January 31, 2019
Summary: This compact little low pressure system has pretty much obeyed orders and is now centered near Orange County. Heaviest precipitation in the valley was over the southwestern corner. Taft, for example, recorded .92 and Bakersfield just under a half inch. Much lighter amounts were the rule on the east side of the valley. Generally speaking, the closer you got to the Sierra Nevada, the less precipitation fell. Porterville recorded only .06.
The rain is finally pulling out of the south valley and will be over in all areas during the next hour or two. In southern California, heavy rain and numerous thunderstorms have been reported with anywhere from one to three inches over Los Angeles, Ventura, and Orange Counties.
Next up is a massive low in the Gulf of Alaska which will be just off the northern California coast west of San Francisco Saturday morning. The proper recipe is in order for a blockbuster winter storm as large amounts of tropical moisture is connected along the frontal band out over the Pacific Ocean. It will be energized by a 110 knot jet stream over central California later Friday night and Saturday. This will really ratchet up the rain machine along the Sierra Nevada with two to four inches expected along the entire range with flooding a distinct possibility. Above 8,000 feet, as much as 5 feet of new snow may fall between Friday and Saturday nights.
Lots of isobars show up on the surface model. Isobars are lines of equal pressure. The more isobars there are, the stronger the winds may be. very strong differences in pressure will set up by Friday evening, increasing Friday night and Saturday morning. This does seem to be the proper configuration for strong winds over portions of the Kern County valley floor. Winds near Arvin and especially near Mettler and Wheeler Ridge and all the way west to Taft should see winds in excess of 50 MPH with the winds near the bottom of the Grapevine possibly exceeding 70 MPH. Winds will also crank up along the west side of the valley with gusts nearing 50 MPH not out of the question. The Sierra Nevada typically acts as a buffer for winds along the east side of the valley. Some models even there indicate winds out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH. However, in Fresno and Madera Counties, wind gusts to 40 to 45 MPH cannot be ruled out. The center of this monster won’t move inland until Saturday afternoon, finally allowing winds to die off. Showers, though, will continue through Saturday night.
This whole mess will move into the Great Basin Sunday only to be replaced by a colder low, allowing snow levels to drop to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Just about the time this system shifts eastward, another system with its origins in western Canada will dive into northern and central California Monday for periods of showers which could last all the way into Tuesday morning. By midday Tuesday, upper level high pressure will finally begin to build in from the west for what appears to be several days of dry weather.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Friday morning with areas of fog developing. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon. Rain spreading over the valley by evening. Rain at times Friday night through Saturday, locally heavy along the east side. Expect strong, gusty winds out of the southeast Friday night and for a good part of Saturday. Showers tapering off later Saturday night but increasing again by late morning Sunday. Periods of showers Sunday afternoon through Monday night with a chance of showers for a time Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/61/52/59 | Reedley 43/63/53/57 | Dinuba 42/61/52/58 | |
| Porterville 43/63/53/59 | Lindsay 41/63/52/59 | Delano 44/63/53/60 | |
| Bakersfield 47/67/55/60 | Taft 47/65/55/60 | Arvin 47/65/54/61 | |
| Lamont 45/65/54/60 | Pixley 44/63/53/59 | Tulare 43/62/52/58 | |
| Woodlake 42/62/53/60 | Hanford 44/63/54/60 | Orosi 43/62/53/59 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will remain light through early Friday afternoon. By late afternoon, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, increasing Friday night to 15 to 35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH along the west side and locally elsewhere, continuing for much of Saturday. Over the valley portion of Kern County, winds Friday night through at least midday Saturday will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 30 to 40 MPH with stronger gusts. Near the base of the Tehachapi extending from near Arvin westward all the way to Taft, gusts in excess of 50 MPH are certainly possible with near 70 MPH gusts not out of the question, especially below the Grapevine. These winds will finally die off later Saturday afternoon as the storm pushes inland, decreasing to 10 to 20 MPH by late afternoon. Winds Saturday night through Sunday will be generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range with stronger gusts.
Rain: The rain has finally ended over the valley portion of Kern County this past hour. A few rainfall amounts as of 2:00pm are: Bakersfield .43, Mettler .47, Taft .92, Shafter .14, Tulare .09, Porterville .06, Fresno .13, Madera .18, and Harris Ranch .36.
The chance of rain will begin to pick up quickly late Friday afternoon and evening and possibly become heavy at times in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, especially from roughly Porterville north. On the east side, locally heavy rain at times will continue through Saturday. I do anticipate rain shadows along the entire western San Joaquin Valley and over the valley portion of Kern County. Even so, with the amount of tropical moisture entrained in this storm, .33 to .50 is possible in Kern County and along the west side and upwards to an inch along the east side near the foothills and possibly more.
The rain will break into showers late Saturday afternoon and evening, dying off by Sunday morning only to increase again by midday Sunday through Monday night with a chance of showers lasting into Tuesday morning. Dry weather will finally return Tuesday afternoon and, if models are correct, will last through at least next Friday.
Frost Discussion: There are three storm systems that will pound central California from Friday night through early Tuesday. The last will be the coldest with its origins in western Canada. The flow behind that system will be north to south right into northern and central California. Low to mid 30s should be widespread Wednesday morning with a chance of upper 20s in the usual trouble spots. This, of course, will be contingent on residual cloud cover, and possible fog conditions which could keep temperatures milder. Even so, this appears to be the potential for that time frame and we can ditto that for Thursday with at least minor modification Friday.
Next report: Friday morning/February 1