January 9, 2019
Summary: A band of light precipitation roughly 50 miles wide extends from southern Fresno County on the north south/southwest to Bakersfield on the south. There are some locations along the central coast which have received copious amounts of precipitation from this storm. Some along the Highway 1 corridor right along the beaches have recorded 3 to 6 inches of rain over the past 48 hours. Kern County is finally getting some light precipitation. This band will continue to move across the south valley into the evening hours then will finally come to an end by midnight. A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will build in after midnight and maintain dry weather through Friday.
I’m only cautiously optimistic about more rain Saturday through Monday. A couple of models are suggesting a system will move southward along the coast, spreading rain over the coastal ranges but won’t make it into the valley. The low will then move inland through southern California then weaken Saturday night. a stronger Pacific storm will move through the eastern Pacific and will be near the central California coast by late Sunday. This system will have a better than even chance of spreading rain over the entire area.
Also, there is a strong surface low associated with this storm which could possibly create a high wind situation in the extreme south valley during the second half of the weekend. Areas of greatest risk of these winds occurring will be in the extreme south, ranging from the Arvin/Edison area westward to around Mettler and possibly as far west as roughly Taft. It is always a chore to try to outguess these winds to determine where and how strong they’ll be. For now, suffice it to say, Saturday night and Sunday would be a time frame to watch.
Monday through Friday of next week will see the continuation of a zonal flow right across the Pacific into California. Embedded within this flow will be pacific storms which will arrive in California from time to time. Which area of the state will be most affected is unclear at this time, but it seems fairly likely the Kern County mountains northward would be a good bet.
Forecast: Periods of light rain in the south valley through this evening. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy after midnight through Thursday morning. Areas of fog and low clouds will be possible late tonight and Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday leading to a chance of rain Friday night through Saturday with the greatest risk along the west side of the valley. A chance of rain at times Saturday night through Monday with the best chance once again along the west side. Expect a chance of rain at any given time from Monday night through Wednesday with the greatest risk Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/60/42/62 | Reedley 50/61/42/63 | Dinuba 48/59/41/61 | |
| Porterville 49/60/41/63 | Lindsay 49/60/40/63 | Delano 50/61/41/63 | |
| Bakersfield 41/61/46/65 | Taft 51/62/44/64 | Arvin 51/62/44/67 | |
| Lamont 50/62/43/66 | Pixley 49/60/40/61 | Tulare 49/59/40/60 | |
| Woodlake 49/60/42/62 | Hanford 49/61/41/63 | Orosi 48/59/40/62 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Thursday through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH. Winds Friday night through Saturday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, but it is possible winds could be out of the east to southeast at 20 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts. We are also looking at the possibility of localized strong winds over the valley portion of Kern County sometime Saturday or Sunday, especially near the base of the Tehachapi and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada. If these winds develop, they would generally be out of the east or southeast. That’s only if low pressure approaches the central coast, according to most surface pressure maps. Right now, it ‘s just something to monitor. For now all I can say is the proper configuration is there should the situation arise.
Rain: Light rain will continue over portions of Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties into the evening. It will end by midnight. Dry weather will prevail later tonight through Friday. The first of two systems will be just off shore Friday night and Saturday. Some models don’t’ show the low close enough to the coast to move over the coastal ranges and into the valley. The second storm encompasses late Sunday night through Monday and will be closer to the coast, meaning the chance of precipitation will be higher. There may also be strong winds blowing over the top of the valley Saturday night and Sunday, actually reaching the Kern County portion of the valley floor and zapping possible rainfall totals there. Therefore, rainfall totals could be significant over Madera and eastern Fresno County with considerably less in the south valley due to rain shadowing. The good news is that next week will be unsettled from time to time as storms develop over the ocean, ride the jet stream into California, and the chance of precipitation increases. Which days rain will arrive is difficult to discern at this time due to the evolution of the systems. Let’s just say there will be rain on any given day through next Friday.
Frost Discussion: Each night will be above freezing for the next seven to ten days.
Next report: Thursday morning/January 10