January 16, 2019
Summary: After a few hours of dry weather this morning, the last and the strongest of this series of storms is knocking at our door. Doppler radar indicates precipitation has spread into the San Francisco Bay area and the leading edge of the rain shield is roughly 120 miles to the west of the central coast. Precipitation will begin to advance into the valley late this afternoon and will be heavy at times tonight through Thursday morning. Rain totals of more than an inch would not surprise me along the east side from northern Tulare County northward through Madera County. Orographic lift will be just tremendous with this event with 3 to 5 inches of rain possible in the Sierra Nevada below the snow line and 3 to 5 feet of new snow.
The cold front will move through the valley later Thursday morning, or perhaps about midday or so. The colder sector of the storm will follow as the precipitation turns showery. A considerable amount of instability will follow the front for even a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon through the evening hours. Showers will taper off after midnight Thursday night with some lingering showers not out of the question Friday morning.
Friday afternoon through the weekend will be dry as upper level high pressure begins to build along the coast. A weak cold front will move down the valley Sunday night or Monday morning with just a small chance of scattered light showers. After this front moves through, very strong upper level high pressure will build over not just the eastern Pacific Ocean, but over much of the western U.S. as well. The main challenge will be the potential for widespread fog and/or low clouds, possibly persisting through the day in some areas.
Temperatures will largely be above average unless the fog really persists, holding down daytime temperatures with above average overnight lows. Even the new two week outlook is indicating a dry weather regime under high pressure with ideal conditions for fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Rain spreading over the valley later this afternoon. Rain tonight and Thursday morning, heavy at times. Showers Thursday afternoon and early evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers continuing then tapering off after midnight. A few lingering showers are possible Friday morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly cloudy Sunday night through Monday morning with a small chance of light showers. Clearing Monday afternoon. Mostly clear skies Monday night through Wednesday with increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/60/44/57 | Reedley 56/61/44/58 | Dinuba 54/59/43/57 | |
| Porterville 55/61/42/58 | Lindsay 55/62/42/58 | Delano 56/62/44/58 | |
| Bakersfield 60/66/48/59 | Taft 61/65/50/58 | Arvin 58/66/48/58 | |
| Lamont 59/65/49/58 | Pixley 56/62/43/57 | Tulare 54/59/43/57 | |
| Woodlake 54/60/44/59 | Hanford 55/61/43/59 | Orosi 54/59/42/58 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM Fog/PM sun 39/60 |
Sunday
Chance of pm showers 43/61 |
Monday
Chance of AM showers 44/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/PM sun 34/57 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 37/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 23 through January 29: This model indicates well below average temperatures over roughly 90% of the lower 48. The exception is western California which is predicted to have near average temperatures. This is due to arctic air possibly plunging into the western U.S. With a massive high just to our west, dry conditions should prevail.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will increase this afternoon to 15 to 25 MPH at times with gusts over 40 MPH possible from Fresno County north and along the entire west side as well as locally elsewhere through Thursday morning. Winds Thursday afternoon will be mostly out of the west at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, decreasing to 8 to 15 MPH later Thursday night. winds Friday will generally be in the 5 to 12 MPH range, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH range Friday through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rain will spread in from the west later this afternoon and will be heavy at times tonight and Thursday morning. Models are indicating there’s plenty of dynamics to the atmosphere along the cold front as it moves through tomorrow morning as well as tomorrow afternoon through the early evening hours. The possibility of locally heavy but fast moving thunderstorms is certainly there during that time frame. Showers will continue Thursday night then taper off after midnight with possibly a few lingering showers, mainly along the mountains, Friday morning. From Friday afternoon through the weekend, expect dry conditions. An anemic cold front will move through Sunday night and early Monday for only a small chance of light showers.
As far as rainfall estimates go for the current storm. It appears that .75 to possibly 1.25 is possible along the east side from northern Tulare County through Madera County. Along the west side, where rain shadows will prevail, between .50 and .75 is possible. In southeastern Tulare County, amounts of .75 to 1.00 seems likely. And there’s even the possibility of more than .50 over the valley portion of Kern County.
The extended forecast for next week indicates dry conditions. Even the model going out through the 29th indicates there will be persistent high pressure over and along the west coast for an excellent chance of dry conditions continuing.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and each night for at least the next week. Models this morning are more encouraging in keeping arctic air out of California. The latest models for about the 23 through the 25 show weather that’s less cold than previous models had indicated. However, from the 26 through the 29, possible bitterly cold air could dive southward into the lower 48. At this point, though, there’s little indication of this air mass moving into California.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Low to mid 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/95%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%
Actual Humidity January 15, 2019: Delano, 92%/37% Porterville, 98%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .16, Parlier .22, Blackwell .28, Lindcove .23, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .21, Delano .31 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 55/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1067 -374
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.5 +4.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.54 season. or -1.02, Month to Date: 1.21 +.12
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.61, or -.91. Month to Date: .31 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 503, Parlier, 517 , Arvin, 446 Shafter, 523 Stratford, 506, Delano 512, Lindcove, 762, Porterville, 1016
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 48 / 0.10 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 45 / 0.16 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.13 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 41 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 44 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 41 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 55 / 43 / 0.12 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 52 / 45 / 0.08 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.07 7.08 117 3.52 58 6.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.57 5.57 105 3.25 61 5.32 13.11
MERCED 0.38 5.25 103 1.99 39 5.08 12.50
MADERA 0.05 3.84 73 1.31 25 5.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.05 3.50 77 1.23 27 4.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.05 2.75 62 1.68 38 4.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 1.59 63 0.88 35 2.52 6.47
BISHOP T 1.63 73 0.20 9 2.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 5.14 100 2.13 41 5.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 5.34 107 2.16 43 5.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.10 5.34 100 1.95 36 5.36 13.95
Next report: Thursday morning, January 17