February 4, 2019
Summary: As expected, scattered thunderstorms are popping at this hour, mainly towards the center and eastern side of the valley north of Kern County, though there was a cell near Delano this past hour. Just got a report from a grower near Orange Cove of hail covering the ground and local flooding. These storms will be most numerous over the next couple of hours then will wane as the daytime heating process shuts down.
The last cold front is now moving into the northern San Joaquin Valley and will spread numerous showers over the areas this evening. Periods of showers will continue through Tuesday as the main very cold low drops into northern and central California. Snow levels in the surrounding mountains will drop to near 2,000 feet Tuesday morning and possibly as low as 1,500 feet during the afternoon in heavier showers. Thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening and, like today, will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and hail.
Showers will taper off Tuesday night with dry and cold weather arriving Wednesday. The flow aloft between upper level high pressure several hundred miles off shore and the exiting low will be out of the north, driving very cold air down the valley. This will lead to a late season freeze. Details are discussed below in the frost section.
Weak high pressure will be over the area Thursday through Friday morning then the next cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California over the weekend for an increasing chance of light showers. On paper, this system appears to be pretty anemic as far as precipitation is concerned, except for the Sierra Nevada where lift may help out.
Beginning Wednesday of next week, we could see another very wet pattern develop as a low parks off the Oregon/northern California coast with the jet stream flanked underneath the low, possibly steering more storms our way. The latest two week model shows the greatest risk of precipitation anywhere in the U.S. over the southern half of California along with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Showers this evening with a chance of scattered thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Periods of showers later tonight through Tuesday evening. A chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through the early evening hours. Like today, any thunderstorms will include localized heavy rain and small hail. A small funnel cloud or two would not be a total shock. Showers ending later Tuesday night with partly to mostly cloudy conditions later in the night through Wednesday morning. Clearing and cold Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness later Friday with a chance of light showers later Friday night through Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/51/30/51 | Reedley 41/52/31/51 | Dinuba 39/52/32/51 | |
| Porterville 40/52/32/52 | Lindsay 39/51/30/52 | Delano 41/51/32/53 | |
| Bakersfield 42/52/33/53 | Taft 43/50/34/53 | Arvin 41/51/33/53 | |
| Lamont 42/51/33/53 | Pixley 40/51/31/52 | Tulare 39/50/30/52 | |
| Woodlake 39/51/29/52 | Hanford 40/51/31/53 | Orosi 39/50/29/52 | |
Winds: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds will be out of the west to northwest Tuesday at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing later Tuesday evening and becoming light after midnight. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: From a weather standpoint, it’s been quite an exciting afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are popping at various locations through the center and along the east side of the valley, mainly north of Kern County. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue through the early evening hours with localized heavy rain and hail being the main threats. Numerous showers will spread down the valley this evening as the third and final cold front moves through. As the very cold parent low moves into northern California Tuesday, periods of showers will continue with a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms again. Like today, thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will begin to taper off by the late evening hours with most of the action ending by midnight. Dry weather will return Wednesday through most of Friday then another cold weather system will be off the northern California coast Saturday through Monday morning with what appears to be the likelihood of light rain north of Kern County and a chance of light showers in Kern County.
Models for later next week are showing the possibility of a moist west/southwest flow flanked underneath a strong low off the Oregon coast. This could bring more wet weather to central California and more heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada.
Frost Discussion: It is becoming more and more likely that we have a late season freeze just ahead. I’m not worried about tonight as clouds and showers will keep temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. It appears Wednesday morning will be quite variable with conditions just about everywhere being governed by cloud cover along with local wind conditions. Even so, where skies clear Wednesday morning and winds are calm, coldest locations could drop to 27 to 29 degrees in river bottom and like locations. The risk factor will increase considerably Thursday morning. By then, most areas should have mostly clear skies with little to no wind. With a very cold air mass, and dew points in the upper 20s to the mid 30s, lows Thursday morning in river bottom and like locations could drop to 26 to 28 degrees with an isolated area out there somewhere briefly down to 25. Most locations will range from 28 to 33. As of now, I would anticipate temperatures Friday morning to be no more than a degree or two warmer unless cloud cover begins to show up ahead of the next Pacific storm which will spread light precipitation over the valley this weekend and into early next week. Because of that, above freezing conditions can be expected Saturday into Monday. Models for next week are still inconclusive. Some point to dry weather while others point to wet conditions. All have one thing in common, and that’s temperatures that are well below average for early February.
Next report: Tuesday morning/February 5