January 15, 2019
Summary: Once again, Kern County has been pounded by high winds, heavy rain over the mountain areas as well as snow and winds over portions of the valley floor. Winds at some locations were not as strong as yesterday, so far. Taft, Mettler, Bakersfield, Lamont, Delano, and even as far north as Allensworth have reported wind gusts between 30 and 40 MPH. It is certainly a wild ride over the ridge route today. At last report, at the bottom of the hill winds were sustained at 43, gusting to 70 MPH. elsewhere, winds were relatively tame.
Much of the valley has been in a big time rain shadow all day long as strong energy moving inland from the Pacific is raised up along the coast range then descends on the valley side. As it descends, it dries out. Most of the rain in the valley is al the way north in Merced County and points northward to find anything significant. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving inland along the California coast in southern California so they will once again take quite a pounding.
Periods of rain will continue this evening then we’ll get a bit of a break after midnight into Wednesday morning, though I wouldn’t rule out a few showers. The star performer will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon in the form of a powerful low with very strong dynamics. It could potentially dump heavy rain over all of central California, especially over the Sierra Nevada. For later Wednesday through Thursday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible over the foothills with 3 to 5 feet of new snow above 8,000 feet. With subtropical air flooding in ahead of this storm, snow levels will rise all the way up to 8,000 feet then lower later Thursday as the cold sector of the storm arrives.
Plenty of isobars show up on model information, meaning the potential for widespread strong winds will be there from later Wednesday afternoon through about midday Thursday. One model actually comes out with a number of sustained winds at 28 MPH at normally wind sheltered Porterville. I’ll believe that when I see it. At any rate, winds in the 20 to 30 MPH range should be fairly common with gusts to 40 MPH certainly not out of the question.
Models still indicate as much as 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall on the valley floor, especially in Fresno and Madera Counties with possibly more than .50 in normally arid Kern County.
The rain will turn to showers later Thursday afternoon and night. some models show a chance of showers lasting into Friday morning. Upper level high pressure will fill in behind this storm for dry weather over the weekend. With high pressure and a soaked valley floor, fog and low clouds will no doubt become a problem. There is a minimal chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday morning as a front tries to punch its way through the high. After this system moves eastward, a massive high will cover the western ¼ of the U.S. with a ridge eventually extending east of the Arctic Circle.
The first of possible multiple arctic outbreaks will occur Saturday east of the Rockies. From later next week through the following weekend, we could see cold weather problems. This is discussed below. One thing is almost a surety, and that is dry weather should last all of next week with widespread fog and low clouds possibly lasting through the day.
Forecast: Periods of showers through this evening, tapering off into a chance of showers tonight and Wednesday morning. Rain later Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, heavy at times, with gusty southeast winds. Periods of rain Thursday afternoon. Showers Thursday night and Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with areas of fog and low clouds Saturday and Sunday mornings. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon with a small chance of light showers Sunday evening through Monday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 46/62/54/59 | Reedley 47/62/55/61 | Dinuba 46/60/54/61 | |
| Porterville 46/64/55/63 | Lindsay 45/63/54/62 | Delano 47/65/55/63 | |
| Bakersfield 49/69/60/65 | Taft 51/67/59/65 | Arvin 53/68/60/66 | |
| Lamont 49/67/58/64 | Pixley 48/63/56/63 | Tulare 46/61/54/61 | |
| Woodlake 46/62/54/62 | Hanford 46/63/55/60 | Orosi 45/62/54/59 | |
Winds: Once again, Kern County has been pounded by high winds. Winds at some locations were not as strong as yesterday, so far. Taft, Mettler, Bakersfield, Lamont, Delano, and even as far north as Allensworth have reported wind gusts between 30 and 40 MPH. It is certainly a wild ride over the ridge route today. At last report, at the bottom of the hill winds were sustained at 43, gusting to 70 MPH. elsewhere, winds were relatively tame.
There is a .30 of an inch difference in pressure between Barstow and Monterey. This will continue to allow strong, gusty winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor well into the evening hours. By late this evening, this complex system will have moved on shore, rapidly equalizing pressure differences with decreasing winds. Winds later tonight through Wednesday morning will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH in Kern County and 10 to 15 MPH north of the Kern County line. Stronger gusts can be expected.
As Wednesday afternoon wears on, pressure differences between an intense winter storm off the Oregon/northern California coast and the interior west will set up. This pattern is different than the one that caused the strong winds down in Kern County the past couple of days. The potential for strong, gusty winds throughout the valley is there from later Wednesday afternoon through roughly midday Thursday. Winds of 20 to 30 MPH are certainly possible with gusts to 45. It’s unusual to have a model predict sustained winds at 28 MPH at typically wind sheltered Porterville, however that’s on the display this afternoon. Winds will begin to subside Thursday afternoon then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH by evening, decreasing to 5 to 15 MPH by Thursday night and Friday morning.
Rain: Most of the valley has been under a strong rain shadow today. Heavy amounts of rain have been falling along the coast and over the coastal mountains, but as the air descends on the valley side of the Coast Range, it dries out with only light showers remaining. Most of the heavier precipitation in the valley has been from Merced County northward with the least amounts along the west side and in Kern County. Periods of light rain will continue this evening then just a chance of showers after midnight into Wednesday morning. The main event will set up later Wednesday afternoon through about midday Thursday. A powerful Pacific storm with an abundance of subtropical moisture flanked underneath it will move right into central California. The possibility of between 1 and 2 inches of rain is there along the eastern flank of the valley from mainly northern Tulare County north, but even elsewhere substantial amounts of precipitation may occur with .50 to 1.00 totals possible along the west side and I wouldn’t be surprised move than .50 in usually parched Kern County.
The rain will turn to showers Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, possibly lasting through Friday morning. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and through the weekend. A weak cold front will attempt to move through the high Sunday night through Monday morning with a small chance of light showers. However, after that, dry weather is guaranteed through all of next week and possibly considerably longer.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for the next week.
So, we’ll go ahead and discuss the medium range outlook. The arctic blast which will dive southeastward into the Midwest east of the Rockies is still in play. My main concern continues to be models from the 24th through the 27th. This afternoon, models are similar to what they have been the past few days in showing a massive high moving farther off shore with a ridge extending northward all the way to the Arctic Circle. A wave of low pressure would move through California during this time frame, possibly followed by a northerly flow with an air mass originating far to the north. This could lead to a freeze event. As of now, that’s not officially in the forecast, but it is certainly up for discussion.
The two week model this afternoon shows the entire lower 48 with either below average or much below average temperatures with one lone exception and that’s California. Hopefully, reality will concur and this air mass will stay east of the Sierra Nevada. We’ll keep you posted.
Next report: Wednesday morning/January 16