January 15, 2019
Summary: Kern County is in for another rough day. A complex low pressure system is just off shore with one section moving through southern California today and the other moving northward towards the San Francisco Bay Area. Surface pressure differences will increase again this afternoon for strong winds over the Kern County mountains, some of which may blow down slope for another round of east to southeast winds in the same areas that had so much trouble yesterday. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are possible, mainly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, but like yesterday, winds may progress to the northwest and into the Bakersfield area.
In the meantime, radar and satellite show moderate to heavy precipitation moving on shore along the central coast. Unlike yesterday, this precipitation will punch in from the west as the westerlies finally break through into California. Expect rain at times through Wednesday morning, possibly locally heavy at times, north of Kern County and mainly along the east side.
We may see a short break late morning through mid afternoon Wednesday but by late Wednesday afternoon, the main event will be approaching in the form of a powerful Pacific storm. The parent low from this system will be just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday night and Thursday morning with a 150 knot jet stream centered right at north/central California. Orographics will play a huge role with this event as the jet stream is lifted over the Sierra Nevada. Copious amounts of water will fall from those clouds with possibly 3 to 5 inches in the foothills and about 3 to 5 feet of new snow above about 8,000 feet. This storm’s dynamics will be excellent with subtropical moisture flowing in from the west/southwest and cold air moving into the northwest flank of the storm.
Plenty of isobars show up for late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Isobars are lines of equal pressure and the more there are on charts, the greater the potential for strong winds. Winds of 30 to 40 MPH in the valley would not be a surprise with stronger gusts along the west side from late Wednesday afternoon through midday Thursday.
The heavy rain will taper off into showers late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night with showers continuing in the mountains through Friday with perhaps a few lingering showers over the valley floor Friday morning.
A fundamental pattern change will occur Friday afternoon and beyond as upper level high pressure begins to build over the eastern Pacific. A weak cold front will try to punch through Sunday night and Monday morning for a small chance of light showers. Otherwise, there will be a massive upper high building further and further north along the west coast and the western one-fourth of the U.S. for a prolonged period of dry weather next week and quite possibly beyond.
We are still watching closely bitterly cold air masses diving south, initially east of the Rockies then further west later on. This is discussed in the frost section below.
Forecast: Periods of rain today, possibly locally heavy this afternoon and evening north of Kern County and away from the west side. Periods of rain later tonight and Wednesday morning with a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Rain Wednesday night through Thursday, heavy at times, tapering off into showers late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. expect strong, gusty winds from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A few lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Areas of fog and low clouds possible Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness later Sunday with a small chance of light showers Sunday night and Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon. Areas of fog and low clouds Tuesday morning, otherwise mostly clear.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/45/61/53/60 | Reedley 58/46/63/54/62 | Dinuba 56/45/60/54/62 | |
| Porterville 59/45/64/55/63 | Lindsay 58/46/63/53/63 | Delano 60/48/65/55/63 | |
| Bakersfield 62/49/69/56/64 | Taft 62/51/68/57/65 | Arvin 63/48/70/55/65 | |
| Lamont 62/49/68/56/64 | Pixley 60/47/64/54/63 | Tulare 58/46/60/54/62 | |
| Woodlake 58/46/61/54/60 | Hanford 58/46/61/55/62 | Orosi 58/47/61/53/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM showers possible 44/58 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 38/57 |
Sunday
PM showers possible 36/60 |
Monday
AM showers possible 42/59 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 38/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: This model indicates well below average temperatures over roughly 90% of the lower 48. The exception is western California which is predicted to have near average temperatures. This is due to arctic air possibly plunging into the western U.S. With a massive high just to our west, dry conditions should prevail.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: As of the time of this writing, winds were rather tranquil, even in Kern County. That may change this afternoon as surface pressure differences crank up again between an approaching off shore low and higher pressure over the interior. It’s possible wind conditions similar to yesterday will affect the same areas with wind gusts exceeding 40 MPH and possibly exceeding 50 MPH near the base of the Tehachapis. These winds may again work their way as far to the northwest at Bakersfield, which recorded a gust of 51 MPH yesterday afternoon.
