February 11, 2019
Summary: For the eleventh of February, it was extremely cold last night with every frost station between 27 and 30 degrees with one location at a toasty 31. Bitter cold was evident overnight over the Sierra Nevada. As of 7:00am it was minus 2 at Shaver Lake and minus 18 at Tuolumne Meadows. The very cold storm system responsible for the chilly weather has now raced eastward into Utah and Arizona, leaving clear skies in its wake. Weak upper level high pressure will govern our weather for the next 48 hours with generally clear skies and one more very cold night.
Beginning Tuesday night, the pattern will become quite interesting. An elongated low stretching from western Canada to 1,000 miles out over the Pacific Ocean will drop southward well off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. In the meantime, a huge cloud mass evident on satellite imagery this morning will move east/northeast into California underneath this low. Embedded within this low will be waves of low pressure accompanied by locally heavy rain from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night. snow levels will jump from their low of around 1,500 feet last night to more than 8,000 feet Wednesday. Obviously, that has the potential to create rising rivers and streams as heavy rain falls on a massive snow pack.
The pattern will turn showery Thursday as the colder sector of the main low moves in. over the weekend, a new low will skirt the Canadian coast and move into northern and central California Saturday night and Sunday for the potential of more light precipitation, but returning snow levels into possibly the higher foothills.
Medium range models for next week are somewhat inconclusive. They do indicate temperatures will remain below average with the possibility of weather systems moving in from the Gulf of Alaska. Some models, though, portray the storm track as being a bit further north. The two week model shows more moisture trying to move into southern and central California from the subtropics. Yes, this has been an interesting winter and looks like it will continue to be one.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. rain becoming likely before sunrise. Rain at times Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly locally heavy at times, mainly north of Kern County and along the east side. Showers Thursday and Thursday night. there will be a chance of showers at any given time Friday through Sunday. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/27/58/42/59 | Reedley 54/28/58/43/60 | Dinuba 53/27/57/42/59 | |
| Porterville 54/28/57/44/61 | Lindsay 53/27/58/44/61 | Delano 54/29/59/44/60 | |
| Bakersfield 54/33/61/50/62 | Taft 55/35/61/51/63 | Arvin 54/30/61/46/63 | |
| Lamont 54/29/61/50/62 | Pixley 54/28/59/47/62 | Tulare 53/27/56/42/59 | |
| Woodlake 53/28/58/44/60 | Hanford 53/28/59/44/60 | Orosi 53/28/58/43/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Showers likely 55/66 |
Friday
Chance of showers 53/59 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 40/60 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 35/56 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/58 |
Two Week Outlook: February 18 through February 24: This model has an unusually strong signature for rain for the southern half of California. These storms will likely be of the colder variety as temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH at times Wednesday through Thursday with stronger gusts possible, especially along the west side.
Rain: Enjoy the next 48 hours of dry weather as there is more rain on the way, and lots of it. The chance of precipitation will begin to increase late Tuesday night with periods of rain Wednesday through Wednesday night, possibly heavy at times, especially along the east side north of Kern County. The usual rain shadow along the Coast Range will affect the west side and Kern County, so amounts in those regions will be considerably less. The rain will turn to showers Thursday as the colder sector of this first storm arrives. On Friday, a new low, this one a cold low, will drop south skirting the Canadian coast line then racing into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Friday through Sunday. This means there will be a chance of mainly light showers anytime Friday through Sunday with the greatest potential for showers being Saturday night and Sunday.
Dry weather will return for at least a couple of days early next week. It’s difficult to nail down a particular pattern for later next week. There is a chance more activity could move out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting California, from Thursday on, but some models are showing high pressure moving in from the west, putting an end to rainfall.
Frost Discussion: With the types of temperatures we had last night, you would think it was late December or January. As of 7:00am, every frost station but one was ranging between 27 and 30 degrees. One location was the sole outlier. Even though temperatures will be a tad warmer this afternoon, dew points will generally be in the low to mid 30s and, with a clear sky, strong radiational cooling will be the result.
Coldest readings tonight will be roughly 26 to 27 degrees in those traditional cold, low lying locations. Most locations will be between 28 and 30. Hillsides tonight will range in the low to mid 30s.
The inversion overnight will be a bit better than last night with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer.
Fortunately, this will be the last night of mid to upper 20s for a while. The next chance of local frost will arrive Sunday and Monday. On paper, the air mass moving in behind a cold system this weekend is chilly, but not quite as cold as we’re currently dealing with. Low to mid 30s would not be a surprise with a small chance of upper 20s.
Medium range models still indicate the eastern Pacific high will be further off shore than is typical for this time of year. That could mean more action moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California with well below average temperatures continuing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 55%/85%
Actual Humidity February 9, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 94%/55%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .45, Parlier .47, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .39, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .40, Porterville .37, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 53, Porterville 50, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 73/28. Average Temperatures: 61/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1446 -464
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.9 -0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 6.65 season. or +.26. Month to Date: 2.09 +1.36
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.19, or -.37. Month to Date: .61 +.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 701, Parlier, 689 , Arvin, 624 Shafter, 682 Stratford, 693, Delano NA, Lindcove, 991, Porterville, 1411
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 5:36 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:42
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 53 / 45 / 0.32 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 42 / 0.32 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.17 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 42 / 0.11 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 43 / 0.12 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 41 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 50 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 39 / 0.23 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 53 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.26 10.25 122 3.99 47 8.42 14.06
MODESTO 0.26 8.30 109 3.55 47 7.58 13.11
MERCED 0.46 8.14 118 2.29 33 6.89 12.50
MADERA 0.28 6.30 92 1.55 23 6.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.32 6.65 104 1.64 26 6.39 11.50
HANFORD 0.17 5.27 92 1.78 31 5.70 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.12 3.19 90 1.10 31 3.56 6.47
BISHOP 0.02 4.31 146 0.20 7 2.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.71 9.34 126 2.51 34 7.42 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.41 10.11 138 2.30 31 7.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.37 9.63 123 2.02 26 7.84 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/February 11