February 8, 2019
Summary: This morning, on the way to the doctor’s office, I received a ticket for doing 72 in a 55. My first ticket since the mid 70s. My wife does not feel sorry for me (she keeps laughing at me), nor does the rest of my family, but I will not allow this to cloud my weather responsibilities. The air mass ahead of our next cold Pacific storm is cold itself. The latest freezing level over Oakland was 4,100 feet and 5,300 feet over Vandenburg. As of the time of this writing, precipitation had spread inland down the coast to almost San Luis Obispo and will spread inland along the west side of the valley from the west/northwest this evening with periods of rain tonight and for a time Saturday morning. The associated cold front with this storm will move through after midnight and, with a cold and relatively unstable air mass behind the front, isolated thunderstorms with localized heavy rain and small hail are possible Saturday afternoon. There will be a very brief break between storm number one and storm two which will spread precipitation over central California Sunday, continuing Sunday night. The origins of this storm are originally from the Yukon Territory of Canada, but the low has been over water long enough that it’s modified it somewhat. The low will be centered over Oregon and northern California Sunday then it will move into the Great Basin Monday.
Weak upper level high pressure will take over for at least a short time Monday through Tuesday night with the possibility of more frost concerns. For Wednesday and beyond, models are really all over the place. Some were suggesting the possibility of an atmospheric river of air event late Wednesday into Friday. Now, at least one of these same models is now showing a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska possibly spreading cold showers over the region late next week. It appears it will take at least a couple of days for models to figure things out, so for now we’ll go with at least a chance of rain from midweek on and leave it at that.
Forecast: Showers spreading in from the west/northwest this evening, continuing on and off through Saturday morning. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Saturday night after a chance of evening showers then periods of showers again Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday night. Mostly cloudy Wednesday through Friday with a chance of rain each day.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/56/42/53 | Reedley 41/57/43/53 | Dinuba 40/55/42/52 | |
| Porterville 40/57/42/52 | Lindsay 39/56/41/53 | Delano 42/56/42/54 | |
| Bakersfield 43/58/43/54 | Taft 43/58/43/53 | Arvin 42/58/43/54 | |
| Lamont 42/57/42/54 | Pixley 41/56/42/53 | Tulare 40/56/42/52 | |
| Woodlake 40/55/42/52 | Hanford 41/55/42/52 | Orosi 40/56/41/53 | |
Winds: Winds will generally be out of the southeast tonight at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible, mainly from Fresno County northward and along the west side. Winds Saturday through early Sunday morning will continue out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. By Sunday afternoon, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Sunday night with light winds Monday.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, rain had already spread not some of the coastal valleys to our west and northwest. They’ll march through the valley this evening, continuing into Saturday morning. The air mass will be cold and relatively unstable behind the front, so there will be a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall from this first storm will generally range between .25 and .33 over much of Madera and Fresno Counties and possibly parts of Tulare County. A tenth or two cannot be ruled out over the valley portion of Kern County.
Storm two will spread showers over the valley again Sunday and Sunday night with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon and evening. It now appears the rain will end by sunrise Monday morning.
Precipitation amounts from this system will be similar to the first with .25 to .33 in Fresno and Madera Counties and at least northern Tulare County and another tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will prevail Monday and probably through Tuesday night. My confidence in any forecast for Wednesday on is very low due to the uselessness of models at this time. Some which had been hinting at a pineapple connection for Wednesday through Friday have backed off on that suggestion while others now say yes and hold onto that idea. One model shows a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska sliding into California later next week.
The best course of action at this point is to keep a chance of showers/rain in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday of next week and wait and see how it all plays out.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and Saturday night. There is a chance we could see upper 20s and lower 30s again as early as Monday morning with a greater risk Tuesday morning. A very cold Canadian low will exit the premises late Sunday night, leaving yet another cold air mass in its wake. Clouds and wind conditions may very well keep temperatures in the low to mid 30s Monday morning, but where it clears, and winds are calm, upper 20s would certainly be possible in river bottom and similar historic cold locales.
The risk factor will be greater Tuesday morning due to a better chance of clear skies and calm winds.
Wednesday and beyond should theoretically have above freezing temperatures, however, as discussed in the rainfall section, models are quite variable.
Next report: Saturday morning/February 9