January 19, 2019
Summary: There is a great deal of dense fog over portions of Fresno, Kings, and Tulare Counties with pockets of fog elsewhere. High clouds have been streaming over the northern half of California overnight, inhibiting fog development further north. The air aloft warmed significantly over the past 24 hours with the freezing level now up to 13,100 feet. Weak upper level high pressure is several hundred to the west of San Francisco this morning with the weak ridge extending over California. This will be a short lived situation as a trough of low pressure will quickly move into northern California Sunday and into central California late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. this system will push a fast moving cold front through the valley later Sunday night accompanied by light rain and gusty northwesterly winds behind the front.
The winds aloft Monday night and Tuesday will briefly be from north to south, spreading a cooler air mass over the region. Where it clears Tuesday through Thursday mornings, local frost is likely, but with that strong northerly flow aloft, we’ll also see upslope clouds develop along the valley facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains, more than likely extending well out into the valley Tuesday morning.
A strong and large upper high will begin to build over the eastern Pacific beginning Tuesday and it will persist through the remainder of the week. With the descending motion of the air under the high, a warm air inversion will develop, setting the stage for widespread fog and low clouds midweek and beyond.
Most of the models show a ridge over the western one-fourth of the U.S. all the way the rough the end of the month, though it’s a bit shaky to go out that far, but we will go from a periodic wet weather regime to a prolonged dry one starting Monday. Temperatures later in the week above the valley floor will certainly be above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by the fog coverage.
Forecast: Areas of fog this morning. Becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning with patchy fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon with light rain becoming likely during the late afternoon hours, continuing for a time Sunday night. mostly to partly cloudy Monday and cooler. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Saturday with extensive night and morning fog and extensive afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
Madera 60/42/61/45/56 | Reedley 61/42/61/45/55 | Dinuba 59/41/61/45/55 | |
Porterville 63/41/61/45/57 | Lindsay 62/41/63/44/56 | Delano 63/44/61/45/55 | |
Bakersfield 63/46/64/46/56 | Taft 64/49/66/48/57 | Arvin 64/44/66/47/55 | |
Lamont 64/43/66/46/57 | Pixley 62/42/61/44/55 | Tulare 60/40/61/45/55 | |
Woodlake 61/42/61/44/56 | Hanford 62/42/61/45/56 | Orosi 60/41/61/44/55 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/56 |
Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 33/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 34/57 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 39/57 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 43/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 25 through January 31: A massive upper ridge will be over the eastern Pacific and western one-fourth of the U.S. during this period with cold, arctic air funneling southeastward over the Rockies and points eastward, but not affecting California. Temperatures will be determined by fog and low clouds, but above the valley floor, temperatures will be above average. The chance of rain during this time frame is very low.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will generally be less than 6 MPH through Sunday morning with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday afternoon and evening will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. winds later Sunday night through Monday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds will decrease Monday night with light winds returning Tuesday.
Rain: The chance of light rain will begin to increase by late Sunday afternoon and will become likely Sunday evening, possibly ending after midnight. This will be a fast moving event with most locations north of Kern County recording only about .10 to .20. Over the valley portion of Kern County, less than .10 can be expected. Expect dry weather to begin Monday and continue for a week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings. From Tuesday through Thursday, widespread low to mid 30s are likely as a cooler and drier air mass rides down the valley behind a cold front which will move through Sunday night. upslope clouds will no doubt develop over the eastern and southern portions of the valley Monday with rapidly clearing skies along the west side. Where it clears Tuesday morning, there is a chance of upper 20s in the very coldest, low lying locations. Where cloud cover prevails, above freezing conditions will, of course, be the norm. with strong upper level high pressure capping the valley beginning Tuesday and remaining for the next week to ten days, any night will have low to mid 30s. On the flip side, with a strong warm air inversion developing, widespread fog and low clouds will no doubt become a factor as the week wears on. At any rate, nothing dangerous is expected. Still monitoring the possible arctic outbreaks to our east and no model at this point is projecting any of this cold air being injected into California.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/95%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity January 18, 2019: Delano, 100%/68% Porterville, 98%/61%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .26, Parlier .28, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .27, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .23, Delano .35 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 73/24. Average Temperatures: 55/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1092 -409
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.8 +5.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.00 season. or -.77, Month to Date: 1.67 +.37
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.37. Month to Date: .97 +.29
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 503, Parlier, 517 , Arvin, 449 Shafter, 525 Stratford, 506, Delano 514, Lindcove, 766, Porterville, 1044
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 5:11 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 51 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 49 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 50 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 59 / 46 / 0.09 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 50 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 64 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / 0.04 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 62 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 7.69 122 3.66 58 6.30 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 6.32 113 3.36 60 5.57 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.00 113 2.00 38 5.32 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.47 82 1.31 24 5.44 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.00 84 1.23 26 4.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.32 71 1.68 36 4.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 86 0.88 33 2.64 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.23 138 0.20 9 2.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.59 104 2.20 41 5.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.35 120 2.16 41 5.27 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 113 1.95 35 5.63 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon, January 19