December 29, 2018
Summary: A north/northeast flow aloft and a low center over the Four Corners region are keeping a north/northeast flow over California. The cold dry air has pretty much solidified now on the valley floor, meaning well below freezing temperatures will again occur Sunday morning throughout the growing area, even though most locations are 1 to 3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Still, dew points are just about the same. The eastern Pacific high will try to nudge into northern and central California Sunday, briefly turning the winds aloft out of the northwest. That will be very short lived, however, as a very cold trough of low pressure will dig southward over the interior west New Year’s Eve and Day.
In the meantime, by New Year’s Day, a cold trough will extend from the Dakotas to southern California, creating yet another northeast flow. A surface high will also pop up over the Great Basin for yet another off shore surface flow. California will be on the far western fringe of this air mass, but will probably be close enough for some of the modified arctic air to make its way into central California. Winds initially out of the northwest will pick up, especially along the far western side of the valley, with the colder, dry air mass infiltrating the rest of the valley New Year’s Day. This flow will continue into New Year’s night, but fortunately it will be short lived. Models continue to depict a zone of flat high pressure extending from the eastern Pacific breaking into California. This will result in a radical change which will bring winds aloft out of the west which is a much milder flow.
About the fifth or sixth, models are still hinting at a pattern which could result in rain for the valley. This is the third day in a row model indicators have been pointing in that direction. It’s possible rain could occur as early as a week from today. For now, I’m going to continue with a dry forecast as I just need more information to go on to see if the blessing of rain for the valley could actually occur.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night. mostly clear to partly cloudy New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday with increasing clouds Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/53/30/51 | Reedley 28/54/30/50 | Dinuba 27/53/29/51 | |
| Porterville 28/54/30/50 | Lindsay 27/54/29/51 | Delano 29/54/30/52 | |
| Bakersfield 33/55/34/52 | Taft 34/55/37/53 | Arvin 28/55/29/52 | |
| Lamont 28/54/30/52 | Pixley 28/53/30/51 | Tulare 27/53/29/50 | |
| Woodlake 28/53/29/51 | Hanford 29/53/30/50 | Orosi 27/53/29/50 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Sunday evening. Late Sunday night through New Year’s Day, winds along mainly the far west side of the valley will increase initially out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH. winds elsewhere will generally be in the 5 to 10 MPH range with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north. Winds will be out of the north to northeast Tuesday along the far west side of the valley at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing Tuesday night with light winds returning Wednesday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least the first five days of January. Some models over the past three days have been hinting at a pattern change beginning around the sixth which could possibly bring precipitation to central California. For now, I want to keep the forecast dry until more information creates a better picture, but even the latest two week model out this afternoon is indicating a better than even chance of precipitation over, believe it or not, the southern half of California.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures last night were unbelievably uniform. Every location but one ranged between 26 and 29 degrees. Ivanhoe, Fowler, east Porterville, McFarland, and Famoso all dropped to 27 degrees. Rio Bravo chilled down to 26. I had one grower contact me earlier today with an unprotected low spot down to 24.
Tonight will be very similar, even though temperatures this afternoon are 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday. Dew points are roughly the same, ranging in the low to mid 30s up and down the line. Widespread mid to upper 20s are likely tonight as strong radiational cooling occurs under a mostly clear sky.
Coldest unprotected areas tonight should be at about 25 to 26 with most flat terrain locations ranging between 27 and 30 degrees. Hillsides will be in the low to mid 30s again. The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
On Monday morning, we may see marginally warmer conditions. We may have the blessing of in and out cloud cover helping us out. On New Year’s Day, we will observe a cold trough of low pressure extending from the Dakotas to southern California. Again, a northeast flow aloft will develop and a surface high will develop over the Great Basin, resulting in an off shore surface flow. My gut feeling says this air mass will be a tad colder than the current one, which may…and I emphasize the word may…bring unprotected low spots down to 23 to 25 or so. Like any cold weather event, there are many variables to consider but that’s where I leaning at this time, especially for Tuesday but even more so Wednesday morning.
Fortunately, this northeast flow will be short lived as models show a flat zone of upper level high pressure extending across the eastern Pacific and into the western United States. This will result in a west to east flow over California, bringing much milder air in. couple that with an on shore flow and we should see higher dew points and milder overnight lows. We could even see precipitation about a week from now. I need a bit more information to add that officially to the forecast, but even if it doesn’t rain, above average temperatures will prevail.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
Mcfarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Sunday morning/December 30