February 9, 2019
Summary: The first of two cold low pressure systems went right through the valley. The center of circulation is now moving into the Sierra Nevada and will move into western Nevada this afternoon. Even so, the air behind the low and its associated cold front is relatively cold and unstable. A small chance of isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers exists during the late morning and afternoon hours. There will be a short break this evening then a much stronger and much colder system with origins in northwest Canada will slide southeastward from its current position near Portland, Oregon to southern Oregon and northern California Sunday through Sunday evening. Showers will be widespread and, with very cold unstable air moving in behind the cold front, thunderstorms are a definitely possibility Sunday afternoon and evening. Like we’ve experienced in previous storms, any thunderstorms that do develop will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Snow levels with this system may drop to about 2,000 feet by late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
A weak ridge will temporarily fill in from the west Monday through Tuesday with a very cold blast of modified arctic air moving into the valley Sunday night and Monday brings us to our next concern. That is, our second freeze in as many weeks. Potentially, we could see low temperatures equal to our earlier freeze which resulted in widespread mid to upper 20s. more is discussed below in the frost section.
By Wednesday, a new pattern will develop as yet another cold low moves out of the Gulf of Alaska, eventually settling off the northern California coast. Some models are back to a pineapple connection on Wednesday and Thursday. However, there is so much model variance that my confidence level for this time frame remains low. If this does take shape, flooding would definitely be a concern in the mountains, and even locally on the valley floor.
From there we move up to Friday through Sunday where the possibility of another storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California exists. The two week model is still adamant for a high risk of rain between the 16th and 22nd with below average temperatures continuing.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through evening. Mostly cloudy but dry to around midnight. Expect numerous showers after midnight through Sunday with a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms from Sunday afternoon through the early evening. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers ending Sunday night. becoming mostly clear Monday through Tuesday, however there will be upslope clouds along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley for a time Monday morning. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of rain after midnight through Wednesday night, possibly locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Thursday through Thursday night. showers becoming likely again Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/41/52/28/55 | Reedley 57/42/51/29/55 | Dinuba 55/40/52/27/53 | |
| Porterville 57/41/53/29/52 | Lindsay 57/40/52/28/53 | Delano 58/43/53/29/51 | |
| Bakersfield 57/43/53/30/52 | Taft 58/43/53/32/53 | Arvin 57/41/53/30/51 | |
| Lamont 58/41/53/29/52 | Pixley 57/41/53/28/52 | Tulare 56./40/52/27/52 | |
| Woodlake 56/41/53/28/51 | Hanford 58/41/52/29/53 | Orosi 56/41/52/28/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 28/55 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 42/57 |
Thursday
Showers 43/57 |
Friday
Showers likely 43/58 |
Saturday
Showers likely 42/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model has an unusually strong signature for rain for the southern half of California. These storms will likely be of the colder variety as temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight and Sunday morning will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Sunday afternoon and evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts at times. Winds Sunday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions by sunrise. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be genera.ly less than 8 MPH periods of near calm conditions Monday night.
Rain: We had a good blast of rain move through the valley during the predawn hours. Now that the cold front has moved through, a cold and relatively unstable air mass will generate scattered showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. There will be several hours of dry weather this evening then showers will become widespread later this evening through Sunday. The risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be high as very cold, unstable arctic air moves in above. Any of these storms that do fire up will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Another quarter to half inch of rain is possible tonight through Sunday evening north of Kern County with upwards to a quarter of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County. There will be a dry period for most of Sunday night through Tuesday. It won’t last long, though, as rain will begin to increase possible as soon as late Tuesday night but for sure Wednesday and Thursday. My confidence level remains low for midweek and beyond. Some models which had been suggesting no pineapple connection for Wednesday are now back on the positive side of this equation. That would cause heavy rain at much higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, possibly creating flood concerns. Another low will move out off the Gulf of Alaska and in California Friday through Saturday for the possibility of more rain. The two week model remains adamant regarding above average rainfall all the way through the 22nd.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The first of two storms is affecting central California today. The second system, which is stronger and has its origins over the Yukon Territory of Canada, will move through central California tonight and Sunday with showers and thunderstorms. The air associated with this system is extremely cold for so late in the season. Once the low moves into the Great Basin late Sunday night and Monday, cold air wrapping around the system’s backside will drive modified arctic air into California.
Where skies clear Monday morning and winds subside, mid to upper 20s are certainly possible. It’s entirely possible that upslope clouds will remain along the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. Where these clouds hang tough, low to mid 30s would be the norm.
The risk factor goes up Tuesday morning as it appears now that skies will be clear with little to no wind. Coldest locations may drop to 26 to 28 degrees with isolated pockets such as river bottoms possibly a degree or two colder. Most flat terrain locations should range between 28 and 31.
Active weather will return Wednesday through Friday with clouds and rain maintaining above freezing conditions. For now, the weather for next weekend looks milder with above freezing conditions.
Models for the following week still show systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska or even western Canada for a continuation of active weather and well below average temperatures.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Actual Humidity February 8, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .43, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .35, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .35, Porterville .32, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 52, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 60/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1409 -469
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 48.3 +0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 6.32 season. or +.07 Month to Date: 1.76 +1.17
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.02, or -.45. Month to Date: .34 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 676, Parlier, 671 , Arvin, 599 Shafter, 667 Stratford, 676, Delano NA, Lindcove, 969, Porterville, 1370
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 5:35 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 58 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 30 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 55 / 31 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 9.55 116 3.99 48 8.24 14.06
MODESTO T 7.89 106 3.55 48 7.41 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.40 110 2.29 34 6.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.85 88 1.55 23 6.68 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.92 95 1.64 26 6.25 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 86 1.78 32 5.58 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.02 87 1.10 32 3.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 4.27 147 0.20 7 2.90 5.18
SALINAS 0.22 8.33 115 2.51 35 7.24 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 9.41 132 2.30 32 7.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 9.05 119 2.02 26 7.63 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/February 9