As the low moves on shore, winds will begin to subside tonight. North of Kern County, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side.
Another kind of wind event will occur late Wednesday evening through Thursday. Very strong differences in pressure between a massive low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and the Desert Southwest/southern California will set up. Even locations that normally don’t experience strong winds may do so as winds increase out of the southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH possible, especially from Fresno County north. But, that possibility exists even further south. Winds will subside to around 10 to 15 MPH Wednesday evening with generally light winds returning Friday.
Rain: The complex low off shore has split. One section will move through the southern half of California today while the other jets northward into northern California. Expect periods of rain through tonight. Locally heavy rain is possible this afternoon and tonight, mainly along the east side north of Kern County. Wide variances in rainfall stats will occur due to rain shadows in the south valley and alone the west side. By and large, between now and noon Wednesday, .25 to .50 is not out of the question in locations that receive the heaviest amount of precipitation.
We may see a lull later Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Then the main event of this pattern will commence as rain rapidly spreads in from the west. This storm has all the key ingredients for a major rain event with possibly as much as one to two inches north of Kern County along the east side. The west side is a tougher call due to rain shadows, but there’s so much moisture involved that I feel .50 to 1.00 cannot be ruled out. Even over the valley portion of Kern County, .50 to .75 is possible.
Thunderstorms are also possible Thursday. If they occur, isolated locations could tally up more precipitation in a hurry.
The rain will turn to showers later Thursday afternoon and night with a few lingering showers Friday morning.
Dry weather will finally be realized Friday afternoon through at least Sunday. A weak cold front will try to punch through high pressure Sunday night and Monday for a small chance of light showers, but there’s a better chance we’ll remain dry.
Next week will be dry as a massive high covers the western one-fourth of the U.S. and the eastern Pacific.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be well above freezing tonight. It’s possible that on Saturday and Sunday mornings, the coldest locations could get down to 32 to 35 degrees or so, but in reality no frost is expected.
We are still closely monitoring the potential behavior of what may very well be massive arctic outbreaks beginning east of the Rockies this weekend. In the interim, high pressure will result in above average temperatures for the western one-fourth of the U.S.
My main concern is the possible pattern about the 24th and 25th. Models are showing multiple arctic outbreaks. By the time we hit that time frame, some models are showing a massive ridge jutting all the way to the Arctic Circle along the west coast with the possible formation of a low center over the Desert Southwest. This would create the ideal conditions for funneling arctic air southward into the western United States. For the second day in a row, some of these models are showing some of this air getting into California.
We are still a considerable time away from this possibility and it could very well be that this air remains to the east of the Sierra Nevada, but at least for this morning, the pattern appears a bit ominous.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid 20s to the mid 30s.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 80%/95%, Bakersfield: 60%/90%
Actual Humidity January 14, 2019: Delano, 97%/39% Porterville, 97%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .17, Parlier .25, Blackwell .30, Lindcove .25, Arvin .66, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .23, Delano .30 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 53, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 75/21. Average Temperatures: 54/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1052 -369
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.4 +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.45 season. or -1.04, Month to Date: 1.12 +.10
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.59, or -.89. Month to Date: .29 -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 500, Parlier, 514 , Arvin, 445 Shafter, 523 Stratford, 501, Delano 508, Lindcove, 753, Porterville, 1007
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 45 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.08 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 41 / 0.09 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 41 / 0.11 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 61 / 59 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 55 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 40 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 58 / 53 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 45 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 7.01 118 3.52 59 5.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.03 5.00 96 3.25 62 5.23 13.11
MERCED 0.01 4.84 97 1.99 40 4.98 12.50
MADERA 0.02 3.76 73 1.31 25 5.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.08 3.42 76 1.23 27 4.49 11.50
HANFORD 0.09 2.70 61 1.68 38 4.40 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 1.59 64 0.88 35 2.48 6.47
BISHOP T 1.58 72 0.20 9 2.20 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 5.13 101 2.13 42 5.06 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.22 5.31 108 2.16 44 4.91 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.18 5.24 99 1.95 37 5.27 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon, January 15