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Forecast

January 28, 2019/report

January 28, 2019

Summary: Upper level high pressure extends from just off the North American coast with the northern rim of the high stretching as far  north as the Arctic Circle.  This is allowing bitterly cold air to slide southward from the northern reaches of Canada into the Midwest.  Thankfully, we have that high shielding us from this arctic blast.  Some locations on Wednesday and Thursday mornings could hit fifty below in Minnesota and North Dakota.

 

In the meantime, our weather will evolve into a different pattern this week.  In the short term, variable cloudiness will continue over the area through Wednesday.  Models show a rather compact low skirting the California coast Wednesday night and Thursday morning, spreading showers into central California.  Right now, this does  not appear to be a gully washer, but it will clear the way to a trough of low pressure digging southward along the west coast from the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday.  Rain will be likely over the weekend.

 

A second low will dive southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska, reaching California Sunday into Monday for another chance of showers.  This will issue in a colder air mass with temperatures sliding below average beginning Sunday and lasting well into next week.

 

At this time, next week’s pattern is unclear, but we may have to consider the possibility of local frost early next week, depending on how this pattern evolves.  The two week outlook this morning shows a better than even chance of rain for southern California with a lesser chance for northern and central California.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Wednesday with a chance of sprinkles Wednesday.  Showers likely Thursday through Friday morning.  Partly cloudy Friday afternoon.  Increasing cloudiness Friday night leading to periods of rain Saturday and Saturday night.  there will be a continuing chance of showers Sunday and Monday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/42/64/45/62 Reedley 64/41/63/45/63 Dinuba 62/43/62/44/62
Porterville 65/41/63/44/64 Lindsay 64/42/63/45/63 Delano 65/45/66/44/64
Bakersfield 66/49/68/48/65 Taft 66/51/67/50/66 Arvin 67/44/68/48/66
Lamont 66/45/68/48/65 Pixley 65/41/63/44/63 Tulare 63/42/63/45/62
Woodlake 63/42/63/45/63 Hanford 64/43/63/45/62 Orosi 64/42/63/44/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Thursday

Showers likely

50/60

Friday

PM showers

48/61

Saturday

Rain likely

49/59

Sunday

Chance of rain

39/57

Monday

Chance of rain

35/57

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 4 through February 10:  This model is not as strong on the chance of precipitation for central California.  It does call for above average rain for southern California and the Desert Southwest with no more than an even chance of rain for northern and central California.  Temperatures should range near to marginally below average.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this  model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be at or less than 6 MPH through Thursday with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  A compact low pressure system is projected by models to skirt down the California coast Wednesday night and Thursday.  For the first time in a while, models are actually consistent so showers appear likely for late Wednesday night and Thursday.  Friday may be dry, but the chance of rain will increase again Friday night through Saturday night as a rather robust trough of low pressure digs southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.  A second low will also move out of the Gulf of Alaska, reaching northern and central California possibly Sunday through Monday for another chance of showers.  After Monday, we should have a few days of dry weather.  Models for the latter part of next week and beyond are rather inconclusive so we’ll go with a dry forecast for that period and wait for more consistency.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing each night for the remainder of the week.  Models show a colder air mass diving southward behind a wet weather system which will move through Saturday.  A second system is expected to be right on its heels Sunday, issuing in a colder air mass which could result in below freezing temperatures by Monday.  For now, that’s in the low confidence category as periods of precipitation and cloud cover may keep conditions above freezing.  It does not, by any means, appear to be a critical air mass, but one which could lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern, mid to upper 40s.

Humidity: Hanford: 65%/100%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%

Actual Humidity January 27, 2019: Delano, 100%/63%,  Porterville, 98%/62%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 40%  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .41, Parlier .47, Blackwell .49, Lindcove .41, Arvin .49, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .37, Delano .45 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 50, Delano 49

 

Record Temperatures: 78/23. Average Temperatures: 57/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1234 -438

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 49.6 +4.6

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 4.42 season. or -.95, Month to Date: 2.09 +.19

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  2.27, or -.69.  Month to Date: .97 -.03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 593,  Parlier, 598 ,  Arvin, 525 Shafter, 606  Stratford, 595, Delano 601, Lindcove, 883, Porterville, 1194

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:03 am  Sunset: 5:21 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:14

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  68 /  40 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  66 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  65 /  39 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /  38 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  65 /  43 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  38 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1557 /  68 /  43 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  66 /  38 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.91   112    3.99    56     7.09    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.35   100    3.55    56     6.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.12   104    2.29    39     5.91    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    4.58    77    1.55    26     5.98    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    4.42    82    1.64    31     5.37    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    3.33    66    1.78    35     5.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.27    77    1.10    37     2.96     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.46   135    0.20     8     2.57     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    5.80    94    2.51    41     6.15    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.36   105    2.30    38     6.05    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.41   100    2.02    32     6.41    13.95

 

Next report:  Monday afternoon/January 28