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Forecast

January 10, 2019/pm report

January 10, 2019

Summary:  The fog and low clouds have dissipated in some areas while most other locations were reporting a low overcast.  Temperatures as of 2:00pm were generally in the mid to upper 50s with dew points in the low to mid 50s.  with a generally clear sky during the first half of the night, ground fog will have no problem forming and it could be fairly widespread again early Friday morning.  Higher clouds will begin to increase Friday with a chance of rain  late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  Models this afternoon are of no help in deciding how far east the rain shield will progress with this next storm.  If there’s any consensus at all, the Coast Range will get west and possibly the west side.  As far as the remainder of the valley is concerned, I’ll call it a 50/50 proposition.

 

The low will finally begin to move inland Saturday morning through southern California.  There will be a brief period of time from Friday afternoon through Friday night when locally strong winds may occur near the base of the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains.  If these winds do occur, the time of greatest risk would be late Friday afternoon through the early morning hours Saturday.  One model showed Bakersfield experiencing winds out of the southeast at 23 MPH, gusting into the mid 30s.  this would mean stronger winds closer to the mountains.  By Friday afternoon, the winds will subside.

 

I’ve lost count on how many storms have affected central California recently, but the next will arrive Sunday night and Monday.  This low is somewhat stronger and will meander off the central coast for about 48 hours, shunting bands of rain inland from time to time.  We may see another period of strong, gusty winds below the Kern County mountains which could be a bit more widespread.  Each wind episode will have its own personality.  By Wednesday, a strong storm will be off the northern California coast, affecting most of California Wednesday and Thursday.  We may see a dry period during the second half of the of the weekend into the early part of the following week.  This note of interest:  beginning around the 22nd of January and lasting through about the 26th, there may be a bona fide severe arctic outbreak over most of the lower 48.  Right now, models show this air mass remaining to our east, but not by much.

 

Forecast: Fog and/or low clouds tonight into Friday morning.  Increasing clouds Friday with a chance of rain later Friday afternoon through early Saturday, mainly along the western and southern flanks of the valley.  Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with areas of fog developing late Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Periods of rain will be likely Sunday night through Tuesday.  Rain likely Tuesday night through Thursday with a chance of showers Thursday night.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 43/63/49/62 Reedley 42/63/48/63 Dinuba 40/61/49/62
Porterville 40/64/48/63 Lindsay 40/63/48/62 Delano 44/65/49/63
Bakersfield 45/67/50/63 Taft 47/66/50/62 Arvin 43/67/50/62
Lamont 44/65/50/63 Pixley 43/61/48/61 Tulare 40/60/48/61
Woodlake 42/62/49/62 Hanford 42/61/48/61 Orosi 42/63/47/60

 

Winds:  Winds through Friday morning will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Later Friday afternoon and night, winds will be out of the east/southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.  Gusts to 45 MPH are possible over the valley portion of Kern County, especially near the base of the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains.  These winds will die off by late morning with winds mainly out of the southeast Saturday afternoon and night at 5 to 15 MPH.  Winds Sunday will be generally less than 10 MPH then will begin to increase late Sunday afternoon through Monday at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the west side and a chance of gusts to 50 MPH over the valley portion of Kern County, especially near the base of the mountains.

 

Rain:  This next storm which will arrive later Friday afternoon through Saturday morning will be a teaser.  Rain will begin to spread over the Coast Range, possibly affecting the west side of the valley and Kern County.  Most models this afternoon give a 50/50 proposition of measurable rain on the east side.  This system will move eastward through southern California by Saturday afternoon.  The second half of Saturday and most of Sunday appear dry then more rain will spread in from the west by Sunday night and continue from Monday through Tuesday as this is a slow mover.  By Wednesday, a very strong low will be off the northern California coast with periods of rain at times Wednesday and Thursday and a chance of showers Friday.  We could see upper level high pressure take over later next weekend for the possibility of several days of dry weather.

 

Frost Discussion: Beginning theoretically about the 22nd, there could be a massive arctic outbreak originating near the Arctic Circle and eventually diving into the lower 48.  Models are showing California just to the west of this air mass, meaning so far, so good.  Generally speaking, the farther east your progress, the greater the risk of being affected by this air mass.  This winter has shown a completely lack of arctic air in most areas with a fairly consistent westerly flow.  So, if it does occur, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise.

 

Next report: Friday morning/January 11