nailing down this one will be a fun challenge tonight.  The day has gone pretty much as expected with plenty of upslope clouds in eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties and eastern and southern Kern County.  The farther away you get from the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, the clearer the skies.  In western Fresno County, Kings County, and western Kern County, winds will likely remain up all night with readings generally in the low to mid 30s.  in eastern Fresno County and eastern Tulare County and eastern and southern Kern County, the upslope clouds currently visible on satellite imagery may dissipate…but they may not.

 

Where cloud cover remains solid during the night, mid to upper 30s are likely.  However, where skies open up and become mostly clear, lows ranging from 27 to 31 are likely, assuming wind conditions are near calm.

 

Saturday and Sunday mornings will more than likely be colder as more and more dry air infiltrates the valley.  Skies should begin to clear along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley, allowing temperatures to fall to possibly 24 to 25 degrees in the coldest, wind sheltered, low lying locations.   Twenty six to 29 will be the norm elsewhere.

 

As we mentioned on several occasions, it’s possible this coming northeast flow could drive right over the top of the valley, leaving the lower few thousand feet undisturbed.  If this occurs, not only would it be possible for the low clouds to hang in there, but ground fog would also have a better chance of taking hold.  However, that’s a minority possibility.

 

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day could potentially be equally as cold with perhaps a degree or two of moderation if this dry, relatively cold air mass becomes sealed in under building high pressure.  A northwest flow aloft will begin Monday and it will become westerly by midweek.  However, a warm air inversion will seal the valley’s fate whether or whether or not we begin to enjoy rising dew points.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

28

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

27

Famoso

31

Madera

29

Belridge

30

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

30

Arvin

32

Lamont

32

Plainview

29

Mettler

34

Edison

32

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

33

Tivy Valley

30

Kite Road South

33

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing                

 

Next report: Friday morning/December 28