January 20, 2019
Summary: Showers are rapidly spreading southeastward over northern California ahead of the fast moving cold front which will race down the valley during the late afternoon and evening hours. The front will be joined by generally light rain and strong, gusty winds. A deep low will develop over the Great Basin tonight and Monday morning with a north/south jet stream zipping along at about 130 knots. This jet will be over California with rapidly falling pressures over Nevada. Strong, gusty winds can be expected just about everywhere from late afternoon through Monday morning.
As the jet stream moves eastward and pressure differences begin to relax, winds will begin to subside Monday afternoon and evening. Behind the front, a considerable amount of upslope clouds will bank up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and, to a lesser extent, the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County.
A strong ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific Tuesday and will become the dominant player for the rest of the week. By Wednesday, warm subsiding air associated with the high will create a strong warm air inversion, setting the stage for extensive fog and low clouds. It’s possible the low clouds could persist all the way through the day after midweek.
As far as the longer range outlook is concerned, the weather pattern looks very benign with a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific and western one-third of the U.S. creating above average temperatures, at least above the valley floor, with temperatures on the valley floor being governed by the fog and low clouds.
The first blast of arctic air into the Midwest arrived yesterday with more to follow later in the week. Models continue to indicate this bitterly cold air will stay to our east.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. Light rain spreading down the valley later this afternoon and early evening. Showers tonight, ending during the early morning hours. Expect strong, gusty, northwesterly winds from late afternoon through Monday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Monday. Mostly cloudy in the south valley Monday night and Tuesday morning with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Sunday with periods of high clouds at times. Look for increasing amounts of night and morning fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing from Wednesday through the weekend.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/44/54/33/52 | Reedley 63/45/55/33/52 | Dinuba 62/44/54/33/53 | |
| Porterville 64/45/55/33/53 | Lindsay 63/44/54/32/52 | Delano 63/45/55/34/54 | |
| Bakersfield 65/46/54/39/54 | Taft 65/47/56/40/54 | Arvin 65/45/54/40/53 | |
| Lamont 64/44/55/36/56 | Pixley 63/44/55/33/53 | Tulare 62/43/54/32/53 | |
| Woodlake 63/43/54/33/53 | Hanford 63/45/54/34/53 | Orosi 62/43/54/32/52 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
AM fog/PM sun 32/57 |
Thursday
AM fog/PM sun 34/56 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 40/55 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 42/54 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 42/54 |
Two Week Outlook: January 27 through February 2: A massive upper ridge will be over the eastern Pacific and western one-fourth of the U.S. during this period with cold, arctic air funneling southeastward over the Rockies and points eastward, but not affecting California. Temperatures will be determined by fog and low clouds, but above the valley floor, temperatures will be above average. The chance of rain during this time frame is very low.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds this morning will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH. Winds from late afternoon through Monday morning will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with local gusts to 40 MPH, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds Monday afternoon will decrease to 10 to 15 MPH with light to calm winds returning later Monday night through Wednesday.
Rain: Light rain will spread rapidly down the valley later this afternoon into the evening with a chance of light showers lasting through about 2:00 to 3:00am. A few lingering showers are possible early Monday morning, mainly near the foothills, otherwise Monday and the remainder of the week will have dry conditions. If models hold any accuracy, it will be dry through the following week, as well.
Rainfall totals could tally up to .25 in Madera County and eastern Fresno County. A rain shadow will develop again along the west side with perhaps a .10 to .15 in Kings and western Fresno County. In Tulare County, rainfall amounts will range between .10 and .20 with the heavier totals near the base of the foothills.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. On Tuesday through Thursday mornings, expect widespread low to mid 30s with the possibility of low lying unprotected regions dropping down to 27 to 29 degrees. On Tuesday morning, I anticipate there will be a good amount of upslope clouds against the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with generally clear skies towards the center and west side of the valley. The fact that it is the first night after a system passage means it will be chaotic with mixing. In areas where the clouds remain packed in, readings will be above freezing. In those areas that clear, frost will no doubt occur. There’s a higher risk of below freezing weather Wednesday and Thursday mornings as relatively cold air will be on the valley floor. The wild card will be increasing amounts of fog as a strong warm air inversion sets up. Fog could last all day long in some areas, especially from Thursday on. Monitoring the arctic plunges into the lower 48, we find the first one dove in yesterday. There will be more to follow after midweek, but models have been cooperating nicely in keeping high pressure over the western one-third of the U.S., so no chance of that air mass making it into our region.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 70%/95%, Bakersfield: 55%/90%
Actual Humidity January 19, 2019: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .25, Parlier .28, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .27, Arvin .64, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .26, Delano .33 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 55/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1104 -417
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 50.0 +5.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.00 season. or -.84, Month to Date: 1.67 +.30
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.40. Month to Date: .97 +.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 508, Parlier, 519 , Arvin, 456 Shafter, 531 Stratford, 511, Delano 520, Lindcove, 777, Porterville, 1059
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 5:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:02
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 7.69 120 3.66 57 6.39 14.06
MODESTO T 6.32 112 3.38 60 5.65 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.00 111 2.16 40 5.40 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.47 81 1.43 26 5.52 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.00 83 1.36 28 4.84 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.32 71 1.72 37 4.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 85 1.03 39 2.67 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.23 136 0.20 8 2.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.59 102 2.22 41 5.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.35 118 2.20 41 5.36 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.38 112 1.97 35 5.71 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/January 21