January 25, 2019
Summary: Looking at infrared satellite imagery this morning, we find that the fog covers considerably more real estate that in previous mornings. There are wide areas of fog extending from just north of the Kern County line all the way northward into the lower Sacramento Valley. Even so, the lion’s share of the fog is still up and down the center of the valley. Most, if not all, the fog will burn off by early afternoon.
Upper level high pressure remains anchored just off the west coast. Surface high pressure remains over the Great Basin which is keeping the flow off shore. This will actually increase over the weekend as the surface high strengthens a bit.
In the meantime, the off shore high will shift a bit further east and will be overhead Saturday and Sunday. By the time we get into early next week, the high will again shift a bit further off shore. During the second half of the weekend, high clouds will begin to overrun the top of the high, leading to variable high clouds at times. The high is projected to continue its dominance through about Thursday of next week, although variable amounts of mid and high level clouds will stream overhead from time to time.
Beginning Friday, which is February 1st, models are still projecting a change. What kind of change remains to be seen as various solutions continue to show up on models. The new two week outlook encompassing the first week in February is still calling for above average precipitation along with above average temperatures as the flow over the eastern Pacific and into California will be generally out of the west or southwest.
Forecast: Areas of fog, mainly towards the center of the valley and mainly north of Kern County this morning. Otherwise expect hazy sunshine this afternoon. Areas of fog and/or low clouds later tonight and Saturday morning. Areas of fog and/or low clouds Sunday morning. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear with high clouds mixing in Saturday night and Sunday. Variable cloudiness at times Sunday night through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading to a slight chance of rain Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/35/63/39/65 | Reedley 62/36/63/38/65 | Dinuba 61/34/62/37/64 | |
| Porterville 63/36/64/38/65 | Lindsay 63/33/64/37/66 | Delano 64/37/66/38/66 | |
| Bakersfield 65/41/69/43/70 | Taft 64/44/70/46/70 | Arvin 65/38/70/39/70 | |
| Lamont 65/38/69/40/69 | Pixley 65/35/64/37/66 | Tulare 62/34/63/39/64 | |
| Woodlake 62/35/64/38/64 | Hanford 62/36/64/39/64 | Orosi 62/34/63/38/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy, 40/63 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 42/65 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 42/66 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 48/66 |
Friday
Slight chance of rain 48/66 |
Two Week Outlook: January 31 through February 6: Models for this time frame show a number of different solutions, ranging from dry to wet. The best course of action is to call for a chance of precipitation during this time frame with a west or southwest flow aloft. This would result in temperatures that are near to slightly above average.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Monday with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Thursday of next week. Beginning Friday, there are various model solutions ranging from dry to wet. Some models do suggest a trough of low pressure will approach from the west, moving inland about Friday. The best course of action at this time is to introduce a slight chance of rain for Friday in the forecast. Beyond Friday, it appears there will be at least a chance of rain later the following week, though models are again inconclusive.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but near to just slightly above in the coldest, low lying frost pockets. For now, there’s nothing short or medium term suggesting a cold weather pattern so expect above freezing conditions for the next week to possibly longer.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 50%/80%
Actual Humidity January 24, 2019: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .43, Blackwell .43, Lindcove .36, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .42, Porterville .33, Delano .38 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 75/24. Average Temperatures: 56/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1190 -426
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 49.5 +4.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.74, Month to Date: 2.09 +.40
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.27, or -.58. Month to Date: .97 +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 561, Parlier, 568 , Arvin, 496 Shafter, 577 Stratford, 565, Delano 566, Lindcove, 849, Porterville, 1145
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:05 am Sunset: 5:18 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:10
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.91 116 3.95 58 6.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.35 105 3.53 58 6.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.12 106 2.17 38 5.77 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.58 78 1.43 24 5.86 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.42 86 1.36 26 5.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.33 67 1.72 35 4.94 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.27 80 1.03 36 2.85 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.46 138 0.20 8 2.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.80 98 2.39 41 5.90 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.36 110 2.20 38 5.79 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.41 104 1.97 32 6.14 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/January 25