January 8, 2019
Summary: It has been a rather quirky morning over the valley portion of Kern County. At the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine, winds gusted to 70 MPH and are currently gusting to 43 MPH. Edison, at last report, had wind gusts to 43 MPH, Lamont 10 MPH, Mettler has just had light winds and at Meadows Field in Bakersfield, the 4:54 am report had winds out of the southeast at 25 MPH, gusting to 39. As of 6:54 am at Meadows Field, the winds were out of the southeast at 9. Go figure. The winds over the mountain areas were no surprise, however the gusty winds near the valley floor are a surprise and, as just illustrated, are quite quirky with a mind of their own.
There is a very large low pressure system 500 miles to the west of the coast of the Pacific Northwest with a cold front running from north to south from western Washington to well west of central and southern California. Most of the high resolution models this morning indicate the winds will slowly die off this afternoon, but will remain rather strong and gusty over the higher elevations. There is a considerable amount of subtropical moisture moving southwest to northeast into California. As the front which is still well off to sea approaches, bands of precipitation will move inland later tonight through Wednesday night. a rather poorly defined upper high will move from west to east across California Thursday through Friday, resulting in dry weather, although areas of fog and low clouds are possible Thursday and Friday mornings.
There is quite a difference on how models are handling two storms still way out over the ocean. These models show the low moving east/southeast, eventually showing the main dynamics moving through northern Baja and southern California. One is expected Saturday with a second system theoretically following a similar path late Sunday and Monday. Other models, however, show the bulk of the precipitation moving inland further north towards northern and central California. At this point, the best course of action would be to call for a chance of precipitation anytime beginning Friday night and lasting through Monday. There will, of course, be dry slots between bands of precipitation.
After Monday, models are very inconsistent for next week. But they do have one thing in common and that is the chance of precipitation for central California is relatively high with temperatures remaining above average.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through Wednesday night with periods of rain later tonight through Wednesday night and a chance of showers early Thursday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday with areas of fog and low clouds possible Thursday night and Friday night. mostly cloudy Friday night through Monday with periods of rain possible anytime from Friday night through Monday night with dry slots between bands of showers. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/50/60/41/58 | Reedley 64/50/60/43/57 | Dinuba 62/48/58/42/57 | |
| Porterville 65/49/61/42/60 | Lindsay 64/49/59/42/59 | Delano 65/50/58/43/58 | |
| Bakersfield 69/52/63/45/62 | Taft 66/51/63/46/61 | Arvin 69/49/63/44/61 | |
| Lamont 67/50/63/44/61 | Pixley 65/49/58/42/58 | Tulare 63/49/57/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 64/48/58/42/58 | Hanford 64/49/59/41/59 | Orosi 63/47/59/41/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
PM rain 42/62 |
Saturday
Periods of rain possible 49/61 |
Sunday
Periods of rain possible 46/59 |
Monday
Periods of rain possible 49/55 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of rain 41/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Refer to the summary portion of this report for the quirky wind reports. The bottom line is that from now through roughly midafternoon, locally gusty high southeast winds could make it down to the valley floor at the usual trouble spots. Tonight through Wednesday night, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH with local gusts to25 MPH and with stronger gusts from mainly Fresno County northward and along the west side. Local gusts to 25 MPH are also possible near the base of the mountains, mainly in Kern County. For Thursday through Friday, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH. Over the weekend there will be periods of breezy weather.
Rain: The chance for light rain will begin later tonight along the west side then will spread eastward over the remainder of the valley in the predawn hours with periods of rain Wednesday and Wednesday night. there will be a small chance of showers lasting into Thursday. Most of Thursday through Friday will be dry then from Friday night through Monday there will be a chance of rain at any given time with dry slots between rain bands. A slight chance of showers will continue Tuesday. We obviously have a very active weather pattern which hopefully will continue for the next several weeks.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and will be above freezing through the coming week and more than likely beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 55%/100%
Actual Humidity January 7, 2019: Delano, 92%/55% Porterville, 94%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .30, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .29, Arvin .44, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .NA, Delano .36 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 47, Blackwell 50, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 72/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 960 -319
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 45.2 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.19 season. or -.78, Month to Date: .86 +.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.46, or -.76. Month to Date: .16 -.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 473, Parlier, 499 , Arvin, 422 Shafter, 519 Stratford, 481, Delano 490, Lindcove, 692, Porterville, 895
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 5:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 48 / 0.26 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.48 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 45 / 0.26 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / 0.14 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 63 / 54 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 65 / 45 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 51 / 0.06 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 68 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 6.92 130 1.42 27 5.31 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 4.97 108 1.55 34 4.62 13.11
MERCED 0.02 4.81 113 1.49 35 4.26 12.50
MADERA T 3.54 79 0.60 13 4.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.19 80 0.48 12 3.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.04 2.39 63 0.81 21 3.80 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 1.46 66 0.07 3 2.22 6.47
BISHOP T 1.58 83 0.16 8 1.91 5.18
SALINAS T 5.08 114 1.11 25 4.46 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 4.43 104 0.38 9 4.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 3.76 81 0.43 9 4.63 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon, January 8