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January 7, 2019/report

January 7, 2019

Summary: The latest storm system has exited central California, resulting in some pretty decent precipitation amounts.  More than a half inch was recorded over Fresno and Madera Counties sloping to just a few hundredths over the valley portion of Kern County.  As this system pulls away, the next will be knocking at our door Tuesday evening.  This system is massive in scope, but the main dynamics will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Central California will be on the southern flank of this storm.  It appears now precipitation amounts will be less than with yesterday’s event.

 

We are in an ideal pattern for increasing precipitation amounts this week, especially over the high Sierra and its snowpack.  Even thought these storms are relatively mild, the backcountry will pick up several feet of new snow before this is over.  Precipitation will arrive in the valley again Tuesday night, continuing on and off through Wednesday with a chance of showers Wednesday night.  a weak ridge will follow early Thursday through Thursday night.  with a  very active Pacific Ocean and a strong west to southwest flow, new storms will be steered into California, the next as early Friday with a chance of rain on any given day from Saturday through Monday.

 

Even the models going out through next week are showing an active Pacific Ocean with the possibility of storm systems moving on shore from time to time.  We haven’t seen one of these for a while so let’s hope it continues.

 

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today.  Partly cloudy tonight through Tuesday morning with areas of fog possible Tuesday morning.  An increasing chance of rain Tuesday night and at times through Wednesday.  A chance of showers Wednesday night.  becoming mostly to partly cloudy Thursday through Friday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Friday morning leading to a chance of rain by Friday evening. Periods of rain Friday night and Saturday. A chance of rain at any given time Saturday night through Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 62/49/62/49/60 Reedley 61/50/62/48/60 Dinuba 61/47//61/48/58
Porterville 63/48/62/48/62 Lindsay 62/46/62/48/61 Delano 63/48/62/49/61
Bakersfield 64/40/65/49/62 Taft 63/51/65/50/62 Arvin 64/50/65/49/62
Lamont 64/50/65/49/62 Pixley 62/47/62/49/59 Tulare 62/47/62/47/59
Woodlake 63/48/62/48/60 Hanford 63/47/62/48/60 Orosi 62/46/62/48/60

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Partly cloudy

43/72

Friday

PM rain

48/62

Saturday

Rain likely

48/61

Sunday

Periods of rain

48/60

Monday

Chance of rain

44/59

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 14 through January 20:  This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest.  Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today, decreasing to 6 to 12 MPH Tuesday.  Winds later Tuesday night and Wednesday will increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side and possibly from Fresno County north.  Winds Thursday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: A few rain fall stats from the exiting storm are as follows:  Stratford .33, Parlier .58, Blackwell .13, Lindcove .42, Arvin .12, Orange Cove .70, Delano .16, Porterville .31, Fresno .56, Bakersfield .01.

 

Expect dry weather for the remainder of the day through Tuesday morning.  The next chance of precipitation will arrive possibly as early as late Tuesday afternoon in Fresno and Madera Counties with periods of mainly light rain Tuesday night through Wednesday and a chance of rain Wednesday night.  rainfall amounts from the Tuesday night/Wednesday system should be less than the exiting storm.  Maybe upwards of .25 in Fresno and Madera Counties with lesser amounts, generally speaking, farther south.  The active weather pattern will continue however as a new storm bears down on the California coast late Friday through Saturday with periods of rain.  In fact, we could have periods of rain any time from Friday night through Monday.  With these storms developing rapidly over the Pacific, timing issues will be a challenge.

 

As far as later next week is concerned, the possibility of more rain appears to be on the horizon.  In fact, the two week model indicates northern and central California have the greatest potential as any locale in the country.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and will be above freezing through the coming week and more than likely beyond.

                  

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 80%/100%, Bakersfield: 70%/95%

Actual Humidity January 6, 2019: Delano, 100%/56% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .28, Blackwell .41, Lindcove .28, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .NA, Delano .33  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 48, Orange Cove 51, Porterville NA, Delano 45

 

Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 950 -308

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 43.6 -0.4

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 3.19 season. or -.71, Month to Date: .86 +.48

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.41, or -.78.  Month to Date: .10 -.12

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473,  Parlier, 499 ,  Arvin, 486 Shafter, 517  Stratford, 480, Delano 490, Lindcove, 692, Porterville, 892

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:12 am  Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:45

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  58 /  44 / 0.15 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 / 0.14 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  54 /  42 / 0.20 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  58 /  37 / 0.17 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  55 /  36 / 0.11 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  60 /  53 / 0.11 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  57 /  40 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  55 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  57 /  41 / 0.23 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1533 /  59 /  39 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.28    6.31   121    1.42    27     5.22    14.06

MODESTO                       0.05    4.69   103    1.55    34     4.54    13.11

MERCED                        0.13    4.19   101    1.49    36     4.16    12.50

MADERA                        0.09    3.29    75    0.60    14     4.39    12.02

FRESNO                        0.09    2.72    70    0.48    12     3.90    11.50

HANFORD                       0.03    2.13    57    0.81    22     3.71    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.01    1.41    64    0.07     3     2.19     6.47

BISHOP                        0.01    1.58    84    0.16     9     1.87     5.18

SALINAS                       0.09    5.00   114    1.11    25     4.38    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.08    4.05    97    0.38     9     4.17    12.78

SANTA MARIA                      T    3.59    79    0.43     9     4.55    13.95

 

Next report:  Monday afternoon, January 7