February 12, 2019
Summary: After a very cold night with widespread mid to upper 20s, a temporary round of much warmer and very wet conditions is at hand. The absolute worst case scenario will develop tonight through Thursday night along the Sierra Nevada. There is an elongated low stretching from Washington west/southwest about 2,000 miles out over the Pacific Ocean. This is a very cold system which will join forces with a powerful low northeast of Hawaii and a pineapple connection flanked underneath the low which is moving towards the California coast. Satellite imagery this morning is very telling with a huge mass of clouds covering much of the eastern Pacific just about ready to make its move onshore in California.
As this river of air is lifted by the Sierra Nevada, tremendous amounts of rainfall will occur over the entire Sierra Nevada with snow levels rocketing up to 8,000 feet and higher. Some models indicate anywhere from 7 to 10 inches of rain could fall from tonight through Wednesday night. massive rain such as this on top of a tremendous snow pack will likely lead to flooding in rivers and streams along the entire range.
Heavy amounts of rain will also occur on the valley floor with the possibility of anywhere from .75 to 1.50 north of Kern County and away from the west side with lesser amounts elsewhere. The first phase of this attack is already entering northern California with a plume of tropical air moving into northern California from Monterey northward. Most of the deeper tropical moisture will not arrive until after midnight tonight although some night showers are possible later this evening. By Wednesday evening, colder air will begin to mix in with this mess from that low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest which fortunately will lower snow levels back down to about 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
We may see a brief break in the action late Thursday night and Friday morning. Our attention will then be returned to cold weather as a very cold low from the Gulf of Alaska will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Friday and Saturday, spreading light showers over the area with a return to very low snow levels in the surrounding mountains. This low will begin to move eastward Sunday and will carve out a very cold trough over the interior west by Monday, result in a continuation of well below average temperatures.
It looks like dry weather will return next week as the eastern Pacific high begins to shift back towards the coast. However, a cold trough will remain over the interior west, keeping California under a north/northwest flow aloft and maintaining well below average temperatures. Even the two week model, which now shows dry weather, indicates well below average temperatures through the 25th.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. A chance of showers later this evening. The chance of rain will increase rapidly after midnight with rain, heavy at times, late tonight through Wednesday night. showers Thursday, tapering off late Thursday night and Friday morning. Showers again Friday afternoon through Saturday night with very low snow levels. A chance of showers Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 58/44/59/53/62 | Reedley 58/43/59/54/61 | Dinuba 57/43/57/53/60 | |
Porterville 60/44/60/54/63 | Lindsay 59/43/60/53/63 | Delano 59/44/60/55/63 | |
Bakersfield 61/49/63/56/65 | Taft 60/50/62/56/65 | Arvin 61/47/62/55/64 | |
Lamont 61/48/63/55/64 | Pixley 60/43/61/55/63 | Tulare 58/43/59/53/62 | |
Woodlake 59/44/59/54/62 | Hanford 58/43/60/54/63 | Orosi 58/43/59/54/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
PM showers 44/58 |
Saturday
Showers likely 40/56 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 33/53 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 31/56 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 31/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 19 through February 25: It’s been a while but this model is now indicating a high chance of dry weather during this time frame. This model does show a consistent northwest flow aloft which would mean a continuation of below average temperatures.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds today will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH tonight through Wednesday with gusts to 35 MPH possible and local gusts to 45 MPH near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains through Wednesday night. winds Thursday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, continuing Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: Worst case scenario is setting up for the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. As much as 7 to 10 inches of rain are likely from later tonight through Wednesday night as an atmospheric river of air with copious amounts of tropical moisture is lifted by the Sierra, creating a possible major flood event along the mountains’ rivers and streams. There is a chance of showers as early as this evening on the valley floor, but the deeper tropical moisture will not arrive until after midnight. By the early morning hours through Wednesday night, expect periods of rain, heavy at times. There will be the usual rain shadow headache along the west side and in Kern County. However, the moisture field is so deep that those areas may very well receive significant amounts of precipitation, as well.
As much as .50 or more could fall on the valley portion of Kern County and about .75 or more along the west side. Along the east side of the valley, especially closer to the foothills, well over an inch is certainly possible.
The rain will turn to showers Thursday with a brief break later Thursday night and Friday morning. The next very cold low will arrive with periods of much lighter showers Friday afternoon through Saturday night, possibly lasting into Sunday. Snow levels by the second half of the weekend could drop below 2,000 feet once again.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, however, as models beginning Monday and for all of next week are now leaning dry. Even the two week model is indicating a good chance of dry weather will continue.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through Saturday morning. On Sunday morning, we could see lower 30s but that will depend very much on cloud cover from a very cold low which will be moving through. There is another chance of at least upper 20s and lower 30s Monday and Tuesday of next week, in the wake of that very cold system. For now, it doesn’t appear to be quite as cold as the current air mass, but considering recent trends, stay tuned as that is certainly subject to change.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/75%
Actual Humidity February 11, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 96%/46%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .46, Parlier .49, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .42, Arvin .50, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .41, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 49, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1469 -456
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 47.3 -1.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 6.65 season. or +.19. Month to Date: 2.09 +1.29
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.19, or -.41. Month to Date: .51 +.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 717, Parlier, 705 , Arvin, 640 Shafter, 697 Stratford, 708, Delano NA, Lindcove, 1007, Porterville, 1430
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:49 am Sunset: 5:37 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.27 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 33 / 0.32 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 54 / 30 / 0.17 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 29 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 54 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 54 / 31 / 0.06 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 10.25 120 3.99 47 8.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 8.30 108 3.55 46 7.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 8.14 117 2.29 33 6.97 12.50
MADERA 0.00 6.30 91 1.55 22 6.89 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 6.65 103 1.64 25 6.46 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.27 91 1.78 31 5.76 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.19 89 1.10 31 3.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 4.31 145 0.20 7 2.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 9.34 125 2.51 33 7.50 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 10.11 137 2.30 31 7.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 9.63 121 2.02 25 7.94 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/February 12