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Forecast

February 10, 2019/report

February 10, 2019

Summary: Rain is widespread from Modesto down as far south as northwest Kern County.  A frontal system is currently in the northern San Joaquin Valley.  Behind the front in the Sacramento Valley, temperatures have dropped into the upper 30s, compared to mid 40s at most locations from Madera southward.  The current temperature at Shaver Lake is just 27 degrees with heavy snow while Lodgepole was reporting 23.

 

The parent low is currently moving on shore near Eureka along the northwest coast while its associated cold front is moving steadily down the San Joaquin Valley.  Precipitation will be widespread for a time this morning then will taper off into showers during the second half of the day as a pool of very cold, unstable air follows the front.  It we get a bit of sunshine this afternoon, a few thunderstorms may fire up with localized heavy rain and small hail.  This system is cold enough for a few wet snowflakes to fall over the valley floor, especially late this afternoon and early evening.

 

The whole mess will move east of the Sierra Nevada this evening as showers rapidly taper off with the exception of lingering snow showers over the surrounding mountains.  Where it clears tonight, widespread upper 20s will prevail with coldest pockets down into the mid 20s.  this is all detailed in the frost discussion below.

 

A weak ridge of upper level  high pressure will move in from the west, governing our weather later tonight through Tuesday.  As has been the case over the past six weeks, the dry weather will not last very long.  A milder Pacific storm will be off the northern California coast Wednesday with possibly a fragmented pineapple connection moving into central and southern California.  Much higher snow levels and potentially heavy rain over the Sierra could possibly cause an increasing chance of river flooding.

 

Models maintain a general westerly flow underneath high pressure through Friday which means there will be a chance of rain Thursday through Friday night.  over the weekend, a new low will drop southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and will park off the northern California coast.  Due to model disparity, it’s unclear at this time how far south precipitation will spread.  Medium range models are still showing the storm door opening from time to time next week as does the two week model which goes out all the way to the 23rd.

 

Forecast: Rain spreading south this morning.  Showers this afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  Showers, ending this evening then clearing from the northwest overnight with the possible exception of southeast Tulare County and Kern County.  Becoming  mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.  Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a small chance of rain after midnight.  Rain likely at times Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly locally  heavy at times.  There will be a chance of showers Thursday through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 50/28/52/28/56 Reedley 51/29/53/28/57 Dinuba 50/27/52/27/55
Porterville 51/28/52/28/56 Lindsay 50/27/53/27/56 Delano 51/29/52/29/57
Bakersfield 51/31/53/31/58 Taft 49/30/51/31/60 Arvin 48/30/52/28/59
Lamont 51/29/52/29/57 Pixley 51/28/52/28/56 Tulare 51/27/52/27/55
Woodlake 51/29/52/28/56 Hanford 51/29/52/29/57 Orosi 51/28/52/28/55

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Rain likely

44/58

Thursday

Showers likely

45/57

Friday

Chance of showers

42/58

Saturday

Chance of showers

38/58

Sunday

Chance of showers

37/58

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 17 through February 23:  This model has an unusually strong signature for rain for the southern half of California.  These storms will likely be of the colder variety as temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds for a time this morning will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north and along the west side.  Winds this afternoon through the early evening hours will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  After midnight, winds will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Monday and Tuesday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  Currently, rain is widespread from northern Kern County up through Merced.  The cold front, as of the time of this writing, is moving through Fresno County with a narrow band of heavy rain.  That rain will push southward into the south valley over the next few hours.  Later this morning and this afternoon through the early evening, there will be scattered showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  These storms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail with possibly even a few snow flakes mixed in.  showers will rapidly taper off this evening.  Dry weather will return from the late evening through Tuesday evening.

 

Rainfall amounts from last night through this evening will likely total between .25 and .50 north of Kern County and upwards of .25 over the valley portion of Kern County.  The chance of rain will begin to increase again after midnight Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night, possibly locally heavy at times.  From Thursday all the way through Sunday of next week, there will be a chance of showers at any given time as we will remain under a very moist westerly flow.  Models for next week show an open storm door for a chance of more systems to move in.  ditto that for the two week model.

Frost Discussion: A cold front is marching down the valley this morning.  Temperatures even in the San Francisco Bay Area have dropped into the mid to upper 30s as has the Sacramento Valley.  Current temperatures from Madera south are in the mid 40s.  As that colder sector of the storm follows the front, modified arctic air will push down the valley, setting the stage for two very cold nights.  Most of your typical flat terrain locations will chill into the 27 to 30 degree range with isolated pockets down to 25 to 26.  But that’s only in unprotected river bottom and similar type terrain.  It is possible, mainly in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County, that enough upslope clouds will remain tonight, possibly allowing temperatures to stay up into the low to mid 30s.  Most of the models, however, show most of the valley clearing out so that’s not a guarantee.

The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet being 1 to 4 degrees warmer.  Coldest locations tonight could reach the freezing mark as early as 9:00pm and 28 degrees about 2:00 to 3:00am, rising above freezing between 8:30 and 9:00am Monday morning.

Tuesday morning has the potential to be equally as cold if not a degree or two colder under generally clear skies with little to no wind.  The fortunate part of this little freeze is that it’s just a two night evening.  The remainder of the week will be above freezing with periodic showers and abundant cloud cover.  It’s possible local frost could occur next Sunday and Monday mornings, but at this time that appears to be low risk.  Medium range models continue to show below average temperatures all the way through the 23rd.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

29

Ducor

30

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

28

Belridge

27

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

30

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

31

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

26

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

29

Arvin

30

Lamont

29

Plainview

28

Mettler

33

Edison

30

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s.  low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 60%/90%

Actual Humidity February 9, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 92%/54%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 60%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .45, Parlier .49, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .39, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .37, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 51, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 75/29. Average Temperatures: 61/39

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1424 -470

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 48.4 +0.1

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 6.33 season. or +.01. Month to Date: 1.77 +1.11

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  3.07, or -.45.  Month to Date: .39 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 687,  Parlier, 678 ,  Arvin, 606 Shafter, 669  Stratford, 685, Delano NA, Lindcove, 976, Porterville, 1387

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:52 am  Sunset: 5:35 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:40

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  40 / 0.13 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  42 / 0.41 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 / 0.32 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  40 / 0.29 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  51 /  46 / 0.05 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  57 /  43 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  58 /  40 /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  56 /  43 / 0.13 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1555 /  57 /  43 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.01    9.83   118    3.99    48     8.33    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    8.04   107    3.55    47     7.50    13.11

MERCED                        0.18    7.67   113    2.29    34     6.81    12.50

MADERA                        0.04    5.98    89    1.55    23     6.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.01    6.33   100    1.64    26     6.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.12    5.10    90    1.78    32     5.64    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.05    3.07    87    1.10    31     3.52     6.47

BISHOP                        0.02    4.29   147    0.20     7     2.92     5.18

SALINAS                       0.05    8.56   117    2.51    34     7.33    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.09    9.66   134    2.30    32     7.22    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.09    9.26   120    2.02    26     7.74    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Sunday afternoon/February 10