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Forecast

January 26, 2019/report

 

January 26, 2019

Summary: The center of circulation of upper level high pressure is only about 100 miles off shore and will move overhead today through Sunday.  The freezing level went up roughly 1,000 feet overnight and now stands at 13,300 feet above Vandenberg.  Most locations on the valley floor are up 2 to 3 degrees over 24 hours ago with the exception of Bakersfield which is up 7.  Once again, there is a considerable amount of fog and low clouds up and down the valley, mainly north of Kern County.  Above the fog, there is a thin layer of cirrus clouds based at near 25,000 feet. These clouds will continue to overrun the high, possibly becoming thick enough Sunday and Monday to dim the sun from time to time.

 

The high will build far to the north Sunday night and Monday which, in part, will send the coldest air mass in possibly 5 years into the center of the country.  Some models for Wednesday and Thursday of next week indicate overnight lows between 40 and 50 below in North Dakota and Minnesota.  We, however, will enjoy relatively mild conditions with readings into the 60s each day.

 

A pattern change will finally begin Thursday night and Friday of next week as the high will break down and a large low will approach the California coast.  Some models are actually suggesting an AR will be flowing our way late Sunday and Monday of the following week.  Other models aren’t pointing towards such a wet time frame, however.  At any rate, at the very least the chance of rain will tend to increase next weekend.  The flow aloft will generally be out of the west to southwest, keeping temperatures well above average for this time of year.

 

Forecast: The areas of fog will burn off during the late morning and early afternoon hours, revealing a mix of high clouds and sunshine this afternoon through Sunday.  The fog may be more patchy Sunday morning.  There will be variable mid and high level clouds at times interspersed with periods of mostly clear skies Monday through Thursday.  Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.  A chance of rain Friday night and Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 62/38/63/40/62 Reedley 63/38/63/40/63 Dinuba 62/37/63/39/61
Porterville 65/37/66/39/65 Lindsay 65/36/65/38/63 Delano 65/39/65/41/64
Bakersfield 68/45/69/47/66 Taft 70/46/70/48/66 Arvin 68/41/69/42/65
Lamont 68/39/69/41/67 Pixley 66/38/63/40/64 Tulare 62/37/63/40/61
Woodlake 65/37/65/39/64 Hanford 64/38/63/40/63 Orosi 65/36/65/39/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

44/65

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy

48/65

Thursday

Mostly cloudy

49/63

Friday

Cloudy

50/65

Saturday

Chance of rain

48/64

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 2 through February 8:  This model shows the highest risk of precipitation anywhere in the lower 48 right at central and southern California.  With a west to southwest flow and a potentially juicy air mass, temperatures should run well above average.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this  model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Tuesday with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through at least Thursday night.  models are becoming more interesting with time for Friday through Monday of the following week.  Some show a low just off the California coast Friday, possibly moving precipitation inland Friday night and Saturday.   A couple of models even suggest the possibility of an atmospheric river of air (AR) moving into California Sunday night and Monday which would be really cool!

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 weeks.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s.  Kern, mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 45%/80%

Actual Humidity January 25, 2019: Delano, NA,  Porterville, 99%/61%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 60%  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .38, Parlier .43, Blackwell .46, Lindcove .37, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .35, Delano .40 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 51, Delano 51

 

Record Temperatures: 72/24. Average Temperatures: 57/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1206 -429

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 49.5 +4.6

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.81, Month to Date: 2.09 +.33

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  2.27, or -.61.  Month to Date: .97 +.05

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 573,  Parlier, 580 ,  Arvin, 508 Shafter, 588  Stratford, 576, Delano 579, Lindcove, 860, Porterville, 1162

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:05 am  Sunset: 5:19 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:11

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  63 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  63 /  35 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  62 /  31 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  62 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  62 /  36 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  64 /  35 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  62 /  34 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  37 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.91   114    3.99    58     6.91    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.35   103    3.55    58     6.16    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.12   105    2.29    39     5.82    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    4.58    78    1.55    26     5.90    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    4.42    85    1.64    31     5.23    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.33    67    1.78    36     4.97    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.27    79    1.10    38     2.88     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.46   137    0.20     8     2.52     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.80    97    2.51    42     5.98    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.36   108    2.30    39     5.87    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.41   103    2.02    32     6.23    13.95

 

Next report:  Saturday afternoon/January 26