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Forecast

February 6 2019/report

 

February 6, 2019

Summary: Skies cleared overnight in all but the extreme southeastern corner of the valley.  This allowed strong radiational cooling to occur with frost stations ranging from 28 to 31 overnight.  More in the frost discussion below.

 

A northerly flow is now in place along the back side of a very cold low which is now in the Great Basin.  Overall, weak upper level high pressure will govern our weather through Thursday night with mostly clear skies and very cold overnight low temperatures with cool afternoons.  Over the weekend, yet another cold low will drop south/southeast from the Gulf of Alaska and center itself near San Francisco by Saturday morning.  This will spread light precipitation over central California Friday night and Saturday with a chance of showers continuing Saturday night.  a much stronger and very cold low will develop over western Canada and will sweep into the Pacific Northwest and eventually northern California Sunday and Monday.  This storm will stay a bit further north, but even so it will spread showers over the area with very low snow levels Sunday into Monday.

 

A weak ridge will then fill in Monday night through Wednesday.  Beginning Thursday and beyond, on paper anyway, the pattern will become very interesting.  There’s some indication a strong low pressure system will develop off the Pacific Northwest coast and northern California about Thursday or Friday with the possibility of an atmospheric river of air sweeping from southwest to northeast into central and southern California for the potential of heavy precipitation.  It will be interesting to see if this pans out.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies with patchy night and morning fog through Friday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon.  Light showers becoming likely Friday night through Saturday.  A slight chance of showers Saturday night.  light showers becoming likely again Sunday into Monday morning.  Partly cloudy Monday afternoon and night.  mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 52/26/54/29/58 Reedley 51/27/54/29/58 Dinuba 51/26/53/28/57
Porterville 53/27/54/29/59 Lindsay 51/26/54/28/58 Delano 53/28/55/30/60
Bakersfield 53/31/57/33/61 Taft 53/32/57/35/62 Arvin 53/28/58/30/62
Lamont 52/28/59/30/61 Pixley 53/27/57/29/60 Tulare 51/26/54/28/57
Woodlake 52/27//54/29/58 Hanford 52/29/54/30/58 Orosi 52/26/53/28/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Showers likely

39/56

Sunday

AM showers possible

37/57

Monday

Chance of showers

35/54

Tuesday

Mostly clear

33/56

Wednesday

Increasing clouds

35/58

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 13 through February 19:  This model indicates a continuation of well below average temperatures as the eastern Pacific high remains several hundred miles off shore, allowing more disturbances and periodic shots of cold air to move in from the west or northwest.  The chance of rain during this time frame appears relatively high.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally less than 8 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Friday night and Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  Dry conditions will prevail through Friday.  Light showers will again spraed over the valley Friday night and continue on and off through Saturday.  There will be a break then the chance of showers will again increase Sunday afternoon through Monday.  If all goes as planned, dry weather will return Monday night and continue through Wednesday.  On paper, the paper becomes quite interesting for Thursday and Friday and possibly beyond.  The possibility of an atmospheric river of air is there on some models moving into central and southern California.  We are still more than a week out, so that’s shaky information, at best, but even the thought of it is somewhat tantalizing.

Frost Discussion: As of 6:30am, the coldest station I could find was Fowler at 25 degrees.  West Porterville was second at 27.  The vast majority of other locations ranged between 28 and 31 with the exception of the extreme south where readings were between 32 and 35.  Tonight potentially could be a degree or two colder.  Strong radiational cooling will occur under generally clear skies with a very cold air mass in place and dew points ranging in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.  coldest river bottom and like locations will drop to 32 degrees around 9:00 or 10:00pm and 28 degrees at around 2:00am or thereafter and will not rise to above freezing until after 9:00am Thursday morning.  The coldest locations could drop down to 24 to 25 degrees tonight with most locations between 27 and 30 with hillsides generally in the low to mid 30s.  the inversion tonight will be a little better with temperatures being 3 to 6 degrees warmer at 34 feet at most locations.

Looking ahead to Friday morning, temperatures will slowly moderate with temperatures being 1 to 3 degrees warmer unless cloud cover from an advancing cold low moves in, but for now that appears doubtful.  Look for above freezing conditions Saturday through Monday due to cloud cover and showers.  Tuesday and Wednesday of next week is up for grabs at this time, but local frost is not out of the question.  It appears active weather will again arrive after Thursday, keeping temperatures above freezing.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

27

Strathmore

27

McFarland

25

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

27

Lindsay

26

Exeter

26

Famoso

28

Madera

26

Belridge

26

Delano

27

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

26

Orange Cove

27

Lindcove

26

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

27

Rosedale

27

Jasmine

27

Arvin

27

Lamont

28

Plainview

27

Mettler

32

Edison

28

Maricopa

27

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

26

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing                

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s.  Kern, low to mid 30s.

Humidity: Hanford: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 45%/90%

Actual Humidity February 5, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 97%/58%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .36, Parlier .38, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .27, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .2, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 54, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 74/29. Average Temperatures: 59/39

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1344 -485

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 51.5 +3.5

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 5.92 season. or -.11, Month to Date: 1.36 +.99

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  3.02, or -.32.  Month to Date: .34 +.12

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 633,  Parlier, 630 ,  Arvin, 553 Shafter, 636  Stratford, 637, Delano 613, Lindcove, 926, Porterville, 1312

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:56 am  Sunset: 5:31 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:32

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  54 /  40 / 0.05 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  50 /  40 / 0.58 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  51 /  40 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  51 /  38 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  52 /  45 / 0.05 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  50 /  42 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  50 /  38 / 0.04 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1546 /  51 /  41 / 0.08 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1554 /  50 /  44 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  50 /  36 /    M /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                         T    9.55   120    3.99    50     7.96    14.06

MODESTO                          T    7.89   110    3.55    50     7.15    13.11

MERCED                        0.02    7.40   114    2.29    35     6.48    12.50

MADERA                        0.03    5.85    90    1.55    24     6.47    12.02

FRESNO                        0.02    5.92    98    1.64    27     6.03    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    4.78    88    1.78    33     5.41    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.01    3.02    90    1.10    33     3.34     6.47

BISHOP                           T    4.27   152    0.20     7     2.81     5.18

SALINAS                       0.09    8.11   116    2.51    36     6.97    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.05    9.41   137    2.30    33     6.87    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.08    9.05   124    2.02    28     7.32    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Wednesday afternoon/February 6